Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher; fresh move up since 3:30 AM- Breaking above a resistance at the upper bound of a horizontal channel that is being formed since March 22
- Odds are for an up move with high volatility – watch for break below 2669.00 for change of fortunes
- Key economic data due
- Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (est. 100.6) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mostly up – Shanghai and Hong Kong were down
- European markets are up
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
|
- EUR/USD
- USD/CHF
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
- USD/INR
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- NatGas
- Silver
- Copper
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Cocoa
|
- Crude Oil
- Gold
- Platinum
- Coffee
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield closed at 2.8343% on April 12, up from April 11 close of 2.790%;
- 30-years is at 3.040%, up from 3.006%
- 2-years yield is at 2.353%, up from 2.312%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.481, up from 0.478
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2656.07, 2639.25 and 2635.78
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2674.78, 2695.68 and 2709.79
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2679.75, the high at 4:00 AM on March 27 and break below 2669.00, the low of 7:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2663.75 and the index closed at 2663.99 – a spread of about -0.25 points; futures closed at 2664.00 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +12.00; Dow by +108.00; and NASDAQ by +24.75
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Side-Up
- 30-Min: Side-Up
- 15-Min: Up
- 6-Min: Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on April 6 was a small red spinning top with long upper and lower shadow;
- Last week’s pivot point=2610.12, R1=2666.43, R2=228.40; S1=2548.15, S2=2491.84; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
- A down week following an up week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
- A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A green candle with almost no lower shadow and upper shadow equal to the real body;
- In the middle of a symmetrical triangle;
- Breaking above 20-day EMA and approaching 50-day EMA
- Above 20-day EMA; below 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- At the upper limit of a horizontal channel that has been breached to the upside and downside at least once; channel started to form on March 22
- Trending up since 2:00 PM on April 6
- RSI-9 moving up since 6:00 AM on April 10; above 65
- Above 20-bar EMA and above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Side-Up
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Breaking above an ascending triangle; 100% extension target is near 2720.00
- Trending up since 3:00 PM on April 6 with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows
- RSI moving between 40 and 65 since 8:30 AM on April 11; near 65
- Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Side-Up
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up since 12:00 AM
- The band narrowed during early Asian session and is expanding since 1:00 AM
- RSI is moving around 65 since 2:00 AM
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above 70
- Bias: Up
|
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday April 11 in mixed volume than on Tuesday. Major indices gapped up at the open and then closed in the top half of day’s range. Most are also approaching 50-day EMA from below.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Heath Care
- Telecom
|
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Utility
- Real Estate
|
Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday April 11 in mixed volume than on Tuesday. Major indices gapped up at the open and then closed in the top half of day’s range. Most are also approaching 50-day EMA from below.
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