Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are little changed after rising following the PPI report at 8:30 AM. They were down more than 25 points before the report.
• Odds are for a sideways to down day with elevated volatility. The critical resistance level is 5609.75, and the critical support level is 5559.25.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • PPI m/m (0.0% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Core PPI m/m (-0.1% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Unemployment Claims (220K vs. 22gK est.; prev. 222K) at 8:30 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5586.68, 5546/09, and 5528.88.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5610.94, 5626.91, and 5642.19.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5609.75, the high at 6:15 AM, and 5559.25, the low at 4:15 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 5602.75, and the index closed at 5599.30 – a spread of about +2.50 points; the futures closed at 5604.75; the fair value is -2.00.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -26.75, Dow by -150 and NASDAQ by -123.25.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mainly lower – Singapore closed up.
• European markets are mainly lower – Spain is higher.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are higher.
  • Soft commodities are mixed.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.315, up +5.2 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.633%, up +11.9 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.991%, down -9.1 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.324, up from 0.181.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.318, up from 0.251.
• VIX
  • At 24.70 @ 8:00 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 29.56 on March 10; low = 17.67 on February 27; Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Wednesday, March 12 in lower volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average, and NYSE Composite closed lower. The market opened flat to up. It first drifted lower and then drifted higher.

The dollar index closed up; the energy futures closed mixed; the metals–precious and industrials–closed up; and the soft commodities closed mixed. The US Treasuries yields were up, and the bonds were down. The S&P sectors closed mixed–five up and six down.

From Briefing.com

The S&P 500 (+0.5%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.2%) closed higher, propelled by buy-the-dip interest in the mega cap space.

The Treasury market also had a muted response to the data. The 10-yr yield rose three basis points to 4.32% and the 2-yr yield rose five basis points to 3.99%. On a related note, today’s $39 billion 10-yr note reopening received solid demand.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.5% YTD
• S&P 500: -4.5% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: -6.4% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -9.5%
• Russell 2000: -9.5% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index 11.2%; Prior 20.4%
• February CPI 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.5%, February Core CPI 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.4%
• The Treasury Budget for February showed a deficit of $307.0 billion compared to a deficit of $296.3 billion in the same period a year ago. The February deficit resulted from outlays ($603.4 billion) exceeding receipts ($296.4 billion). The Treasury Budget data are not seasonally adjusted so the February deficit cannot be compared to the January deficit of $128.6 billion.