Morning Notes – Friday February 23, 2018

/ February 23, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; moving mostly sideways since 7:30 PM on Thursday
  • Emerging symmetrical triangle on 30-minute charts since 12:00 PM on Thursday
  • Odds are for an up day but mostly sideways from pre-open level – watch for break above 2727.75 and below 2713.00 for a change of fortunes
  • No Key economic data due

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were up
  • European markets are mixed – German, France, Italy and STOXX 600 are up; U.K. Spain and Switzerland are down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • EUR/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.892%, down from February 22 close of 2.917%;
    • 30-years is at 3.177%, down from 3.206%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.242%, down from 2.254%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.650 down from 0.663

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2697.77, 2689.82 and 2648.87
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2731.260, 2747.75 and 2754.42
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2727.75, the high of 1:30 AM and break below 2713.00, the low of 5:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2703.25 and the index closed at 2703.96 – a spread of about -1.00 points; futures closed at 2711.50 for the day; the fair value is -8.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is  to the upside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +7.25; Dow by +72.00; and NASDAQ up by +32.75

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Down-Side
  • 30-Min: Side
  • 15-Min: Side
  • 6-Min: Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on February 16 was a large green bodied candle with +4.3% advance decline following -5.2% decline previous week
  • Last week’s pivot point=2703.03, R1=2783.61, R2=2835.00; S1=2651.64, S2=2571.06; R1 was breached;
  • An up week; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A red-on-red harami candle with longer upper shadow
  • Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
  • Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
  • At 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Moving sideways along the EMA50 since 8:00 AM on February 22
  • RSI-9 fluctuating between 65 and 50 since 4:00 PM on February 22
  • A/above 20-bar EMA and at/above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Down-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Within a symmetrical triangle emerging since 12:00 PM on February 22; break above could take price near 2747.00 and break below could take it near 2680.00
  • RSI is mostly fluctuating between 65 and 50 since 5:30 AM on February 22
  • Above 20-bar EMA which is above 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 7:30 PM on February 22
  • The band is mostly narrow since NYSE session close
  • RSI is mostly fluctuating between 65 and 40 since 11:15 PM on February 21
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is moving up after making a divergence at :30 AM; oscillating above 80
  • Bias: Side

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday February 22 with reduced volume. NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 closed lower. The indices were higher during the day but turned down midday and lost a major portion of day’s gains. Most major indices also briefly breached Wednesday’s

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Industrials
  6. Technology
  7. Utility
  8. Real Estate
  1. Finance
  2. Heath Care
  3. Telecom

 

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Related posts