Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are moving sideways since 3:00 PM on Thursday
- Veterans Day Federal holiday; no bonds trading
- The odds are for a sideways to an up day; watch for break above 3097.00 and below 3072.50 for clarity
- No key economic data due:
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3083.41, 3073.58 and 3065.89
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3097.70, 3106.10 and 3119.10
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 3083.25, the high of 3:30 AM and break below 3072.50, the low of 10:00 AM on Friday
- On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future closed at 3092.00 and the index closed at 3093.08 – a spread of about -1.00 points; futures closed at 3090.50 for the day; the fair value is +1.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -12.25; Dow down by -110 and NASDAQ by -32.75
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Sydney and Mumbai were up
- European markets are lower
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield closed at 1.943%, up from November 7 close of 1.926%;
- 30-years is at 2.427%, up from 2.403%
- 2-years yield is at 1.670%, down from 1.673%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.273 down from 0.253
- Is at 13.32 up from November 8 close of 12.07; above 5-day SMA
- Recent high was 13.95 on October 31; recent low was 12.07 on November 8
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
For the week, major indices closed higher in lower volume. Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Utilities and Real Estate closed lower for the week.
The S&P 500 (+0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.02%) closed at record highs on Friday, even as President Trump said he had not yet agreed to roll back existing tariffs. The Russell 2000 increased 0.3%.
The S&P 500 health care (+0.8%) and information technology (+0.6%) sectors posted decent gains, while the energy (-0.8%), utilities (-0.4%), and real estate (-0.2%) sectors finished lower.
The U.S. Treasury market finished relatively unchanged in a quiet session. The 2-yr yield declined one basis point to 1.66%, and the 10-yr yield increased one basis point to 1.93%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.2% to 98.37. WTI crude increased 0.2% (+$0.10) to $57.21/bbl.
• The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November crossed at 95.7 (Briefing.com consensus 95.0), which was slightly better than expected and roughly even with the final reading of 95.5 for October.
o The key takeaway from the report is that consumer expectations increased from October, underscoring an otherwise confident attitude that should continue to manifest itself in relatively solid consumer spending activity.
• Wholesale inventories declined 0.4% m/m in September (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%), on top of a downwardly revised 0.1% increase (from +0.2%) in August. That was the largest decline since October 2017. Wholesale sales were flat in September after declining 0.1% in August.
o The key takeaway from the report is that it could prove difficult for wholesalers to gain pricing power given that inventory growth remains well ahead of sales growth on a yr/yr basis.