Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:45 AM. Broken below an up-sloping flag – a break  below 3977 will have a target around 3920.00
• The odds are for a sideways to down day from the pre-open levels around 3990.00, with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 4001.25 for a change of sentiments
• The major economic data report is due during the day:
  • Unemployment Claims ( 191K s. 198K est.; prev. 192K) at 8:30 AM
  • Current Account ( -207B vs. -213B est.; prev. 2-219B) at 8:30 AM
  • New Home Sales ( 650K est.; prev. 670K) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3936.34, 3923.38, and 3864.11
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3971.19, 3978.62, and 4006.28
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4001.25, a high at 4:45 AM,  and a break below 3977.25, a low at 6:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 3969.00, and the index closed at 3936.97 – a spread of about +32.00 points; the futures closed at 3970.25; the fair value is -1.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +19.75, Dow by +56, and NASDAQ by +116.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Seoul closed higher; Tokyo, Sydney, Mumbai, and Singapore closed lower
• European markets are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are higher
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.488, down -48.8 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.698%, down -18.0 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.935%, down -108.0 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.447, up from -1.039
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.210, up from -0.098
• VIX
  • At 21.82 @ 6:45 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 30.81 on March 13; low = 18.16 on March 3
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday, March 22, in mostly higher volume.  Dow Jones Industrial Average traded in lower volume.

For most of the day, the major indices oscillated within a narrow range below the previous day’s close. The volatility increased after the FOMC decision at 2:00 PM. The indices turned down decisively in the last hour of trading. S&P 500 declined more than 100 points from its high at 2:45 PM. Most indices made Bearish Engulfing candlestick formations.

All S&P sectors closed down. Consumer Discretionary, XLY, performed the worst.

From Briefing.com:

[…] Bank stocks found themselves under renewed selling pressure, with losses compounding during and after the press conference. […] The S&P 500 retraced all of yesterday’s gains and closed just above its 200-day moving average (3,934). All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed with sizable losses ranging from 0.9% (information technology) to 3.6% (real estate). Another notable laggard was the financial sector, down 2.4%. Treasuries settled the session with gains across the curve. The 2-yr note yield fell 20 basis points and the 10-yr note yield fell 11 basis points to 3.50%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.9% to 102.38. Nasdaq Composite: +11.5% YTD S&P 500: +2.5% YTD S&P Midcap 400: -1.4% YTD Russell 2000: -1.9% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: -3.4% YTD […] Weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index rose 3.0% with refinancing applications increasing 5.0% and purchase applications rising 2.0% Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a draw of 1.06 million barrels following a build of 1.55 million […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX +0.1%, FTSE +0.4%, CAC +0.3% Asia: Nikkei +1.9%, Hang Seng +1.7%, Shanghai +0.3% Commodities:  Crude Oil +1.31 @ 70.79 Nat Gas -0.11 @ 2.34 Gold +10.20 @ 1951.50 Silver +0.40 @ 22.80 Copper +0.04 @ 4.04