Morning Notes – Friday April 27, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower but higher from NYSE close; moving sideways since 9:30 PM
  • Breaking above a horizontal channel on 6-minute chart; the 61.8% extension target is near 2675.00 and 100% extension target is near 2678.25
  • Odds are for an up to sideways move – watch for break above 2677.50 and below 2666.00 for change of fortune
  • Key economic data due
    • Advance GDP (2.3% vs. 2.0% est. ) at 8:30 AM
    • Advance GDP Price Index (2.0% vs. 2.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Employment Cost Index (0.8% vs. 0.7% est.) 209K vs. 230K est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed higher
  • European markets are mostly higher – Italy and Switzerland are down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/INR
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Gold
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Cocoa
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.990%, down from April 25 close of 3.024%;
    • 30-years is at 3.175%, down from 3.209%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.488%, down from 2.491%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.506, down from 0.533

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2653.97, 2647.16 and 2631.08
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2676.48, 2683.55 and 2698.79
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2671.50, the high at 3:00 AM and break below 2665.25, the low of 5:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2666.25 and the index closed at 2666.94 – a spread of about +0.50 points; futures closed at 2674.50 for the day; the fair value is -8.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is mixed – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -2.50; Dow down by -53.00; and NASDAQ up by +30.50

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Side-Down
  • 30-Min: Up-Side
  • 15-Min: Up-Side
  • 6-Min: Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on April 20 was a doji, almost like a shooting star;
  • Last week’s pivot point=2649.12, R1=2687.44, R2=2718.59; S1=2617.97, S2=2579.65; R1 pivot levels was breached;
  • An up week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
  • A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A relatively large green candle that gapped up at the open and did not close the gap; small lower shadow and larger upper shadow; three-day morning star pattern
  • Back within a symmetrical triangle after breaching its lower bound
  • Stochastic (13, 2, 3) is declining after making a divergence on April 18; %K attempting to cross over %D
  • At/blow 20-day EMA, which is below 50-day EMA 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Downtrend since 8:00 AM on April 18; lower lows and lower highs; rising since 10:00 AM on April 25; trying to break above a downtrend line from April 18 high;
  • Break below an uptrend line from April 2 lows did not last and price is back above it
  • RSI-9 mostly rising since 14:00 PM on April 24 from a low of 16.28; moving along 65 since 8:00 PM on April 26
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is crossing above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side-Down
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag at 1:30 PM on April 25; rising since 10:00 AM on April 25; moving sideways since 9:30 PM on April 26
  • The sequence of lower lows and lower highs since 11:00 AM on April 18 broke; an uptrend line from the lows of April 25 is broken by a sideway move
  • RSI is declining from 73.73 at 2:30 PM on April 26 but mostly staying above 50
  • At/above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Breaking above a downtrend line from 4:30 PM high on April 26
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is mostly moving sideways since 6:30 PM on April 26
  • The band is mostly narrow since 10:45 PM on April 26
  • RSI trended down from 2:30 PM on April 25 from 65 to 40 by 5:15 AM; it is rising since
  • is mostly above 40 since 10:15 AM on April 25; rising since 3:00 from a low of 40.61; above 50
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is moving up since 5:00 AM to above 70
  • Bias: Up-Side

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices advanced on Thursday April 26 in largely lower volume. Only Dow Jones Transportation Average declined in increased volume. Most also three-day morning star pattern. Most also gapped up on open and did not fill the gap.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Finance
  6. Utility
  7. Technology
  8. Heath Care
  9. Real Estate
  10. Telecom
  1. Industrials

 

Morning Notes – Thursday April 26, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; moving higher since 9:45 AM on April 25; new leg up since 3:00 AM
  • Forming a rounding bottom pattern on 30-min timeframe
  • Odds are for a bounce from recent lows with increased volatility – watch for break above 2655.00 and below 2647.00 for more clarity
  • Key economic data due
    • ECB Press Conference at 8:30 AM
    • Core Durable Goods (0.0% vs. 0.,5% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Durable Good Orders (2.6% vs. 1.6% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Unemployment Claims (209K vs. 230K est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong and Sydney were down; Tokyo, Mumbai and Seoul were up
  • European markets are higher
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/INR
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
    • NatGas
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.992%, down from April 25 close of 3.024%;
    • 30-years is at 3.176%, down from 3.209%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.483%, down from 2.491%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.509, down from 0.533

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2631.08, 2621.37 and 2612.67
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2645.30, 2657.99 and 2683.55
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2654.25, the high at 7:30 AM and break below 2639.50, the low of 3:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2638.75 and the index closed at 2639.40 – a spread of about +0.75 points; futures closed at 2644.50 for the day; the fair value is -5.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up +8.50; Dow by +61.00; and NASDAQ by +48.50

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Side-Down
  • 30-Min: Down-Side
  • 15-Min: Side-Up
  • 6-Min: Up-Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on April 20 was a doji, almost like a shooting star;
  • Last week’s pivot point=2649.12, R1=2687.44, R2=2718.59; S1=2617.97, S2=2579.65; R1 pivot levels was breached;
  • An up week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
  • A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A relatively small green real body with smaller upper shadow and very large lower shadow
  • Back within a symmetrical triangle after breaching its lower bound
  • Stochastic (13, 2, 3) is declining after making a divergence on April 18
  • Below 20-day EMA, which is below 50-day EMA 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Downtrend since 8:00 Am on April 18; lower lows and lower highs; below a downtrend line from April 18 high; rising since 10:00 AM on April;25
  • Break below an uptrend line from April 2 lows did not last and price is back above it
  • RSI-9 mostly rising since 14:00 PM on April 24 from a low of 16.28; above 50
  • At/above20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side-Down
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag at 1:30 Pm on April 25; rising since 10:00 AM on April 25; forming a cup-with-handle pattern; approaching a resistance level at 2657.00
  • The sequence of lower lows and lower highs since 11:00 AM on April 18 broke
  • RSI is rising from 11.96 at 2:00 PM on April 24; between 40 and 65 since 8:00 Am on April 25; above 50
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is mostly moving sideways since 9:45 PM on April 24; trended up from 10:30 AM on April 25 to 10:45 PM and since then is slightly trending down
  • The band is mostly narrow since 9:30 PM on April 25
  • RSI is mostly above 40 since 10:15 AM on April 25; rising since 3:00 from a low of 40.61; above 50
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is moving up since 2:15 AM from a below 20 and is crisscrossing %D; above 80
  • Bias: Side-Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices were mixed on Wednesday April 25 in largely lower volume. NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 declined and others advanced. Only Dow Jones Transportation Average saw increased volume. Most also made doji like patter with very small upper shadows and larger lower shadows.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Industrials
  6. Utility
  7. Technology
  8. Heath Care
  1. Finance
  2. Real Estate
  3. Telecom

 

Morning Notes – Wednesday April 25, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower; moving within a symmetrical triangle on 30-minute timeframe;
  • Down bias on daily and lower degree timeframes
  • Odds are for a bounce with increased volatility – watch for break above 2637.00 and below 2618.00 for more clarity
  • No key economic data due

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed lower – Sydney was closed
  • European markets are lower
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • NatGas
    • Copper
    • Cotton
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cocoa
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.983% on April 24, up from April 23 close of 2.973%;
    • 30-years is at 3.168%, up from 3.144%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.491%, up from 2.439%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.504, up from 0.499

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2617.32, 2610.79 and 2586.27
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2637.05, 2644.73 and 2657.99
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2637.00, the high at 3:30 AM and break below 2618.25, the low of 7:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2633.75 and the index closed at 2634.56 – a spread of about +0.75 points; futures closed at 2635.25 for the day; the fair value is -1.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is mixed – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -6.50; Dow up by +20.00; and NASDAQ down by -20.75

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Side-Down
  • 30-Min: Down
  • 15-Min: Down-Side
  • 6-Min: Down

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on April 20 was a doji, almost like a shooting star;
  • Last week’s pivot point=2649.12, R1=2687.44, R2=2718.59; S1=2617.97, S2=2579.65; R1 pivot levels was breached;
  • An up week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
  • A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A large red candle with almost no upper shadow and a lower shadow that less than one third of the real body
  • At the lower bound of a symmetrical triangle
  • Stochastic (13, 2, 3) is declining after making a divergence on April 18
  • Below 20-day EMA, which is below 50-day EMA 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Declining since 8:00 Am on April 18 in steps; lower lows and lower highs; breaking below an uptrend line from April 2 lows; started another down turn at 8:00 PM on April 24 after a small bounce
  • RSI-9 falling since 6:00 AM on April 24 from a high of 68.35; at 25
  • Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side-Down
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Broke below a horizontal channel at 12:00 PM on April 24; achieved most extension targets
  • Lower lows and lower highs since 11:00 AM on April 18; below a downtrend line; forming a symmetrical triangle at the low end
  • RSI is rising from 11.96 at 2:00 PM on April 24 but still below 40
  • Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Down
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is sloping down since 9:30 PM on April 24 following s short bounce after a big decline
  • The band is mostly narrow since 9:30 PM
  • RSI is mostly below 50 since 9:00 AM on April 24
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crossing above %D after making a divergence
  • Bias: Down-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed down on Tuesday April 24 in increased volume. All made large red candle with almost no upper shadow and a lower shadow that was less half the size of the real body.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Utility
  2. Real Estate
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Industrials
  6. Finance
  7. Technology
  8. Heath Care
  9. Telecom

 

Morning Notes – Tuesday April 24, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; moving up since 2:30 PM on April 23
  • Breaking above a horizontal channel;
  • Down bias on daily, sideway bias on 2-hour charts and side-to-up bias lower degree timeframes
  • Odds are for an up day with increased volatility – watch for break above 2688.00 and below 2682.00 for more clarity
  • Key economic data due
    • CB Consumer Confidence (128.7 vs. 126.0 est.) at 10:00 AM
    • New Home Sales (694K vs. 625K est.) at 10:00 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Seoul was down
  • European markets are mostly higher – Spain is down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • AUD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CHF
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.973% on April 23, up from April 20 close of 2.951%;
    • 30-years is at 3.144%, up from 3.142%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.491%, up from 2.439%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.499, down from 0.512

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2657.69, 2645.05 and 2639.25
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2682.86, 2698.79 and 2702.84
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2688.00, the high at 6:30 AM and break below 2682.00, the low of 5:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2669.75 and the index closed at 2670.29 – a spread of about +0.50 points; futures closed at 2671.25 for the day; the fair value is -1.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +16.75; Dow by +159.00; and NASDAQ by +36.75

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Side-Up
  • 15-Min: Side-Up
  • 6-Min: Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on April 20 was a doji, almost like a shooting star;
  • Last week’s pivot point=2649.12, R1=2687.44, R2=2718.59; S1=2617.97, S2=2579.65; R1 pivot levels was breached;
  • An up week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
  • A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A small red harami spinning top candle within a larger red candle; at the middle of a symmetrical triangle;
  • At 20-day EMA; below 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Rising since 2:00 PM on April 23 after making a short double-bottom and after a decline that started at 8:00 AM on April 18 from a resistance zone;
  • Trending up since 2:00 PM on April 6
  • RSI-9 rising since 12:00 PM on April 19 from a low of 18.44 in zigzag manner; above 65
  • Above 20-bar EMA; at EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Rising since 2:30 PM on April 23; broke above a downtrend line from, the high of April 18; breaking above a horizontal channel with a 24 point height; the 61.8% extension target is near 2698.00 and the 100% extension target is near 2707.00
  • RSI is rising from 32.16 at 2:30 PM on April 23; broken above 65
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up since 9:30 PM on April 23 following a sideway move from 4:00 PM on April 20
  • The band was narrow from 9:45 PM to 4:00 AM and is expanding since then
  • RSI is mostly stayed between 40 and 65 since 6:15 AM on April 23; is above 65
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above 70
  • Bias: Side-Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Monday April 23 in lower volume. Most made a small harami candle within a larger red candle of Friday.

S&P 500, Dow Jones Transportation Average, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 closed lower.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Energy
  3. Utility
  4. Heath Care
  5. Real Estate
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Materials
  3. Industrials
  4. Finance
  5. Technology
  6. Telecom

 

Morning Notes – Monday April 23, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; moving up since 4:00 AM
  • At the upper bound of a symmetrical triangle on 30-minute chart
  • Down bias on daily and 2-hour charts; bias  is sideways to up on lower degree timeframes
  • Odds are for a choppy day – watch for break above 2778.25 and below 2666.50 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data due
    • Existing Home Sales (est. 5.55M) at 10:00 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Sydney and Mumbai are up
  • European markets are mostly higher – Italy and Switzerland are down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.970%, up from April 20 close of 2.951%;
    • 30-years is at 3.153%, up from 3.142%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.474%, up from 2.439%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.491, down from 0.512

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2660.61, 2645.05 and 2639.25
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2677.07, 2698.79 and 2702.84
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2681.00, the high at 1:00 AM and break below 2666.50, the low of 4:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2670.75 and the index closed at 2670.14 – a spread of about -0.50 points; futures closed at 2671.50 for the day; the fair value is -0.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +5.50; Dow by +48.00; and NASDAQ by +23.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Down
  • 15-Min: Down-Side
  • 6-Min: Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on April 20 was a doji, almost like a shooting star;
  • Last week’s pivot point=2649.12, R1=2687.44, R2=2718.59; S1=2617.97, S2=2579.65; R1 pivot levels was breached;
  • An up week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
  • A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A large red candle with almost no upper shadow and small lower shadow; %K of Stochastic (13, 2, 3) crossed below %D from over 95;
  • At the middle of a symmetrical triangle;
  • At 20-day EMA; below 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Declining since 8:00 AM on April 18 from a resistance zone; fallen back into a horizontal channel after a break above it which didn’t last
  • Trending up since 2:00 PM on April 6
  • RSI-9 rising since 12:00 PM on April 19 from a low of 18.44 in zigzag manner but still below 50
  • Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Declining from a high of 2718.50 at 7:30 AM on April 18 in a rounding top pattern; below a downtrend line; at the upper limit of symmetrical triangle; trending down with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows
  • RSI is rising from 35.72 at 5:30 AM on April 23
  • At/below 50-bar EMA, which is below 20-bar EMA
  • Bias: Down
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 4:30 PM on April 20 after mostly trending down from 12:30 AM on April 18
  • The band narrowed during Asian session and is expanding since 2:45 AM
  • RSI is moving up from a low of 27.17 at 4:00 AM;  is above 65
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above 70
  • Bias: Down-Side

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday April 20 in higher volume. Most major indices made a large red candle with almost no upper shad small lower shadow. For the week, major indices made an almost shooting star like candle, albeit after a very short – two weeks – rally. The volume for the week was mixed and only three sectors  Consumer Staples, Technology and Real Estate – declined..

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Industrials
  6. Technology
  7. Utility
  8. Heath Care
  9. Real Estate
  1. Finance
  2. Telecom