The US Economy Is Doing Great The US economy is strong and the major indicators gauging its health are trending higher. Fig. 1 shows that the five major economic indicators – Total Nonfarm Payrolls, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Disposal Personal Income and the Per Capita GDP – indexed to just before the start of 2001 recession are…
Monthly Chart Indicates Pause in Uptrend For the month of August 2018, the dollar index made a shooting star pattern (see Fig 1). The shooting star is a bearish reversal pattern that occurs after a rally. The index has been rising since making a low of 88.15 on February 16, 2018. So even though the…
The U.S. Economy Current Expansion – 104 Months Long The current economic expansion started in June 2009, according to NBER, which makes January 2018 the 104th month of expansion from the last trough. This is the third longest streak after the 120 months long expansion from March 1991 to March 2001 and 106 months long expansion from February 1961 to…
The last U.S. government shutdown happened in October 2013. Then the federal government shutdown lasted for sixteen days from October 1st to October 17th. Here is the time line for it. The U.S. House of Representative was controlled by Republicans, the Senate by Democrats and Obama was president. The point of contention was Affordable Care Act (ACA) or the…
The U.S. market is continuing with the bull rally that started in March 2009. During this time, significant market declines occurred only three time. In 2010, the S&P 500 declined by 17.13%, mostly due to concerns arising from the European Sovereign debt crisis. In 2011, the S&P 500 declined in the wake of U.S. debt ceiling…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are little changed; at a resistance level Odds are for a down day to sideways move; watch for break above 2904.00 for change of fortune No key economic data due: Markets Around The World Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Seoul closed up; Sydney, Singapore and Mumbai closed…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are lower; a symmetrical triangle is emerging on 15-minute chart; Odds are for a sideways; watch for break above 2910.25 and below 2904.50 for clarity Key economic data due: Empire State Manufacturing Index (19.0 vs. 23.2 est.) at 8:30 AM Markets Around The World Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Sydney…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are higher; declining from all time high of 2917.25 at 3:30 AM Breaking below above an descending triangle/double top on 6-minute chart Odds are for a sideways to an up day; watch for break above 2917.25 and below 2909.50 for clarity Key economic data due: Retail Sales (0.3% vs. 0.5% ets.) at 8:30 AM…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are higher; breaking above an ascending triangle on 30-minute chart Odds are for an up day; watch for break below 2889.00 for change of fortune Key economic data due: Bank of England Policy Summary and Bank Rate at 7:00AM CPI (est. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM Core CPI (est. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are lower; moving lower from a high of 2895.25 at 4:30 AM Within a trading range between 2886.00 and 2895 since 11:30 AM on Tuesday Odds are for a sideways to an up day; watch for break above 2892.5 and break below 2883.00 for clarity Key economic data due: PPI (-0.1% vs. 0.2% est.)…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are lower; moving lower since 3:00 AM; moving sideways since 5:30 AM Odds are for a down day; watch for break above 2876.00 for change of fortune No key economic data due: Markets Around The World Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Tokyo and Sydney were up European markets are lower Currencies: Up…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are lower; moving down since 2:30 AM Sharp down move following the release of Non-Farm Payroll report at 8:30 AM Odds are for a down day; watch for break above 2875.00 for change of fortune Key economic data due: Non-Farm Employment Change (201K vs. 191K) at 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate (3.9% vs. 3.8%…
