Morning Notes – Friday April 20, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are little changed; moving  higher since 3:30 AM;
  • Forming a W14 pattern as named by Arthur Merrill
  • Odds are for an up move – watch for break below 2690.25 for change of fortunes
  • No key economic data due

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed lower
  • European markets are mixed – U.K., France, Spain and Italy are up; Germany, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • NatGas
    • Copper
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Cocoa
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.929%, up from April 19 close of 2.914%;
    • 30-years is at 3.120%, up from 3.105%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.437%, up from 2.436%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.492, up from 0.478

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2681.90, 2676.38 and 2665.16
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2698.79, 2702.84 and 2708.51
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2698.25, the high at 7:00 AM and break below 2690.25, the low of 8:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2693.25 and the index closed at 2693.13 – a spread of about -0.25 points; futures closed at 2693.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is little changed – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +1.00; Dow down by -10.00; and NASDAQ down by -11.75

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Up-Side
  • 15-Min: Dn-Side
  • 6-Min: Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on April 13 was a green candle top with small upper and lower shadow; the three-week pattern is morning star like
  • Last week’s pivot point=2610.12, R1=2666.43, R2=2728.40; S1=2548.15, S2=2491.84; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
  • An up week following a down week; second in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
  • A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A red candle with almost no upper shadow and lower shadow equal to the real body; %K of Stochastic (13, 2, 3) is crossing below %D from over 95; touched 20-day EMA
  • Near the upper limit of a symmetrical triangle;
  • Above 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Break above the horizontal channel continues; 61.8% extension target is near 2726.00 and 100% extension target is near 2760.00; retracing from a resistance near 2719.00 level
  • Trending up since 2:00 PM on April 6
  • RSI-9 declined from a high of 86.11 at 6:00 AM on April 18 to a low of 18.44  by 12:00 PM on April 19; rising since then
  • At/below 20-bar EMA and at EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Declining from a high of 2718.50 at 7:30 AM on April 18 in a rounding top pattern; forming a ‘W’ pattern, which Arthur Merrill named as W14, a bullish pattern
  • Trending up since 3:00 PM on April 6 with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows
  • RSI started to rise from a low of 17.46 at 1:00 PM on April 19, then dipped  from just above 50 to 31.66 and then again started to rise; above 50 and at highest level since 1:00 PM on April 19
  • At/above 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 4:45 PM on April 19 after trending down from 12:30 AM on April 18
  • Broke below a descending triangle; achieved 100% extension target and came very near 161.8% extension target
  • The band narrowed during Asian session and is expanding since 2:45 AM
  • RSI is moving up from a low of 23.16 at 3:30 AM, touched 65 and is above 50
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crossed over %D just above 25
  • Bias: Dn-Side

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday April 19 in lower volume. Most major indices are making a three-candle evening star pattern. Also, the %K of Stochastic (13, 2, 3) is crossing below %D.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Energy
  2. Finance
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Materials
  4. Industrials
  5. Technology
  6. Utility
  7. Heath Care
  8. Real Estate
  9. Telecom

 

Morning Notes – Thursday April 19, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower; moving  mostly  lower since 7:45 AM on April 18;
  • Broken below a descending triangle on 6-minute chart; 61.8% extension target near 2698.75 is achieved; 100% extension target is near 2695.50
  • Odds are for a down move – watch for break above 2708.00 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data due
    • Unemployment Claims (232K vs. 230K est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (23.2 vs. 20.8 est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed higher
  • European markets are mostly up – Germany and Switzerland are down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • EUR/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/INR
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • Silver
    • Platinum
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Copper
    • Palladium
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.902%, up from April 18 close of 2.867%;
    • 30-years is at 3.0890%, up from 3.046%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.444%, up from 2.431%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.458, up from 0.436

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2703.63, 2692.05 and 2676.38
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2717.50, 2739.14 and  2750.64
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2708.00, the high at 7:30 AM and break below 2692.50, the low of 9:30 AM on April 17

Pre-Open

  • On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2708.25 and the index closed at 2708.64 – a spread of about -0.25 points; futures closed at 2709.75 for the day; the fair value is -1.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the down side – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -7.50; Dow by -62.00; and NASDAQ by -26.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Up-Side
  • 15-Min: Up-Side
  • 6-Min: Down

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on April 13 was a green candle top with small upper and lower shadow; the three-week pattern is morning star like
  • Last week’s pivot point=2610.12, R1=2666.43, R2=2728.40; S1=2548.15, S2=2491.84; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
  • An up week following a down week; second in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
  • A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A red doji candle with small lower and upper shadows;
  • Nearing the upper limit of a symmetrical triangle;
  • Above 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Break above the horizontal channel continues; 61.8% extension target is near 2726.00 and 100% extension target is near 2760.00; retracing from a resistance near 2719.00 level
  • Trending up since 2:00 PM on April 6
  • RSI-9 moving up, second leg, since 2:00 PM on April 13; above 80
  • At 20-bar EMA and above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Break above an ascending triangle continues; 100% extension target near 2720.00 is achieved; 161.8% extension target is near 2756.00; forming a round top
  • Trending up since 3:00 PM on April 6 with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows
  • RSI is mostly declining from a high of 70.48 at 7:30 AM on April 18; moving around 40 since 2:30 AM
  • Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down or curving down since 12:30 AM on April 18
  • Breaking below a descending triangle; the 61.8% extension target is near 2694.50 and 100% extension target is near 2689.00
  • The band narrowed during Asian session and expanding since 2:00 AM
  • RSI is mostly moving around 40 since 3:15 AM
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is mostly below 50 since midnight
  • Bias: Up-Side

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday April 18 in mostly lower volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average declined in higher volume. Most major indices made doji like candle.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Energy
  3. Materials
  4. Industrials
  5. Heath Care
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Finance
  3. Technology
  4. Utility
  5. Real Estate
  6. Telecom

 

Morning Notes – Wednesday April 18, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; moving higher since 3:00 AM on April 16;
  • Odds are for an up move – watch for break below 2708.00 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data due
    • Beige Book at 2:00 PM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were mostly higher – Mumbai was down
  • European markets are mostly up – Germany and STOXX 600 are down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • Dollar index
    • GBP/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/INR
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cocoa
    • Cotton
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.814%, down from April 16 close of 2.832%;
    • 30-years is at 2.999%, down from 3.030%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.407%, up from 2.378%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.420, down from 0.454

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2701.57, 2692.05 and 2676.38
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2739.14, 2750.64 and 2763.03
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2718.50, the high at 7:30 AM and break below 2708.50, the low of 3:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2706.50 and the index closed at 2706.39 – a spread of about -0.25 points; futures closed at 2706.50 for the day; the fair value is +0.00
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +9.25; Dow by +74.00; and NASDAQ by +18.50

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Up
  • 15-Min: Up
  • 6-Min: Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on April 13 was a green candle top with small upper and lower shadow; the three-week pattern is morning star like
  • Last week’s pivot point=2610.12, R1=2666.43, R2=2728.40; S1=2548.15, S2=2491.84; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
  • An up week following a down week; second in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
  • A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A green candle with almost no lower shadow and small upper shadows; gapped up at the open; broke above 50-day EMA
  • Nearing the upper limit of a symmetrical triangle;
  • Above 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Break above the horizontal channel continues; 61.8% extension target is near 2726.00 and 100% extension target is near 2760.00
  • Trending up since 2:00 PM on April 6
  • RSI-9 moving up, second leg, since 2:00 PM on April 13; above 80
  • Above 20-bar EMA and above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Break above an ascending triangle continues; 100% extension target is near 2720.00
  • Trending up since 3:00 PM on April 6 with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows
  • RSI is mostly moving between 40 and 65 since 8:30 AM on April 11; moving above/around 65 since 8:30 AM on April 17
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Up
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up since 2:30 AM on April 16
  • The band is small since 7:45 PM on April 16
  • RSI is mostly above 40 since 4:00 PM on April mostly above 50 since 3:45 AM on April 16;
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K has moved above/near 70 from a low of 23.52 at 5:45 AM
  • Bias: Up

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday April 17 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded down with lower volume. Major indices gapped up at the open and then did not close the gap. Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken above a descending triangle. S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index are nearing the upper limit of a symmetrical triangle. NYSE Composite continues its break above a symmetrical triangle.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Industrials
  6. Finance (unch.)
  7. Technology
  8. Utility
  9. Heath Care
  10. Real Estate
  11. Telecom

 

Morning Notes – Tuesday April 17, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; moving higher since 3:00 AM on April 16; nearing 2700.00 level
  • Odds are for an up move, but perhaps sideways move around the 2700 – watch for break above 2702.00 and below 2689.00 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data due
    • Building Permits (1.35M vs. 1.33M est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Housing Starts (1.32M vs. 1.27M est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Capacity Utilization (78.0% vs. 77.9% est.) at 9:15 AM
    • Industrial Production (0.5% vs. 0.3% est.) at 9:15 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong and Seoul were down; Tokyo, Sydney and Mumbai were up
  • European markets are up
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/INR
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • NatGas
    • Silver
    • Platinum
    • Coffee
    • Cocoa
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Copper
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Cotton
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.830%, down from April 16 close of 2.832%;
    • 30-years is at 3.023%, down from 3.030%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.390%, up from 2.378%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.440, down from 0.454

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2676.38, 2665.16 and 2656.07
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2709.79, 2739.14 and 2750.64
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2697.25, the low at 2:00 PM on March 19 and break below 2689.00, the low of 4:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2678.00 and the index closed at 2677.84 – a spread of about -0.25 points; futures closed at 2681.75 for the day; the fair value is -3.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +15.50; Dow by +207.00; and NASDAQ by +43.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Up
  • 15-Min: Up
  • 6-Min: Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on April 13 was a green candle top with small upper and lower shadow; the three-week pattern is morning star like
  • Last week’s pivot point=2610.12, R1=2666.43, R2=2728.40; S1=2548.15, S2=2491.84; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
  • An up week following a down week; second in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
  • A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A green candle with almost small lower shadow and upper shadows;
  • In the middle of a symmetrical triangle;
  • Above 20-day EMA; at 50-day EMA; below 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Break above the horizontal channel continues; 61.8% extension target is near 2726.00 and 100% extension target is near 2760.00
  • Trending up since 2:00 PM on April 6
  • RSI-9 moving up, second leg, since 2:00 PM on April 13; above 65
  • Above 20-bar EMA and above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Break above an ascending triangle continues; 100% extension target is near 2720.00
  • Trending up since 3:00 PM on April 6 with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows
  • RSI is mostly moving between 40 and 65 since 8:30 AM on April 11; moving around 65 since 11:00 PM on April 16
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Up
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up since 2:30 AM on April 16
  • The band is small since 7:45 PM on April 16
  • RSI is mostly above 40 since 4:00 PM on April mostly above 50 since 3:45 AM on April 16; near 65
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is moving around 70
  • Bias: Up

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday April 16 in mostly lower volume. Only Dow Jones Transportation Average traded with higher volume. Most indices are at 50-day EMA. Russell 2000 and DJT have just broken above it. Dow Jones Industrial Average is at the upper limit of a descending triangle. S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index are near the middle of a symmetrical triangle. NYSE Composite has broken above a symmetrical triangle.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Industrials
  6. Finance
  7. Technology
  8. Utility
  9. Heath Care
  10. Real Estate
  11. Telecom

 

Morning Notes – Friday April 13, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; fresh move up since 3:30 AM
  • Breaking above a resistance at the upper bound of a horizontal channel that is being formed since March 22
  • Odds are for an up move with high volatility – watch for break below 2669.00 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data due
    • Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (est. 100.6) at 10:00 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were mostly up – Shanghai and Hong Kong were down
  • European markets are up
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • AUD/USD
    • EUR/USD
    • USD/CHF
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • NatGas
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Cocoa
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Platinum
    • Coffee
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.8343% on April 12, up from April 11 close of 2.790%;
    • 30-years is at 3.040%, up from 3.006%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.353%, up from 2.312%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.481, up from 0.478

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2656.07, 2639.25 and 2635.78
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2674.78, 2695.68 and 2709.79
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2679.75, the high at 4:00 AM on March 27 and break below 2669.00, the low of 7:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2663.75 and the index closed at 2663.99 – a spread of about -0.25 points; futures closed at 2664.00 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +12.00; Dow by +108.00; and NASDAQ by +24.75

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Side-Up
  • 30-Min: Side-Up
  • 15-Min: Up
  • 6-Min: Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on April 6 was a small red spinning top with long upper and lower shadow;
  • Last week’s pivot point=2610.12, R1=2666.43, R2=228.40; S1=2548.15, S2=2491.84; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
  • A down week following an up week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
  • A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A green candle with almost no lower shadow and upper shadow equal to the real body;
  • In the middle of a symmetrical triangle;
  • Breaking above 20-day EMA and approaching 50-day EMA
  • Above 20-day EMA; below 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • At the upper limit of a horizontal channel that has been breached to the upside and downside at least once; channel started to form on March 22
  • Trending up since 2:00 PM on April 6
  • RSI-9 moving up since 6:00 AM on April 10; above 65
  • Above 20-bar EMA and above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side-Up
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Breaking above an ascending triangle; 100% extension target is near 2720.00
  • Trending up since 3:00 PM on April 6 with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows
  • RSI moving between 40 and 65 since 8:30 AM on April 11; near 65
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up since 12:00 AM
  • The band narrowed during early Asian session and is expanding since 1:00 AM
  • RSI is moving around 65 since 2:00 AM
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above 70
  • Bias: Up

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday April 11 in mixed volume than on Tuesday. Major indices gapped up at the open and then closed in the top half of day’s range. Most are also approaching 50-day EMA from below.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Materials
  3. Industrials
  4. Finance
  5. Technology
  6. Heath Care
  7. Telecom
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Energy
  3. Utility
  4. Real Estate