Morning Notes – Tuesday March 20, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; moving up since 2:30 PM on Monday; at a downtrend line, a possible resistance
  • Odds are for a sideways to an up day – watch for break above 2729.00 and below 2716.25 for change of fortunes
  • No key economic data due

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were mostly up – Tokyo and Sydney were down
  • European markets are up
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Coffee
    • Cocoa
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Cotton
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.883% up from March 19 close of 2.845%;
    • 30-years is at 3.117%, up from 3.079%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.345%, down from 2.316%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.538, up from 0.529

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2694.59,2675.75 and 2664.83
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2725.54, 2734.32 and 2741.38
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2729.00, the high at 7:30 AM and break below 2716.25, the low of 5:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2716.25 and the index closed at 2712.92 – a spread of about +3.25 points; futures closed at 2722.75 for the day; the fair value is -6.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +3.25; Dow by +18.00; and NASDAQ by +1.75

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Down
  • 30-Min: Down-Side
  • 15-Min: Down-Side
  • 6-Min: Down-Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on March 16 was a small red body, with small no upper and lower shadows
  • Last week’s pivot point=2765.13, R1=2788.78, R2=2825.56; S1=2728.35, S2=2704.70; No pivot levels were breached;
  • A down week following an up week; second in last five weeks and fourth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A large red candle that gapped down at the open; no upper shadow and long lower shadow; breaking below a symmetrical triangle after breaking, and staying,  above it for few days; filled the upside gap of March 9
  • Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
  • Below 20-day EMA; and 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Broke below a downtrend line on March 14 at 10: AM; achieved all targets
  • Below a downtrend lien from the high of March 13; sequence of lower highs and lower lows since; bouncing off the low of 2697.25
  • RSI-9 moving up since 12:00 PM on March 19 from the low of 12.31; nearing 50
  • Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Down
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Broke below a horizontal trading channel at 4:00 AM ; achieved most extension targets
  • RSI bouncing from a low of 15.4 at 1:30 PM on March 19; since 3:30 PM
  • At 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 10:00 PM on March 19
  • The band narrowed since 10:00 PM
  • RSI is mostly between 40 and 65 since 3:30 PM on March 19
  • 6 and then declined below 20 at 4:00 PM; now back at 40
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K turned down from 97 at 7:00 AM
  • Bias: Down-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday March 19. in mixed volume from previous day. Most indices opened at the day’s high and then mostly moved lower and retracing a bit before the close thus forming a longer lower shadow. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite gapped down at the open and did not close the gap. Dow Jones Industrial Average made a three-day evening star pattern. Dow Jones Transportation Average formed a harami candlestick line and Russell 2000 made a bearish engulfing pattern.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Industrials
  6. Finance
  7. Technology
  8. Utility
  9. Heath Care
  10. Real Estate
  11. Telecom

 

Morning Notes – Monday March 19, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower; moving down since 11:30 AM on Friday; new leg down since 4:00 AM; bouncing up since 4:30 AM reaching a resistance
  • Odds are for a down day – watch for break above 2745.25
  • No key economic data due

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong and Sydney were up; Tokyo, Mumbai and Seoul were down
  • European markets are down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • NZD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Coffee
    • Cocoa
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Copper
    • Sugar
    • Cotton
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.867% up from March 16 close of 2.848%;
    • 30-years is at 3.100%, up from 3.080%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.312%, down from 2.295%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.555, up from 0.553

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2749.47, 2741.47 and 2722.65
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2757.80, 2763.03 and 2777.11
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2745.5, the high at 8:00 AM and break below 2738.00, the low of 7:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2753.75 and the index closed at 2752.01 – a spread of about +1.75 points; futures closed at 2756.00 for the day; the fair value is -2.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -13.25; Dow by -129.00; and NASDAQ by -77.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Side-Down
  • 30-Min: Down
  • 15-Min: Down
  • 6-Min: Down

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on March 16 was a small red body, with small no upper and lower shadows
  • Last week’s pivot point=2765.13, R1=2788.78, R2=2825.56; S1=2728.35, S2=2704.70; No pivot levels were breached;
  • A down week following an up week; second in last five weeks and fourth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A small red doji harami candle; staying just above the upper limit line of a symmetrical triangle that was broken to the upside on March 9 with a gap
  • Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
  • Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Broke below a downtrend line on March 14 at 10: AM; drooping down after moving sideways for many bars
  • RSI-9 moving down, from just above 50, since 8:00 AM on March 16
  • Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side-Down
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Broke below a horizontal trading channel at 4:00 AM ; 100% extension target is near 2726.00; a little bounce, from a low of 2739.25 at 4:30 AM, is finding resistance at the broken lower limit of the channel
  • RSI hovering around 40 with a down bias
  • At/below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Down
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down since 2:15 PM on March 16
  • The band expanded during the European session and is trimming the width since 9:00 AM
  • RSI hovered around 40 since 3:45 PM on March 16 and then declined below 20 at 4:00 PM; now back at 40
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K turned down from 90 at 8:00 AM
  • Bias: Down

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Friday March 16. in increased volume from previous day. However, the day’s range was small and most made a doji like pattern. Russell 2000 made a bullish engulfing pattern and Dow Jones Transportation Average made morning star pattern.

For the week, major indices were down. Most European and Asian indices closed higher for the week. Only two S&P 500 sectors, Utilities and Real Estate, were up for the week.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Utility
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Energy
  3. Materials
  4. Industrials
  5. Finance
  6. Technology
  7. Heath Care
  8. Real Estate
  9. Telecom

 

Morning Notes – Friday March 16, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways since 4:00 PM on Thursday
  • Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2760.75 and below 2750.25 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data:
    • Building Permits (1.30M vs. 1.32M est.) at 8:30
    • Housing Starts (1.24M vs. 1.29M est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Industrial Production (1.1% vs. 0.3% est.) at 9:15 AM
    • Capacity Utilization (78.1% vs. 77.7% est.) at 9:15 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were mostly down – Sydney and Seoul were up
  • European markets are mostly higher – Switzerland is down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD

Commodities:

Up Down
  • Crude Oil
  • Gold
  • Silver
  • Copper
  • Palladium
  • Cocoa
  • NatGas
  • Platinum
  • Sugar
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.832% up from March 15 close of 2.826%;
    • 30-years is at 3.062%, up from 3.061%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.287%, down from 2.291%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.545, up from 0.535

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2741.47, 2722.65 and 2701.74
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2763.03, 2777.11 and 2783.27
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2759.50, the high at 7:30 PM on March 15 and break below 2753.50, the low of 7:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2751.25 and the index closed at 2747.33 – a spread of about +4.00 points; futures closed at 2755.50 for the day; the fair value is -4.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +4.25; Dow by +3.00; and NASDAQ by +4.50

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Down-Side
  • 15-Min: Side
  • 6-Min: Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on March 9 was a large bullish engulfing candle, over a bearish engulfing candles, with almost no upper and lower shadows
  • Last week’s pivot point=2749.63, R1=2823.51, R2=2860.45; S1=2712.69, S2=2638.81; R1 pivot levels was breached;
  • An up week following a down week; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A small red body candle, a harami candle near the lows
  • Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
  • Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Broke below a downtrend line on March 14 at 10: AM; moving sideways since then
  • RSI-9 moving up since 10:00 AM on March 14
  • Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Moving  sideways since 11:30 AM on March 14
  • RSI between 40 and 65 since 10:00 PM on March 14
  • At/below 20-bar EMA, which is at/below 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 4:45 PM on March 14
  • The band is mostly narrow since NYSE Close on March 14
  •  RSI is mostly between 40 and 65 since mid-day on March 14
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is rising since 7:45 AM
  • Bias: Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly down on Thursday March 15. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average closed higher. The volume was lower than that on Wednesday.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Industrials
  2. Finance
  3. Technology
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Utility
  6. Heath Care
  7. Real Estate (Unch.)
  8. Telecom

 

Morning Notes – Thursday March 15, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways since 10:30 PM on Wednesday
  • Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2762.25 and below 2752.25 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data:
    • Unemployment Claims (6K vs. 227K est.) at 8:30
    • Empire State Manufacturing Index (22.5 vs. 14.9 est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (22.3 vs. 23.1 est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were mixed – Shanghai, Sydney and Mumbai were down; Hong Kong, Tokyo and Seoul were up
  • European markets are mostly higher – Spain and Switzerland are down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.812% down from March 14 close of 2.817%;
    • 30-years is at 3.050%, down from 3.058%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.266%, unchanged
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.546, down from 0.551

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2744.38, 2740.45 and 2728.05
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2762.89, 2777.11 and 2783.27
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2762.25.50, the high at 3:30 AM and break below 2752.25, the low of 7:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2754.25 and the index closed at 2749.48 – a spread of about +5.75 points; futures closed at 2754.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +3.00; Dow by +59.00; and NASDAQ by +6.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Down
  • 15-Min: Down-Side
  • 6-Min: Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on March 9 was a large bullish engulfing candle, over a bearish engulfing candles, with almost no upper and lower shadows
  • Last week’s pivot point=2749.63, R1=2823.51, R2=2860.45; S1=2712.69, S2=2638.81; R1 pivot levels was breached;
  • An up week following a down week; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A large red body candle that engulfed Monday’s red candle; just above the upper limit of  a symmetrical triangle that was broken to the upside; it may act as a support
  • Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
  • Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
  • Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Broke below a double top pattern; achieved the 100% extension target to the downside; turned down from the broken lower limit following a bounce;
  • Declining since 2:00 AM on March 12;
  •  RSI-9 declining since 2:00 AM on March 12; below a downtrend line
  • Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Moving  down since 9:30 AM on March 13; below a downtrend line
  • RSI between 40 and 55 since 10:00 PM on March 14
  • At 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Down
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 4:45 PM on March 14
  • The band is narrow since NYSE close
  •  RSI is between 40 and 65 since mid-day on March 14
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is rising since 6:45 AM
  • Bias: Down-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed down on Wednesday March 14. Most completed a three-day evening star candlestick formation. The volumes was mixed.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Energy
  2. Technology
  3. Utility
  4. Heath Care
  5. Telecom
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Materials
  4. Industrials
  5. Finance
  6. Real Estate

 

Morning Notes – Wednesday March 14, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways since 4:00 AM just below a resistance line, which was a broken support
  • Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2783.50 and below 2762.50 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data:
    • PPI (0.2% vs. 0.1% est.) at 8:30
    • Core PPI (0.2% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Retail Sales (-0.1% vs. 0.3% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Core Retail Sales (0.2% vs. est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were down
  • European markets are mostly higher – Italy is down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • AUD/USD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • Copper
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Platinum
    • Coffee
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.837% down from March 13 close of 2.848%;
    • 30-years is at 3.079%, down from 3.101%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.266%, up from 2.258%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.571, down from 0.590

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2751.54, 2740.45 and 2728.05
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2783.27, 2796.98 and 2808.92
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2783.50, the high at 6:00 AM and break below 2776.25, the low of 4:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2769.25 and the index closed at 2765.31 – a spread of about +4.00 points; futures closed at 2772.75 for the day; the fair value is -3.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +6.50; Dow by +66.00; and NASDAQ by +20.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Down-Side
  • 15-Min: Down-Side
  • 6-Min: Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on March 9 was a large bullish engulfing candle, over a bearish engulfing candles, with almost no upper and lower shadows
  • Last week’s pivot point=2749.63, R1=2823.51, R2=2860.45; S1=2712.69, S2=2638.81; R1 pivot levels was breached;
  • An up week following a down week; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A large red body candle that engulfed Monday’s red candle; just above the upper limit of  a symmetrical triangle that was broken to the upside; it may act as a support
  • Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
  • Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
  • Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Broke below a double top pattern; achieved the 100% extension target to the downside; bounced up to the broken lower limit of the double top pattern
  • Rising since making a low of 2681.25 at 6:00 PM on March 6; pulling back since 2:00 AM on March 12 from 2805.00, which is just above a resistance level; above an uptrend line; sequence of higher highs and higher lows
  • RSI-9 declining since 2:00 AM on March 12 formed a divergence at 8:00 AM on March 13;bouncing off from a low of 26t 10:00 PM to just above 50; below a downtrend line
  • At 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Moving sideways to down since 4:00 PM on March 9
  • Broke above an ascending triangle and achieved 100% extension target near 2789.00;
  • RSI bouncing off from 23.82 at 3:00 PM on March 13; at or near 65;
  • Above 50-bar EMA, which is above 20-bar EMA
  • Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving slightly up from down
  • The band is again narrowing
  •  RSI is trending down from 77.74 at 4:00 Am; now just above 50
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is trending down since 5:00 AM; near 20
  • Bias: Down-Side

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed down on Tuesday March 13. Dow Jones Transportation Average was up. Major indices also made reversal candlestick patterns. Dow Jones Industrial Average made a three day evening star pattern at the upper limit of a symmetrical triangle, which acted as a resistance. NYSE Composite also made a similar candlestick formation. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 200 and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made bearish engulfing patterns and DJT made a shooting star candle. The volume was higher than that on Monday.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Utility
  2. Heath Care
  3. Real Estate
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Industrials
  6. Finance
  7. Technology
  8. Telecom