Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are moving up since 12:00 AM after declining from all time high at 11:45 AM on Thursday;
- The odds are for an up to sideways day; watch for break above 3097.00 and below 3076.75 for clarity
- Key economic data due:
- Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment ( 96.0 est.; prev. 05.5) at 10:00 AM
- Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations ( prev. 2.5%_ at 10:00 AM
- Final Wholesale Inventories (-0.;3% est. ; prev. -0.3%) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3080.23, 3065.89 and 3050.72
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3097.70, 3105.27 and 3112.76
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 3090.50, the high of 7:00 PM and break below 3076.75, the low of 12:00 AM
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future closed at 3084.50 and the index closed at 3085.18 – a spread of about -0.75 points; futures closed at 3086.00 for the day; the fair value is -1.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 7:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +1.00; Dow down by +27 and NASDAQ by +1.50
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Tokyo was up
- European markets are lower
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield closed at 1.926%, up from November 6 close of 1.814%;
- 30-years is at 2.403%, up from 2.297%
- 2-years yield is at 1.673%, up from 1.613%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.253 up from 0.201
- Is at 12.84 up from November 7 close of 12.73; at/above 5-day SMA
- Recent high was 13.95 on October 31; recent low was 12.19 on October 31
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday, November 7 in mixed volume. NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 traded in lower volume. Most indices made a doji pattern with longer upper shadow and shorter lower shadow. The indices gapped up at the open but the mostly declined in the afternoon.
The stock market rallied to new highs on Thursday after China’s Commerce Ministry said it reached an agreement with the U.S. for both sides to phase out tariffs. News of internal strife within the White House about those plans, however, curbed some enthusiasm in the market. The S&P 500 finished near its lows but still added 0.3% to close at a record high.
The Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%) and Russell 2000 (+0.3%) also closed near lows with 0.3% gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.7%) outperformed and closed at a record high.
The market has been optimistic, though, and investors still leaned on the side of risk, evident by the outperformance of the cyclical sectors and the sell-off in the U.S. Treasury market. The S&P 500 energy sector (+1.6%) outperformed alongside higher oil prices ($57.11, +0.76, +1.4%), followed by the communication services (+0.7%), information technology (+0.7%), and financials (+0.7%) sectors.
The 2-yr yield rose seven basis points to 1.67%, and the 10-yr yield rose 11 basis points to 1.93%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.2% to 98.13.
This curve-steepening activity benefited the financials sector, but the higher yields undercut buying interest in the rate-sensitive utilities (-1.4%) and real estate (-1.1%) sectors. The consumer discretionary (-0.6%) and consumer staples (-0.4%) sectors were the other two sectors that finished lower.
The trade-sensitive Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased 0.7%, although it was up as much as 1.8% in the session. The group still outperformed, though, largely due to the positive reaction to Qualcomm’s (QCOM 89.98, +5.35, +6.3%) better-than-expected quarterly results.
• Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 2 decreased by 8,000 to 211,000 (Briefing.com consensus 217,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending October 26 decreased by 3,000 to 1.689 million.
o The key takeaway from the report is that it is consistent with a job market that remains on solid footing, which will keep recession concerns at bay.
• The Consumer Credit report for September showed an increase of $9.5 billion (Briefing.com consensus $14.0 billion), and August credit growth was unrevised at $17.9 billion.