Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher; moving higher since 3:00 AM on April 16;- Odds are for an up move – watch for break below 2708.00 for change of fortunes
- Key economic data due
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mostly higher – Mumbai was down
- European markets are mostly up – Germany and STOXX 600 are down
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- EUR/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
|
- Dollar index
- GBP/USD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- USD/INR
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Cocoa
|
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield closed at 2.814%, down from April 16 close of 2.832%;
- 30-years is at 2.999%, down from 3.030%
- 2-years yield is at 2.407%, up from 2.378%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.420, down from 0.454
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2701.57, 2692.05 and 2676.38
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2739.14, 2750.64 and 2763.03
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2718.50, the high at 7:30 AM and break below 2708.50, the low of 3:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2706.50 and the index closed at 2706.39 – a spread of about -0.25 points; futures closed at 2706.50 for the day; the fair value is +0.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +9.25; Dow by +74.00; and NASDAQ by +18.50
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Up
- 30-Min: Up
- 15-Min: Up
- 6-Min: Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on April 13 was a green candle top with small upper and lower shadow; the three-week pattern is morning star like
- Last week’s pivot point=2610.12, R1=2666.43, R2=2728.40; S1=2548.15, S2=2491.84; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
- An up week following a down week; second in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
- A bearish ABCD pattern is emerging; break below 2553.80 would open up potential down targets near 2461.75 and 2251.50 levels
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A green candle with almost no lower shadow and small upper shadows; gapped up at the open; broke above 50-day EMA
- Nearing the upper limit of a symmetrical triangle;
- Above 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Break above the horizontal channel continues; 61.8% extension target is near 2726.00 and 100% extension target is near 2760.00
- Trending up since 2:00 PM on April 6
- RSI-9 moving up, second leg, since 2:00 PM on April 13; above 80
- Above 20-bar EMA and above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Up
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Break above an ascending triangle continues; 100% extension target is near 2720.00
- Trending up since 3:00 PM on April 6 with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows
- RSI is mostly moving between 40 and 65 since 8:30 AM on April 11; moving above/around 65 since 8:30 AM on April 17
- Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Up
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up since 2:30 AM on April 16
- The band is small since 7:45 PM on April 16
- RSI is mostly above 40 since 4:00 PM on April mostly above 50 since 3:45 AM on April 16;
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K has moved above/near 70 from a low of 23.52 at 5:45 AM
- Bias: Up
|
Previous Session
Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday April 17 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded down with lower volume. Major indices gapped up at the open and then did not close the gap. Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken above a descending triangle. S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index are nearing the upper limit of a symmetrical triangle. NYSE Composite continues its break above a symmetrical triangle.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance (unch.)
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
|
Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday April 17 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded down with lower volume. Major indices gapped up at the open and then did not close the gap. Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken above a descending triangle. S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index are nearing the upper limit of a symmetrical triangle. NYSE Composite continues its break above a symmetrical triangle.
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