Dollar Index The U.S. Dollar Index, DX #F, has been declining since January 2017 when it reached the highest level since 2003 (Chart 1). During 1990s, the index has risen from a low of 78.43, in 1992, to a high of121.90 in 2001. The up trend reversal occurred after a near triple bottom pattern – two other…
A research paper by Ben Jacobsen and Cherry Y. Zhang of Massey University of New Zealand demonstrates that monthly seasonality effect is sample specific. They found that the strategy of ‘Sell in May and Go Away‘ beats the market more that 80% of times over -year horizons. Another aspect of this strategy is that during this time, bonds usually outperform…
U.S. GDP is growing at a modest pace and the economic expansion is expected to continue, albeit, slowly. The recession signals are benign and the economy is not over heating. This combination supports an environment for cautious and gradual Fed Funds rate hikes.
Consumer Staples was the best sector over the past 30 days followed by Technology. Defensive sectors are underperforming since November. Industrials, Technology and Financials are showing relative strengths.
Gold’s demand is highest in three years but supply is highest in seven. It bottomed in November 2016 and is on a short upswing since then. Gold ETF, GLD, is doing slightly better than SPDR S&P 500, SPY, recently. The gold miners ETF, GDX, is doing better than GLD and the gold junior miners ETF, GDXJ, is doing better than GDX.
Germany German XETRA DAX broke above a symmetrical triangle on weekly timeframe in early August 2016, by rising above 10500.00 (Chart 1). From August to November 2016 it stayed within a horizontal trading range with an upper limit of 10830.00 and a lower limit of 10170.00. In early December it broke above that trading range. The 100%…
The U.S. economy has been growing for the past few years, albeit, at a slow rate. Many have attributed the sluggish growth to secular stagnation due to weak household demand, impact of structural changes on employment, weak private investment, political gridlock and global slowdown. Some of these factors will last for many years and some may see up-and-down movement.…
Monthly Chart Analysis Current Status: Last Updated on Wednesday January 04, 2017 Current Trend: Confirmed Uptrend Last Pattern: Double Bottom (broken out in Jul-13) Previous Pattern: Rectangle (broken in Apr-13) Current Streak: 2 Up months Last Six Months 3 Up months Last High 2277.53 (Dec-16) High Month Low Month Last Swing 2193.81 Aug-16 2083.79 Nov-16 Previous Swing 2116.48…
“Santa Claus Rally lasts the final five trading days of the year and first two of next year. During this period, S&P 500 has been up 73% times since 1970 with an average gain of +0.8%.” “In November market’s price action turbo-charged it and gave clarity to many of the patterns that have been evolving for many months. The…
Since the beginning of May 2016, the U.S. Dollar Index has been on an uptrend and making bullish chart pa. It got a fresh boost in November with renewed conviction in an imminent Fed Fund rate increase. Also, fueling the rise is a greater possibility of fiscal stimulus, which would expand the U.S. economy. However, former…
Recently, the Wall Street Journal published an article, “The Biggest Money Mistakes We Make – Decade by Decade“, on the money mistakes that people make during their life at various age-levels. Their relationship with money and understanding of it evolves during their lifetime and they make different types of mistakes. Young people in their 20s, either because of…
Historically, in October, many market crashes occurred and many bear market died. Whether we will get an October Surprise or not this year remains to be seen but there are many emerging patterns and potential events on the horizon that need to be analyzed to form an informed opinion about market’s current environment.
Deutsche Bank is facing major problems and it is so big in Europe, and globally, that its liquidity and solvency concerns will affect many global entities, including small investors. So it behooves us to investigate and determine whether we should be concerned and, if so then, when?
In early September, sovereign bond yields swooned higher from all time lows. But the bounce from low levels soon met with the resistance level and they are again lower. Checkout what chart and seasonal patterns are making it difficult for bonds to decline and yields to rise.
September is usually a down month for the U.S. indices. The later part of the month is more so, especially, the week after the September options expiry on the third Friday, which is a triple-witch-day (or quadruple including single stock futures). The odds for first half of the week following expiry Friday to be down are…
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