Turmoil In the Equity Markets The second week of the Q4 of 2018 saw the biggest decline for S&P 500 since the week of March 23, 2018 (see Fig. 1). What is more concerning is that 14-week RSI made a bearish divergence during the week of September 17, when the index made a new all time high. In…
What To Expect at Next Week’s Fed Meeting This coming week the Federal Reserve is going to conduct the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, its sixth of the year, over a two-day period, followed by a press conference at 2:00 PM on Wednesday September 26th. This will be the third meeting of the year with a press-conference.…
August Housing Starts Better Than Estimated The Housing Starts for August, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, came at 1, 282,000 units, which is +9.2% above July’s revised rate of 1,174,00 units and better than what the market was expecting, which was 1.24 Million units. The single family units starts increased by +1.9% in August…
The US Economy Is Doing Great The US economy is strong and the major indicators gauging its health are trending higher. Fig. 1 shows that the five major economic indicators – Total Nonfarm Payrolls, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Disposal Personal Income and the Per Capita GDP – indexed to just before the start of 2001 recession are…
Monthly Chart Indicates Pause in Uptrend For the month of August 2018, the dollar index made a shooting star pattern (see Fig 1). The shooting star is a bearish reversal pattern that occurs after a rally. The index has been rising since making a low of 88.15 on February 16, 2018. So even though the…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are lower; moving lower since 3:00 AM after making a high of 2821.00 a bearish divergence on 30-minute and 120-minute timeframes Odds are for a sideways and choppy day with good chances to go or down; elevated volatility Key economic data due: Building Permits (1.24M vs. 1.27M est.) at 8:30 AM…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are higher; moving higher since 6:00 PM on Monday A symmetrical triangle is forming on 30-minute chart; a break above 2775.00 wil be bullish and a break below 2755.00 will be bearish Odds are for an up day with increased volatility Key economic data due: Industrial Production (est. 0.2%) at 9:15 AM Capacity…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are lower; moving higher since 4:45 AM from a low of 2745.25; almost near Friday’s close Odds are for a sideways to an up day with increased volatility Key economic data due: Core Retail Sales ( -0.1% vs. 0.4% est.) at 8:30 AM Retail Sales (0.1% vs. 0.7% est.) at 8:30 AM Empire State Manufacturing…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are higher; closed 14 point above the NYSE session close; moving higher since 5:00 AM after retracing from a high of 2785.00 reached at 2:30 AM Odds are for an up day with increased volatility Key economic data due: Import Prices ( 0.5% vs. 0.3% est.) at 8:30 AM Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (est.…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are sharply lower; moving higher since 5:00 AM after making a low of 2747.25 below earlier low of 2748.50; nearly 30 points above the day’s low so far Odds are for a down day with a good chance of a dead-cat-bounce; increased volatility Key economic data due: CPI ( 0.1% vs.…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are lower; moving further lower since 7:30 AM; broke below a descending triangle on 15-minute chart with 100% extension target near 2862.00 level Odds are for a down day with volatility – watch for break above 2889.50 for change of fortune Key economic data due: PPI ( 0.2% vs. 0.2% est.)…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are lower; declined from 4:00 PM high of 2894.00 to 7:30 AM low of 2874.50; rising since to 2885.00 At/Below a down trendline Break above 2894.00 is critical Odds are for a volatile with real chance of turning around; if the bounce fails then there is an increased chance of…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are volatile due to Non-Farm Payroll; mostly sideways since 4:00 PM on Thursday Odds are for a down day; Volatile day; watch for break above 2910.25 and below 2897.25 for more clarity Key economic data due: Non-Farm Employment Change (134K vs. 185K est.) at 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate (3.7% vs. 3.8% est.) at 8:30 AM…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are lower; but moving higher since 5:00 AM after making a double bottom at 2913.25 and bullish divergence on 15-minute chart Odds are for a down day; watch for break above 2924.00 and 2925.50 for change of fortune Key economic data due: Unemployment Claims (207K vs. 214K) at 8:30 AM Markets Around The World…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are higher; moving higher since 5:00 AM on October 2; breaking above a resistance near 2936.00 Odds are for an up day; watch for break below 2932.25 Key economic data due: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (230K vs. 185K est.) at 8:15 AM ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (61.6 vs. est. 58.0) at 10:00 AM Markets Around…