Morning Notes – Tuesday, November 30, 2021

/ November 30, 2021

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower at 8:30 AM;
  • The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 4620.25 for a change of sentiments
  • Key economic data report due during the day:
    • HPI ( 1.2% est.; prev. 1.0%) at 9:00 AM
    • S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI ( 19.3% est.; prev. 19.7%) at 9:00 AM
    • Chicago PMI ( 67.1 est.; prev. 68.4) at 9:45 AM
    • CB Consumer Confidence ( 110.8 est.; prev. 113.8) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

  • Weekly: Uptrend
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Side-Down
  • 30-Min: Down-Side
  • 15-Min: Down-Side
  • 6-Min: Down-Side

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4608.69, 4585.43, and 4567.59
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4625.26, 4653.36, and 4672.95
  • Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4620.25, the high of 2:15 AM and break below 4588.50, the low of 4:15 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Monday at 1:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2021) closed at 4650.50 and the index closed at 4655.27 – a spread of about -4.75 points; futures closed at 4651.00 for the day; the fair value is -0.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 6:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -43.25; Dow by -410; and NASDAQ by -78.00

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Shanghai and Sydney closed up
  • European markets are lower
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CAD
    • INR/USD
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are lower
    • Precious metals are lower
    • Industrial metals are lower
    • Soft commodities are mostly lower
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • 10-years yield closed at 1.530%, down -9.3 basis points from two weeks ago;
    • 30-years is at 1.880%, down -12.7 basis points;
    • 2-years yield is at 0.488%, down -3.6 basis points;
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 1.042, down from 1.099
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.350, down from 0.384
  • VIX
    • At 27.16 @ 6:15 AM; up from the last close; above 5-day SMA;
    • Recent high = 28.99 on November 26; low =  16.03 on November 16
    • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly
  • October 2021 was a Bullish Engulfing candle with  small lower shadow and almost no upper shadow; at all-time closing and intra-month highs;
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K above %D; near 100;
    • RSI-9 is turning up; above 75
    • Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel;
  • Confirmed Uptrend: sequence of higher highs and higher lows
Weekly:
  • The week ending on November 26 was a relatively large Bearish Engulfing candle with almost no lower shadow and a small upper shadow
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below %D; below 70
    • RSI-9 is just below 60
  • The week was down -103.34 or -2.3%; the 5-week ATR  is 96.32
  • A down week; second in the last five weeks, and third in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=4641.29, R1=4697.16, R2=4799.69; S1=4538.76, S2=4482.89; R1/R2/S1/S2/S3 pivot levels were breached
  • Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA; above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
Daily
  • A green Harami candle near the previous day’s high; almost no lower shadow and a small upper shadow
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D from near 5
    • RSI-9 turned up from just above 30 to near 50; below 8-day EMA
  • At/above 20-day EMA; Above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Broken below a Horizontal Channel between 4711.75 and 4625.25 for the second time in two days; the 61.8% extension target is near 4571.00 and the 100 % extension target is near 4538.00
    • RSI-21 is near 30
  • Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side-Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Moving down since 8:00 PM; below a congestion zone around 4635.00
    • RSI-21 moving below 40
    • Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has moved down from 11:45 PM; moving sideways since 5:15 AM
  • The Bollinger Band expanded from 11:45 PM to 5:00 AM but has narrowed since;
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crisscrossing %D higher at 6:45 AM;
  • Bias: Down-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Monday, November 29, in mixed volume. Russell 2000 closed lower. Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite traded in higher volume. Major indices opened higher and first traded down and then up during the day. Most made green Harami candlestick patterns. NASDAQ is making a three-day Evening Star pattern and a break above Monday’s high will complete the pattern. Russell 2000 is showing most weakness.

From Briefing.com:

The stock market began the week on a strong note with the Nasdaq (+1.9%) recovering the bulk of its loss from Friday. The S&P 500 (+1.3%) and Dow (+0.7%) recorded slimmer gains, finishing near their opening levels from Friday.

[…]

All eleven sectors finished the day with gains. Five sectors added more than 1.0% with technology (+2.6%), consumer discretionary (+1.6%), and utilities (+1.6%) finishing in the lead.

[…]

Treasuries ended in the red, but above their opening levels with the 10-yr yield rising five basis points to 1.53%.

Today’s economic data was limited to the Pending Home Sales report for October, which showed a 7.5% increase (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%) while the September decrease was revised down to 2.4% from -2.3%.

[…]
  • S&P 500 +23.9% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite +22.5% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +14.8% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +13.5% YTD

Overseas: 

  • Europe: DAX +0.2%, FTSE +0.9%, CAC +0.5%
  • Asia: Nikkei -1.6%, Hang Seng -1.0%, Shanghai flat

Commodities: 

  • Crude Oil +0.78 @ 69.58
  • Nat Gas -0.62 @ 4.84
  • Gold -3.60 @ 1781.10
  • Silver -0.28 @ 22.77
  • Copper +0.06 @ 4.35
Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Related posts