Morning Notes – Tuesday April 24, 2018

/ April 24, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; moving up since 2:30 PM on April 23
  • Breaking above a horizontal channel;
  • Down bias on daily, sideway bias on 2-hour charts and side-to-up bias lower degree timeframes
  • Odds are for an up day with increased volatility – watch for break above 2688.00 and below 2682.00 for more clarity
  • Key economic data due
    • CB Consumer Confidence (128.7 vs. 126.0 est.) at 10:00 AM
    • New Home Sales (694K vs. 625K est.) at 10:00 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Seoul was down
  • European markets are mostly higher – Spain is down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • AUD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CHF
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.973% on April 23, up from April 20 close of 2.951%;
    • 30-years is at 3.144%, up from 3.142%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.491%, up from 2.439%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.499, down from 0.512

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2657.69, 2645.05 and 2639.25
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2682.86, 2698.79 and 2702.84
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2688.00, the high at 6:30 AM and break below 2682.00, the low of 5:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2669.75 and the index closed at 2670.29 – a spread of about +0.50 points; futures closed at 2671.25 for the day; the fair value is -1.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +16.75; Dow by +159.00; and NASDAQ by +36.75

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Side-Up
  • 15-Min: Side-Up
  • 6-Min: Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on April 20 was a doji, almost like a shooting star;
  • Last week’s pivot point=2649.12, R1=2687.44, R2=2718.59; S1=2617.97, S2=2579.65; R1 pivot levels was breached;
  • An up week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
  • A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A small red harami spinning top candle within a larger red candle; at the middle of a symmetrical triangle;
  • At 20-day EMA; below 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Rising since 2:00 PM on April 23 after making a short double-bottom and after a decline that started at 8:00 AM on April 18 from a resistance zone;
  • Trending up since 2:00 PM on April 6
  • RSI-9 rising since 12:00 PM on April 19 from a low of 18.44 in zigzag manner; above 65
  • Above 20-bar EMA; at EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Rising since 2:30 PM on April 23; broke above a downtrend line from, the high of April 18; breaking above a horizontal channel with a 24 point height; the 61.8% extension target is near 2698.00 and the 100% extension target is near 2707.00
  • RSI is rising from 32.16 at 2:30 PM on April 23; broken above 65
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up since 9:30 PM on April 23 following a sideway move from 4:00 PM on April 20
  • The band was narrow from 9:45 PM to 4:00 AM and is expanding since then
  • RSI is mostly stayed between 40 and 65 since 6:15 AM on April 23; is above 65
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above 70
  • Bias: Side-Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Monday April 23 in lower volume. Most made a small harami candle within a larger red candle of Friday.

S&P 500, Dow Jones Transportation Average, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 closed lower.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Energy
  3. Utility
  4. Heath Care
  5. Real Estate
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Materials
  3. Industrials
  4. Finance
  5. Technology
  6. Telecom

 

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