Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are little changed at 9:15 AM, moving sideways since 4:00 PM on Tuesday between 4041.50 and 4022.75
• The market is awaiting the FOMC decision and the press conference
• The odds are for a sideways to an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 4041.50 or a break below 4022.75 for clarity
• The major economic data report is due during the day:
  • FOMCE Economic Projections at 2:00 PM
  • Federal Funds Rate ( 5.00% est.; prev. 4.75%) at 2:00 PM
  • FOMC Statement at 2:00 PM
  • FOMCE Press Conference at 2:30 PM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure Daily: In Correction 120-Min: Side-Up

30-Min: Up-Side 15-Min: Side 6-Min:  Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3995.08, 3971.19, and 3956.27
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4017.81, 4047.00, and 4077.84
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4041.50, a high at 7:15 AM,  and a break below 4022.75, a low at 4:15 AM

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 4038.50, and the index closed at 4002.87 – a spread of about +35.50 points; the futures closed at 4035.75; the fair value is +2.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +1.75, Dow up by +29, and NASDAQ down by -1.25

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed higher
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD INR/USD	Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are higher
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.606, down -36.9 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.737%, down -15.1 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.166%, down -73.5 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.560, up from -0.926
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.131, up from -0.087
• VIX
  • At 21.01 @ 9:0 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 30.81 on March 13; low = 18.16 on March 3
  • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on March 17 was a small green candle that looks like an In-NEck candlestick pattern, which is a continuation pattern Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed above the %D; RSI-9 is just below 55 The week was up +55.05 or +1.4%; the 5-week ATR  is 151.15 An up week, second in the last five weeks, and fifth in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=3896.65, R1=3984.45, R2=4052.25; S1=3828.85, S2=3741.05; No pivot levels were breached Below 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily	A green candle that gapped up at the open with a small upper shadow and almost no lower shadow Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above the %D. RSI-9 is above 50; above 8-DMA Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA; In Correction
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Within an up-sloping flag since 2:00 PM on March 9 – at/near the upper bound RSI-21 has declined to 65 from above 70 after making a Bearish Divergence at 2:00 PM on Tuesday Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias:  Side-Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Broke above a Double Bottom – the 61.8% extension target is near 4080.00, and the 100% extension target is near 4125.00 RSI-21 is moving above 60 Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways since 7:30 PM. The Bollinger Band expanded at 3:00 AM, with the price first walking down the lower band and then bouncing up to the upper band – it has been stabilizing since 7:00 AM with the price decline to the middle band from the upper band. Bias: Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday, March 21, in mostly lower volume.  Dow Jones Industrial Average traded in higher volume.

The major indices gapped up at the open. NASDAQ Composite closed its gap, but S&P 500 did not. The indices closed near the high for the day.

All but three S&P sectors – Consumer Staples, Real Estate, and Utilities – closed up.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The main indices maintained a position in positive territory throughout today’s session, led by gains in the bank stocks. With today’s move, the S&P 500 recouped the entirety of the ground that had been lost since March 8 when the SVB Financial blowup started to hit the scene. […] The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) rose 5.3% and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) rose 5.8%. […] The 2-yr note yield rose 26 basis points to 4.18% and the 10-yr note yield rose 13 basis points to 3.61%. Nasdaq Composite: +13.3% YTD S&P 500: +4.3% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +0.9% YTD Russell 2000: +1.1% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.8% YTD […] Existing home sales surged 14.5% month-over-month in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million (Briefing.com consensus 4.16 million) versus an unrevised 4.00 million in January. Sales increased on a month-over-month basis in February for the first time in 13 months. Total sales in February were down 22.6% from a year ago. […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX +1.8%, FTSE +1.8%, CAC +1.4% Asia: Nikkei market closed, Hang Seng +1.4%, Shanghai +0.6% Commodities:  Crude Oil +1.81 @ 69.48 Nat Gas +0.09 @ 2.45 Gold -41.80 @ 1941.30 Silver -0.25 @ 22.40 Copper +0.04 @ 4.00