Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:30 AM;
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 4596.00 for a change of sentiments
• Key economic data report due during the day:
  • Final Manufacturing PMI ( 9.1 est.; prev. 59.1) at 9:45 AM
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI ( 61.3 est.; prev. 60.8) at 10:00 AM
  • Construction Spending ( 0.4% est.; prev.-0.5%) at 10:00 AM
  • ISM Manufacturing Prices ( 85.5 est.; prev. 85.7) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure 120-Min: Side-Down

30-Min: Down-Side 15-Min: Side-Up 6-Min: Side-Up

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4599.21, 4560.00, and 4551.95
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4646.02, 4653.36, and 4672.95
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4644.25, the high of 10:30 AM on Tuesday and break below 4596.00, the low of 3:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2021) closed at 4562.75 and the index closed at 4567.00 – a spread of about -4.25 points; futures closed at 4566.25 for the day; the fair value is -3.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 7:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +59.75; Dow by +335; and NASDAQ by +239.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Sydney closed down
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index EUR/USD USD/CAD INR/USD	GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 1.443%, down -19.1 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 1.787%, down -23.1 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 0.576%, up +3.4 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.876, down from 1.110
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.344, down from 0.384
• VIX
  • At 23.88 @ 6:30 AM; down from the last close; below 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 28.99 on November 26; low =  16.03 on November 16
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly	November 2021 was a Shooting Star candle at all-time highs; watch for a close below November’s lows; Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below %D; from near 100; %D Bearish Divergence RSI-9 is turning down from above 75; Bearish Divergence Above the upper band of a 120-month regression channel; Confirmed Uptrend: sequence of higher highs and higher lows
Weekly:	The week ending on November 26 was a relatively large Bearish Engulfing candle with almost no lower shadow and a small upper shadow Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below %D; below 70 RSI-9 is just below 60 The week was down -103.34 or -2.3%; the 5-week ATR  is 96.32 A down week; second in the last five weeks, and third in the previous ten weeks The weekly pivot point=4641.29, R1=4697.16, R2=4799.69; S1=4538.76, S2=4482.89; R1/R2/S1/S2/S3 pivot levels were breached Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA; above 89-week SMA Uptrend
Daily	A relatively large red candle that opened lower with almost no upper and lower shadows; Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below %D; below 5 RSI-9 is dropped to near 35; below 8-day EMA Below 20-day EMA; At/above 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Bouncing off the lows at 4557.00 to the lower bound of the broken Horizontal Channel between 4711.75 and 4625.25; the 61.8% extension target near 4571.00 is achieved; the 100 % extension target is near 4538.00 RSI-21 bounced up above 55 from near 30; Bullish Divergence Above EMA20 but below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side-Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving up since 3:#0 PM on Tuesday; near a congestion zone around 4635.00 RSI-21 moved to near 60 from below 40 and after a Bullish Divergence; Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up since 8:00 PM The Bollinger Band is stable but slightly expanded Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above %D near 80 at 7:30 AM; Bias: Side-Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Tuesday, November 30, in higher volume. Major indices opened lower and then tried to recover but their recovery faltered late morning and they fell sharply in the afternoon. All S&P sectors closed down.

In November, most major indices closed lower in higher mostly volume. NASDAQ Composite closed higher and S&P 5pp traded in lower volume. Most markets in Europe and Asia closed lower. The Dollar index closed up, hard commodities closed down, and most soft commodities also closed down. The US Treasury yields were down for the month. All but two S&P sectors – Consumer Discretionary and Technology – closed down.

From Briefing.com:

The stock market fell sharply on Tuesday, as risk sentiment was first pressured by the Omicron variant and then by commentary from Fed Chair Powell about inflation and monetary policy. The S&P 500 (-1.9%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.9%), and Russell 2000 (-1.9%) each declined 1.9% while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.6%. All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed lower with losses ranging from 1.0% (information technology) to 3.0% (communication services). [..] The fed-funds-sensitive 2-yr yield went from 0.43% to 0.56% during Fed Chair Powell’s Q&A session. It eventually settled unchanged at 0.52%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.5% to 95.85. WTI crude futures dropped 5.3%, or $3.70, to $66.14/bbl. The CBOE Volatility Index (27.19, +4.23, +18.4%) jumped above 27.00. […] The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 109.5 in November (Briefing.com consensus 111.0) from a downwardly revised 111.6 (from 113.8) in October. That is the lowest reading since February 2021. The Chicago PMI dropped to 61.8 in November (Briefing.com consensus 67.0) from 68.4 in October. The FHFA Housing Price Index increased 0.9% m/m in September following an unrevised 1.0% increase in August. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index increased 19.1% yr/yr in September (Briefing.com consensus 19.3%) following a revised 19.6% (from 19.7%) increase in August. […] S&P 500 +21.6% YTD Nasdaq Composite +20.6% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average +12.7% YTD Russell 2000 +11.4% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -1.2%, FTSE -0.7%, CAC -0.8% Asia: Nikkei -1.6%, Hang Seng -1.6%, Shanghai flat Commodities:  Crude Oil -3.12 @ 66.46 Nat Gas -0.25 @ 4.59 Gold -4.70 @ 1776.40 Silver +0.08 @ 22.85 Copper -0.05 @ 4.30