Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are lower from previous close but above from NYSE session close- Moving slightly down since 8:30 PM on Monday forming a down-sloping flag on 30-Minute chart
- Odds are for a sideways to an up day – watch for break above 2784.5o and break below 2774.50 for a change of fortunes
- Key economic data:
- Core Durable Goods Orders (-0.3% vs. 0.4% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Durable Goods Orders (-3.7% vs. -2.4% est.) at 8:30 AM
- CB Consumer Confidence (est. 126.2) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mostly down – Tokyo and Sydney were up
- European markets are lower
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CAD
|
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
|
|
- Crude Oil
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Cocoa
- Cotton
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield closed at 2.859% on February 26, down from February 23 close of 2.871%;
- 30-years closed at 3.155%, down from 3.160%
- 2-years yield is at 2.218%, down from 2.254%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.641 up from 0.633
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2770.41, 2753.78 and 2722.62
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2796.15, 2808.92 and 2827.25
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2784.25, the high of 3:00 AM and break below 2774.50, the low of 6:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2779.25 and the index closed at 2779.60 – a spread of about -0.25 points; futures closed at 2784.50 for the day; the fair value is -4.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -2.75; Dow by -16.00; and NASDAQ by -4.25
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Side-Up
- 30-Min: Up-Side
- 15-Min: Up-Side
- 6-Min: Up-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on February 23 was a small green candle with almost no upper shadow and small lower shadow following a large green bodied candle with +4.3% advance, which had followed a -5.2% decline previous week
- Last week’s pivot point=2730.94, R1=2764.12, R2=2780.93; S1=2714.13, S2=2680.95; no pivot levels were breached;
- An up week; two in a row, third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A large green candle that gapped at the open; the gap was not filled; almost no upper and lower shadows
- Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
- Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
- Above 20-day EMA, 5-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Moving sideways since 4:00 PM on Monday after breaking above the upper limit of a horizontal channel;
- RSI-9 above 75; coming down from a high of 89.754 at 6:00 PM on Monday
- Above 20-bar EMA and above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Side-Up
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Above an uptrend line from the low of 2682.00 at 8:00 PM on February 21; sequence of higher highs and higher lows
- Down-sloping channel emerging since 8:30 PM on February 26
- RSI is trending down since 4:30 PM on Monday from a high of 80.49; bouncing off 50
- At 20-bar EMA which is above 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Up-Side
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways with a down bias since 9:30 PM on February 26
- The band is mostly narrow since 9:30 PM on Monday
- RSI is mostly fluctuating between 50 and 50 since 10:00 PM on Monday
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is bouncing from near 0 at 6:00 AM to above 70 by 7:15 AM
- Bias: Up-Side
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday February 26, however, the volume was higher for Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average only.
Major U.S. indices are breaking above a 4-5 days congestion zone that was shaping as down-sloping flag.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
- Utility
|
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday February 26, however, the volume was higher for Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average only.
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