Yesterday we had trade alert for the first day of the July, which shows bullish propensity. This year was no exception and the trades that we initiated on close of June 30th were closed with profit on July 1st. DDM, ProShares Ultra Dow 30 gained +1.6% SSO, ProShares Ultra S&P 500, returned +1.3% QLD, ProShares…...
The end of second quarter and start of third quarter give a couple of good trading opportunities for our ‘Seasonal Trader portfolio. The first day of July has a bullish tendency and so far, mid-day on July 1st, it is progressing as expected. The second trading day of July, on the other hand, has bearish tendency.…...
The last day of 2nd quarter for the US markets has been bearish. Stock Traders Almanac gives Dow a 68% chance of being down. Since 2000, Dow has been down 57% of times. However, the average return is not much. We also think that the last day of the 2nd quarter is not a trade-able event. In…...
This year’s post-Quad witching in June trades in our Seasonality Trader portfolio scored another home run. The market has been defying expectations and keep on going up. Still, they dipped briefly for our post-expiration trades to close at profit. Till yesterday morning, eight of nine ETF trades that we execute for this strategy had exited. The last…...
8:30 AM: Unemployment claims in line @ 312K Core PCE Price Index m/m also in line @ 0.2% Personal Spending m/m disappointed @ 0.2% vs. 0.4% expected Personal Income m/m also disappointed @ 0.4% vs. 0.5% expected eMini hardly budged – 15Min chart Market Notes 7:00 AM: EMini futures are in the middle of a horizontal channel. On…
The Q1 of 2014 was greatly affected by the weather and most economist were projecting a contraction to the tune of -1.7%. However, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, puts the decline to -2.9% at an annualized rate, which is sharply down from BEA’s previous estimate of -1.0%. The dollar index fell off the bed and…...
In our Witches’ Brew in June, we noted that the Monday after quad-witching day in June has a bearish tone. Specifically, we found that since 1990, Dow declined 71% of times on Monday after June expiration, S&P 500 58% of times, NASDAQ 67% of times and Russell 2000 71% of times. The 2014 was not much different. On Monday after quad-witching…...
Economic Report 2:00 AM – GfK German Consumer Climate of 8.9 beat the consensus of 8.5 3:00 AM – Spanish PPI y/y were better @ -0.4% vs. -0.6% 3:00 AM – Austrian Industrial Production (YoY) came at 0.4% vs. 0.8% forecast 3:00 AM - Dutch GDP (YoY) were 0.0% vs .-0.5% 4:00 AM - Italian Retail Sales…
Economic Report 4:00 AM – German Ifo Business Climate of 109.7 missed the forecast of 110.3. German DAX is struggling to get off the lows. 4:30 AM – UK BBA Mortgage Approvals beat at 41.8K but GBP/USD is lower 9:00 AM – US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 HPI y/y reading of 10.8% disappointed the forecast of 11.7%; HPI…
Markets continue to go higher and we got entry signals for four more ETFs in our seasonality trader portfolio. One can argue that in this upward moving markets trading on the sort side is not a good idea. However, trading is all about probabilities. If for any setup or strategy the probabilities to make profit…...
Economic Data Sunday: Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI beat @ 50.8 vs. the forecast of 49.7. Shanghai Composite was almost unchanged losing 2 points. FXI, iShares China Large Cap ETF, is making an uneven inverse head-&-shoulder pattern. A break above 38.25 will bring the target near 41 in picture. Early Morning French Flash Manufacturing PMI of…...
Exit of ‘Helicopter Ben’ from the Federal Reserve hasn’t affected the general trajectory of US monetary policy. One of the architects of Fed’s quantitative easing and subsequent tapering strategy is now at the helms. If any one had doubts about Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s intentions of continuing with the easy monetary policies then this week’s FOMC Statement and press conference dispelled them.…...
The quarterly expiration of index futures, index options, stock futures and stock options cause big swings in the stock market. When options and futures contracts expire then traders can either “roll” the contracts to next one, buy or sell the underlying security or let contracts expire worthless. If traders decide to buy/sell underlying stocks then it…
Economic Data 2:00 AM – German May PPI m/m disappointed at -0.2% vs. 0.2% forecast, mostly due to a decline in energy prices. Inflationary pressures are tame with concerns for deflation 4:00 AM – Euro Zone Current Account was @ 21.5B better than the forecast of 19.4B 4:30 AM – UK Public Sector Net Borrowing was in…
It seems that the press conference by Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Wednesday June 18th was not that benign after all. The equity market went to bed feeling good with S&P 500 closing at all time high. The currency market went into the night whiplashed. The gold traders went to bed mostly unconcerned but woke up…