GDP Plunges, Dollar Sinks and Treasuries Rally

The Q1 of 2014 was greatly affected by the weather and most economist were projecting a contraction to the tune of -1.7%. However, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, puts the decline to -2.9% at an annualized rate, which is sharply down from BEA’s previous estimate of -1.0%. The dollar index fell off the bed and…...

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Trade Alert – June Post Expiration Proceeds Just As Expected

In our Witches’ Brew in June, we noted that the Monday after quad-witching day in June has a bearish tone. Specifically, we found that since 1990, Dow declined 71% of times on Monday after June expiration, S&P 500 58% of times, NASDAQ 67% of times and Russell 2000 71% of times. The 2014 was not much different. On Monday after quad-witching…...

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Market Notes – Wednesday June 25th, 2014

Economic Report 2:00 AM – GfK German Consumer Climate of 8.9 beat the consensus of 8.5 3:00 AM – Spanish PPI y/y were better @ -0.4% vs. -0.6% 3:00 AM – Austrian Industrial Production (YoY) came at 0.4% vs. 0.8% forecast 3:00 AM - Dutch GDP (YoY) were 0.0% vs .-0.5% 4:00 AM - Italian Retail Sales…

Market Notes – Tuesday June 24th, 2014

Economic Report 4:00 AM – German Ifo Business Climate of 109.7 missed the forecast of 110.3. German DAX is struggling to get off the lows. 4:30 AM – UK BBA Mortgage Approvals beat at 41.8K but GBP/USD is lower 9:00 AM – US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 HPI y/y reading of 10.8% disappointed the forecast of 11.7%; HPI…

Market Notes – Monday June 23rd, 2014

Economic Data Sunday: Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI beat @ 50.8 vs. the forecast of 49.7. Shanghai Composite was almost unchanged losing 2 points. FXI, iShares China Large Cap ETF, is making an uneven inverse head-&-shoulder pattern. A break above 38.25 will bring the target near 41 in picture. Early Morning French Flash Manufacturing PMI of…...

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Fed – The New Gas Station

Exit of ‘Helicopter Ben’ from the Federal Reserve hasn’t affected the general trajectory of US monetary policy. One of the architects of Fed’s quantitative easing and subsequent tapering strategy is now at the helms. If any one had doubts about Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s intentions of continuing with the easy monetary policies then this week’s FOMC Statement and press conference dispelled them.…...

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Witches’ Brew In June

The quarterly expiration of index futures, index options, stock futures and stock options cause big swings in the stock market. When options and futures contracts expire then traders can either “roll” the contracts to next one, buy or sell the underlying security or let contracts expire worthless. If traders decide to buy/sell underlying stocks then it…

Market Notes – Friday June 20th, 2014

Economic Data 2:00 AM – German May PPI m/m disappointed at -0.2% vs. 0.2% forecast, mostly due to a decline in energy prices. Inflationary pressures are tame with concerns for deflation 4:00 AM – Euro Zone Current Account was @ 21.5B better than the forecast of 19.4B 4:30 AM – UK Public Sector Net Borrowing was in…

Gold Roars

It seems that the press conference by Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Wednesday June 18th was not that benign after all. The equity market went to bed feeling good with S&P 500 closing at all time high. The currency market went into the night whiplashed. The gold traders went to bed mostly unconcerned but woke up…