Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are lower; moving higher since 7:30 PM within an up-sloping flag- Odds are for a sideways to down day, but up from pre-open levels, with great volatility – watch for break above 2710.25 and break below 2694.00 for change of fortunes
- Key economic data:
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (235K vs. 199K est.) at 8:15 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were down
- European markets are mostly mixed – Germany, U.K., Italy and STOXX 600 are up; France, Spain and Switzerland are down
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
|
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
|
|
- Crude Oil
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Coffee
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.861% down from March 6 close of 2.877%;
- 30-years is at 3.131%, down from 3.136%
- 2-years yield is at 2.258%, unchanged
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.603, down from 0.619
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2721.05, 2711.26, and 2708.20
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2730.89, 2738.02 and 2754.43
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2710.25, the low of 11:30 AM on March 6 and break below 2694.00, the low of 6:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2727.50 and the index closed at 2728.12 – a spread of about +0.75 points; futures closed at 2724.00 for the day; the fair value is +3.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -19.50; Dow by -254.00; and NASDAQ by -41.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Side
- 30-Min: Up-Side
- 15-Min: Side-Up
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on March 2 was a large bearish engulfing candles with large upper and lower shadows
- Last week’s pivot point=2709.24, R1=2771.16, R2=2812.07; S1=2629.33, S2=2567.41; S1/S2/S3/R1/R2 pivot levels were breached;
- A down week; first after two up weeks, third in last five weeks and fourth in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A red doji candle with small upper and lower lower shadow
- Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
- Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
- Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Rising after gapping down following the new after the NYSE session close; forming an up-sloping flag
- RSI-9 rising since making a low of 30.24 at 6:00 PM on March 6; above 50
- At 20-bar EMA, which is at/below EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Side
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Forming an up-sloping flag
- RSI is rising in zigzag since making a low of 26.59 at 7:00 PM on March 6; above 50
- Above 50-bar EMA, which is above 20-bar EMA
- Bias: Up-Side
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is, mostly, moving sideway, with an up bias since 11:00 PM on March 6
- The band is relatively expanded since 11:00 PM
- RSI is mostly between 40 and 65 since 1:45 AM
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is declining after reaching 98 at 7:15 AM; formed a bearish divergence
- Bias: Side-Up
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices advanced on Tuesday March 6, although not much changed at the close from the open. The volume was, again, lower than previous day for the third times in as many days.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
- Utility
- Heath Care
|
Major U.S. indices advanced on Tuesday March 6, although not much changed at the close from the open. The volume was, again, lower than previous day for the third times in as many days.
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