Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher; moving mostly sideways since 4:00 AM- Breaking above a narrow horizontal channel on 15-min chart – 100% extension target near 2766.50; 161.8% extension of a symmetrical triangle on 30-min chart is near 2781.00
- Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2751.25 for a change of fortunes
- No Key economic data due
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were up
- European markets are higher
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/CHF
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
|
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Coffee
- Cotton
|
- Crude Oil
- Copper
- Sugar
- Cocoa
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.842%, down from February 23 close of 2.871%;
- 30-years is at 3.130%, down from 3.160%
- 2-years yield is at 2.238%, down from 2.254%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.604 down from 0.617
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2722.62, 2713.74 and 2697.77
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2754.42, 263.39 and 2808.92
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2761.50, the high of 4:00 AM and break below 2751.50, the low of 3:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2747.50 and the index closed at 2747.30 – a spread of about +0.00 points; futures closed at 2748.75 for the day; the fair value is -1.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +11.00; Dow by +136.00; and NASDAQ up by +26.75
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Side-Up
- 30-Min: Up
- 15-Min: Side-Up
- 6-Min: Up-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on February 23 was a small green candle with almost no upper shadow and small lower shadow following a large green bodied candle with +4.3% advance, which had followed a -5.2% decline previous week
- Last week’s pivot point=2730.94, R1=2764.12, R2=2780.93; S1=2714.13, S2=2680.95; no pivot levels were breached;
- An up week; two in a row, third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A large green candle following a red-on-red harami; breaking above a four-day down sloping flag; break above February 16 high of 2754.00 will have a target near 2860.00
- Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
- Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
- Above 20-day EMA, 5-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Breaking above the upper limit of a horizontal channel; Moving up since 8:00 AM on February 21
- RSI-9 above 75; rising since since 8:00 PM on February 21
- Above 20-bar EMA and above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Side-Up
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Broke above 1 symmetrical triangle at 11:30 AM on February 23;100% extension target near 2760.00 is achieved; the 161.8% extension target is near 2781.50
- RSI is mostly fluctuating between 65 and 75 since 2:30 PM on February 23
- Above 20-bar EMA which is above 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Up
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways with an up bias since 9:30 PM on February 25
- The band is mostly narrow since 9:30 PM on Sunday
- RSI is mostly fluctuating around 65 7:15 PM on February 25; now falling toward 50
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is moving down since 3:45 AM; now below 20
- Bias: Side-Up
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Friday February 23 but with reduced volume. The indices are breaking above a four-day down sloping flag. a break above the high of February 16.
For the week, major indices advanced but in reduced volume. All but three S&P 500 sectors also advanced. The sector that were lower for the week were Consumer Staples, Health Care and Telecom.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Friday February 23 but with reduced volume. The indices are breaking above a four-day down sloping flag. a break above the high of February 16.
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