Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:45 AM; trending up since 4:15 AM on Monday- up 30 points since 2:00 AM
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 3989.75 for a change of sentiments
• The major economic data report is due during the day:
  • Existing Home Sales ( 4.19M est.; prev. 4.00M) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure Daily: In Correction 120-Min: Side-Up

30-Min: Side-Up 15-Min: Up 6-Min:  Up

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3969.76, 3956.62, and 3923.38
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4017.81, 4047.00, and 4077.84
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4035.00, a high at 12:00 PM on March 9,  and a break below 3989.75, a low at 4:00 AM

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 3984.50, and the index closed at 3951.57 – a spread of about +33.00 points; the futures closed at 3983.00; the fair value is +1.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +32.75, Dow by +275, and NASDAQ by +75.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed higher – Tokyo was closed for trading
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
EUR/USD GBP/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD INR/USD	Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.573, down -41.0 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.724%, down -18.9 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.991%, down -91.0 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.418, up from -0.918
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.151, up from -0.070
• VIX
  • At 22.75 @ 8:15 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 30.81 on March 13; low = 18.16 on March 3
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on March 17 was a small green candle that looks like an In-NEck candlestick pattern, which is a continuation pattern Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed above the %D; RSI-9 is just below 55 The week was up +55.05 or +1.4%; the 5-week ATR  is 151.15 An up week, second in the last five weeks, and fifth in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=3896.65, R1=3984.45, R2=4052.25; S1=3828.85, S2=3741.05; No pivot levels were breached Below 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily	A relatively small green Harami candle that closed near the previous day’s high Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above the %D. RSI-9 is near 50; above 8-DMA Below 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA; In Correction
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Within an up-sloping flag since 2:00 PM on March 9 – near the upper bound RSI-21 is above 70 after making a bullish Hidden Divergence at 2:00 AM on Monday Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias:  Side-Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Broke above a Double Bottom – the 61.8% extension target is near 4080.00, and the 100% extension target is near 4125.00 RSI-21 is moving above 65 Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving up since 6:00 AM on Monday. The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 3:30 AM, with the price walking up the upper band Bias: Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday, March 20, in lower volume. The major indices opened up and then drifted higher for the rest of the day. All S&P sectors closed up.

From Briefing.com:

[…] Mega cap stocks, which enjoyed a leadership role last week, were relative underperformers today […] The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) was up a modest 0.2% versus the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), which rose 1.3%. The market-cap weighted S&P 500 advanced 0.9%, pushing above its 200-day moving average (3,935), which pivoted from resistance to support. […] The Russell 2000 rose 1.1% and the S&P Mid Cap 400 rose 1.7%. All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed with gains ranging from 0.2% (information technology) to 2.1% (energy). The 2-yr note yield rose 10 basis points today to 3.92% and the 10-yr note yield rose nine basis points to 3.48%, as market participants anxiously await the FOMC decision on March 22. Nasdaq Composite: +11.6% YTD S&P 500: +2.9% YTD S&P Midcap 400: -0.7% YTD Russell 2000: -0.9% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: -2.7% YTD […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX +1.1%, FTSE +0.9%, CAC +1.3% Asia: Nikkei -1.4%, Hang Seng -0.5%, Shanghai -2.7% Commodities:  Crude Oil +0.80 @ 67.67 Nat Gas -0.10 @ 2.36 Gold +7.70 @ 1983.10 Silver +0.15 @ 22.65 Copper +0.06 @ 3.96