Market trends behave like Newton’s First Law— they maintain their direction and momentum until external economic forces intervene. Often, before reversing course, indices or stocks make a few final pushes in the same direction, forming reversal patterns. It has become increasingly evident that the major U.S. equity indices have finalized their topping patterns of the…
1) Are Inflation Expectations Anchoring? The tariffs are impacting the psyche, and people are reacting. Their inflation expectations are firming up, or as they say, the inflation expectations are anchoring. The 5-year Forward Inflation Expectations have been between 2.40% and 2.24% since November 2023. After declining from the high in April 2022, the University of…
Sell in May and Go Away is a popular stock market adage referring to its historical underperformance between May and October. However, during this period, too, the market is known to stage a rally that the Stock Trader’s Almanac calls the “summer rally,” albeit a short one and the weakest of all four seasons, within…
Ending the 2023 With A Bang By the end of 2022, the year-over-year change in the Personal Consumption Expenditure index was 5.9 percent and the Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge which excluded food and energy, inflated by 4.4 percent. The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, and the real GDP growth was 2.6 percent.…
Ahead of the FOMC’s September 20, 2023 meeting, rate decisions, and subsequent press conference, various market indices are at critical junctures. The market is betting heavily on the Fed holding the rate at 5.50%, so the indecision shown by the indices is due to uncertainty about the larger picture. It is possible that the FOMC’s…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower. Moving near the lower bound of a descending triangle. Watch for the break below the lower bound at 5619.25. Odds are for a sideways to a down day. Watch for a break above 5663.50, which may change the sentiment. The notable economic data due during the…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower. Moving sideways within a 30-point range around 5570.00 since 5:00 AM. Odds are for a down day with elevated volatility. Watch for a break above 5600.00 for a change of sentiment. The notable economic data due during the day: Chicago PMI (45.5 est.; prev. 45.5) at…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower. Moving within a descending triangle. Odds are for a down day with elevated volatility. Watch for a break above 5761.00 for a change of sentiment. The notable economic data due during the day: Unemployment Claims (224K vs. 225K est.; prev. 225K) at 8:30 AM. Final GDP…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are a little higher. Moving within a range since 9:45 AM on Tuesday between 5689.50 and 5650.75 ahead of the FOMC statement and press conference at 2:30 PM. Odds are for a sideways day until 2:00 PM. The volatility will increase after that. Watch for a break above…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower. Breaking below a range between 5724.00 and 5705.00. Odds are for a down day with elevated volatility and a good chance of moving sideways from the pre-open level around 5710.00. The notable economic data due during the day: Building Permits (1.46M vs. 1.45M est.; prev. 1.47M)…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are little changed after rising following the PPI report at 8:30 AM. They were down more than 25 points before the report. Odds are for a sideways to down day with elevated volatility. The critical resistance level is 5609.75, and the critical support level is 5559.25. The notable…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher. They have been moving higher since 3:00 AM after a sideways move. They are up more than 100 points since the start of the European session. The futures shot up following the CPI report at 8:30 AM. Odds are for an up day with elevated volatility.…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher. They are moving higher after breaking below the NYSE session low in the Asian session. Up more than 90 points from the lows of 5558.00 at 9:00 PM. Odds are for an up day with elevated volatility. The critical support levels are 5627.50, 5615.50, and 5584.50.…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower. Down more than 60 points since the start of the European session. Odds are for a down day with increased volatility. The critical resistance levels are 5723.25, 5731.50, and 5757.75. No notable economic data is due during the day. Weekly: Correction Daily: Correction 120-Min: Down 30-Min:…
Directional Bias for the Day: 9:10 AM Update. The futures have been declining after jumping more than 50 points in the first minute following the non-farm payroll report. They are down more than 60 points since the initial jump. The outlook for the day has turned decidedly negative. S&P Futures jumped up after the Non-Farm…
You must be logged in to post a comment.