Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher;
- The odds are for an up day with good chance of sideways move from current level – watch for break below 3078.00 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- Unemployment Claims ( 211K vs. 215K ; prev. 219K ) at 8:30 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3065.89, 3050.72 and 3038.66
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3085.20, 3093.90 and 3100.00
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 3092.50, the high of 2:30 AM and break below 3085.25, the low of 3:00 AM
- On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future closed at 3074.00 and the index closed at 3076.78 – a spread of about -2.75 points; futures closed at 3075.50 for the day; the fair value is -1.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +12.75; Dow down by +156 and NASDAQ by +39.75
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed higher
- European markets are mostly higher – Switzerland is lower
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield closed at 1.814%, down from November 5 close of 1.866%;
- 30-years is at 2.297%, down from 2.348%
- 2-years yield is at 1.613%, down from 1.629%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.201 down from 0.237
- Is at 12.51 down from November 6 close of 12.62; above 5-day SMA 12.67
- Recent high was 13.95 on October 31; recent low was 12.19 on October 31
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
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|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Most major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Wednesday, November 6 in mixed volume. S&P 500 and NYSE Composite closed higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in higher volume. The day’s price action was sideways or indecisive and the range was relatively small.
The stock market closed little changed on Wednesday, marking its second straight pause near record highs as investors digested a possible pushback in the timeline for a trade deal. The S&P 500 (+0.1%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (unch), and Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%) closed within 0.3% of their flat lines, while the Russell 2000 (-0.6%) underperformed.
The S&P 500 energy sector, however, did succumb to a 2.3% pullback following disappointing earnings results and guidance from Diamondback Energy (FANG 77.20, -13.03, -14.4%) and a decline in oil prices ($56.35, -0.89, -1.6%). The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (-0.8%) also gave back some gains in response to Microchip’s (MCHP 95.62, -4.40, -4.4%) results and guidance and perhaps amid a more cautious trade outlook.
On the other hand, the financials sector (+0.4%) provided the broader market some influential support. The health care (+0.6%), consumer staples (+0.5%), and real estate (+0.5%) sectors also outperformed, likely benefiting from their defensive-oriented dispositions.
U.S. Treasuries finished the session on a higher note, having received increased demand following the latest trade update. The 2-yr yield declined three basis points to 1.60%, and the 10-yr yield declined five basis points to 1.81%. The U.S. Dollar Index remained little changed at 97.95.
• Nonfarm business sector labor productivity declined 0.3% in the third quarter (Briefing.com consensus +1.0%), according to the BLS, after increasing an upwardly revised 2.5% (from 2.3%) in the second quarter. Unit labor costs jumped 3.6% (Briefing.com consensus +2.1%) after increasing a downwardly revised 2.4% (from 2.6%) in the second quarter.
o The key takeaway from the report is that it points to profit margin pressures for businesses with the decline in productivity and the jump in unit labor costs; it is also the first decline in productivity since the fourth quarter of 2015.
• The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index ticked down 0.1% following a 0.6% increase in the prior week.