Intermarket US Dollar ($USD) has been mostly rising since early February 2018 (Chart 1) after making a low of 88.15. On relative basis, the Dollar Index is out-performing Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index (Chart 2). U.S. Treasury Bonds ($USB) have been mostly declining since June 2017 from a high of 176.06 but since October 2018, they have been staging a rally, after…
S&P 500 Current Trend: Confirmed Uptrend Monthly Up-sloping channel; at the median of a regression channel RSI made a Bearish Divergence in Sep-19 and is below a downtrend line since Weekly Potential emergence of Arthur Merrill’s W7 or W11 or W12 wave patterns RSI-9 made a Bearish Divergence on 17-Sep-18; trying to break above a downtrend line; coming off…
Turmoil In the Equity Markets The second week of the Q4 of 2018 saw the biggest decline for S&P 500 since the week of March 23, 2018 (see Fig. 1). What is more concerning is that 14-week RSI made a bearish divergence during the week of September 17, when the index made a new all time high. In…
What To Expect at Next Week’s Fed Meeting This coming week the Federal Reserve is going to conduct the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, its sixth of the year, over a two-day period, followed by a press conference at 2:00 PM on Wednesday September 26th. This will be the third meeting of the year with a press-conference.…
August Housing Starts Better Than Estimated The Housing Starts for August, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, came at 1, 282,000 units, which is +9.2% above July’s revised rate of 1,174,00 units and better than what the market was expecting, which was 1.24 Million units. The single family units starts increased by +1.9% in August…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are lower; moving down since 4:00 AM; Odds are for a down to sideways day with elevated volatility – watch for break above 2852.00 for change of fortune Key economic data due: Existing Home Sales (est. 5.10M; prev. 4.94M) at 9:45 AM Risk-off sentiment due to weak economic…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are lower; moving down since 6:30 AM; at a resistance-turned-support level Odds are for a sideways to down day with potential for a bounce – watch for break above 2827.25 for change of fortune Key economic data due: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (13.7 vs. 4.6 est.; prev. -4.1)…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are unchanged; moving down since 4:30 AM Odds are for a down to sideways day – watch for break above 2842.50 for change of fortune Key economic data due: FOMC Statement at 2:00 PM FOME Economic Projections at 2:00 PM Fed Funds Rate at 2:00 PM FOMC Press…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways since 6:45 AM Odds are for a sideways to an up day – watch for break below 2847.50 for change of fortune Key economic data due: Start of two-day FOMC meeting Markets Around The World Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Tokyo,…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are little changed; moving mostly sideways since 12:00 PM on Friday Odds are for a sideways to an up day – watch for break below 2828.50 for change of fortune No key economic data due: Markets Around The World Markets in the East closed up European markets are…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are lower; moving within a down-sloping channel since 11:00 AM on Wednesday Odds are for a sideways to an up day with chance for a breakout – watch for break below 2811.50 for change of fortune Key economic data due: Unemployment Claims (229K vs. 225K est.; prev., 223K)…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are higher; moving up since 10:30 PM on Tuesday Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2797.75 for change of fortune Key economic data due: Core PPI (0.1% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM PPI (0.1% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. -0.1% )…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are higher; moving mostly sideways to down since reaching a high of 2799.00 at 6:30 PM on Monday Odds are for a sideways to down day with elevated volatility – watch for break above 27497.00 and below 2785.50 for clarity Key economic data due: Core CPI (0.1% vs.…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are higher; moving mostly sideways to up since 9:15 PM on Sunday Odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for break below 2748.25 for change of fortune Key economic data due: Core Retail Sales (0.9% vs. 0.4% est.; prev. -2.1%) at 8:30 AM Retail…
Directional Bias For The Day: S&P Futures are down; moving mostly sideways since 2:00 AM Odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for break above 2750.50 for change of fortune Key economic data due: Non-Farm Employment Change (est. 180K;prev. 304K ) at 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate (est. 3.9%; prev. 4.0%) at 8:30…