Morning Notes – Tuesday July 31, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; moving up from a low of 2798.25 since 12:30 PM on July 30; near a resistance level
  • Odds are for a sideways to up day, with high volatility – watch for break above 2811.75 and below 2804.75 for clarity
  • Key economic data due:
    • Core PCE Price Index (0.1% vs. 0.1% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Employment Cost Index (0.6% vs. 0.7% est.) at 8:30 Am
    • Personal Spending (0.4% vs. 0.4% est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Hong Kong was down
  • European markets are mostly higher – Germany is lower
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • AUD/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CHF
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/INR
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Gold
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.958%, down from July 30 close of 2.975%;
    • 30-years is at 3.081%, down from 3.106%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.690%, up from 2.666%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.268, down from 0.309

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2798.11, 2795.14 and 2789.24
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2810.55, 2821.74 and 2825.33
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2811.50, the high of 7:30 AM and break below 2804.75, the low of 4:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2804.00 and the index closed at 2802.60 – a spread of about +1.5 points; futures closed at 2803.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +7.25; Dow by +25.00; and NASDAQ by +26.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Down-Side
  • 15-Min: Side
  • 6-Min: Side-Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on July 20 was a green candle that broke above a doji candle of previous week; the real body smaller than the upper shadow
  • Last week’s pivot point=2820.66, R1=2846.19, R2=2873.55; S1=2793.30, S2=2767.77; R1/R2/R3 pivot levels were breached;
  • A fourth up week in a row; fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
  • Broke above an ascending triangle but retraced back to its upper limit; 100% extension target is near 3070.00 level
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
Daily
  • A relatively large red candle following a bearish engulfing candle, which had engulfed a harami-doji; small lower shadow and smaller upper shadow
  • Above previous swing low
  • %K is below %D after making a bearish divergence
  • At/above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Downtrend since July 25 2:00 PM high of 2849.50; broke below an upsloping flag at 8:00 AM on July 27; broke above a downtrend line
  • RSI-9 moving up from a low of 15.16 at 12:00 AM on July 30; made a bullish divergence at 2:00 PM on July 30
  • Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Broke below a support zone or lower limit of a horizontal channel near 2833.00 at 10:00 AM on Julye 27; achieved 200% extension target near 2800.00
  • RSI-9 rising form a low of 13.37 at 12:30 PM on July 27; made a bullish engulfing at 12:30 PM on July 30; above 40 since 4:30 PM on July 30
  • Above 50-bar EMA, which is above 20-bar EMA
  • Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways with an up bias 6:00 PM on July 30
  • The band was narrow from 10:00 PM to 6:00 AM; expanding since then with price moving along the upper band
  • RSI between 40 and 65 since 4:30 PM on July 30; near 65 since 6:45 AM
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below %D above 80 at 6:45 AM and made a bearish divergence at 7:45 AM
  • Bias: Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday July 30. The volume was lower for most except for NASDAQ Composite. NASAQ and Russell 2000 are leading the market down. Dow Jones Transportation Average is performing better than other followed by NYSE Composite.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Energy
  2. Finance
  3. Heath Care
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Materials
  4. Industrials
  5. Technology
  6. Utility
  7. Real Estate
  8. Telecom

 

Morning Notes – Monday July 30, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are unchanged to down; moving up from a low of 2806.50 since 10:30 PM on Sunday
  • Odds are for a sideways to up day, with high volatility – watch for break above 2821.25 and below 2812.50 for clarity
  • No key economic data due:

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Mumbai was up
  • European markets are mostly lower – U.K. and Switzerland are up
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • USD/INR
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • Silver
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Copper
    • Platinum
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.984%, up from July 27 close of 2.960%;
    • 30-years is at 3.112%, up from 3.088%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.678%, up from 2.674%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.306, up from 0.286

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2808.34, 2795.14 and 2789.24
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2820.55, 2825.33 and 2843.17
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2821.25, the high of 3:30 PM on July 27 and break below 2812.50, the low of 4:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2820.00 and the index closed at 2818.82 – a spread of about +0.75 points; futures closed at 2817.50 for the day; the fair value is +0.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is little changed – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +0.75; Dow up by +37.00; and NASDAQ down by -0.50

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Down-Side
  • 15-Min: Side
  • 6-Min: Side-Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on July 20 was a green candle that broke above a doji candle of previous week; the real body smaller than the upper shadow
  • Last week’s pivot point=2820.66, R1=2846.19, R2=2873.55; S1=2793.30, S2=2767.77; R1/R2/R3 pivot levels were breached;
  • A fourth up week in a row; fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
  • Broke above an ascending triangle but retraced back to its upper limit; 100% extension target is near 3070.00 level
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
Daily
  • A large bearish engulfing candle that engulfed a harami-doji; almost no upper shadow and small lower shadow
  • %K is below %D after making a bearish divergence
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Downtrend since July 25 2:00 PM high of 2849.50; broke below an upsloping flag at 8:00 AM on July 27
  • RSI-9 moving down from 84.26 at 2:00 PM on July 25 to 15.166 low at midnight on July 30; rising since and is just above 40
  • Below EMA10 of EMA50, which just crossed below 20-bar EMA
  • Bias: Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Broke below a support zone or lower limit of a horizontal channel near 2833.00 at 10:00 AM on Julye 27; achieved 161.8% extension target near 2810.00
  • RSI-9 rising form a low of 13.37 at 12:30 PM on July 27; approaching 65
  • Above 20-bar EMA but below 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 4:45 PM on July 27 and with up-bias since , with an up bias  since 3:00 AM
  • The band contracted during late Asian session but is expanding since 3:30 AM with price moving along the upper band
  • RSI rising from a low of 7.13 at 12:45 PM on July 25; above 40 since 2:00 AM; at 65
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D near 50 at 7:45 AM
  • Bias: Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday July 27. Most also made bearish engulfing candlestick line. Dow Jones Transportation Average made a small red harami candle and was the best performer relatively. The volume was higher for most except for DJT.

For the week, major indices closed mixed. NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 were down and rest were up. The volume was higher for the week. Four S&P sectors – Consumer Discretionary, Technology, Real Estate and Telecom – were down.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Industrials
  3. Finance
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Energy
  3. Materials
  4. Technology
  5. Utility
  6. Heath Care
  7. Real Estate
  8. Telecom

 

Morning Notes – Friday July 27, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; moving sideways to up since 6:00 PM on Wednesday in a narrow range
  • Odds are for a sideways to up day – watch for break above 2845.50 and below 2839.00 for clarity
  • Key economic data due:
    • Advanced GDP (4.1% vs. 4.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Advanced GDP Price Index (3.0% vs. 2.3% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (est. 97.1) at 10:00 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai was down
  • European markets are higher
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CHF
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • NatGas
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.965%, down from July 26 close of 2.975%;
    • 30-years is at 3.089%, down from 3.100%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.686%, up from 2.682%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.283, down from 0.293

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2835.85, 2830.36 and 2818.58
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2845.57, 2851.48 and 2867.45
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2845.50, the high of 6:30 AM and break below 2839.00, the low of 8:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2838.25 and the index closed at 2837.44 – a spread of about +0.75 points; futures closed at 2842.50 for the day; the fair value is -6.00
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +1.00; Dow by +5.00; and NASDAQ by +24.50

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Up-Side
  • 15-Min: Up-Side
  • 6-Min: Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on July 20 was a small doji candle
  • Last week’s pivot point=2802.61, R1=2815.98, R2=2830.13; S1=2788.46, S2=2775.09; R1 pivot level was breached;
  • A third up week in a row; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
  • Breaking above an ascending triangle but still within an upsloping flag; a 100% extension target would be near 3070.00 level
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
Daily
  • A doji harami candle with shaved bottom and small upper shadow
  • %K is above %D just below 90; potential to make a bearish divergence
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Moving sideways high of 2849.50 at 4:00 PM on July 25; after almost 33% retracement of the last rally from July 25 low of 2814.00
  • RSI-9 moving along 65 since 6:00 PM on July 25; below 65
  • Above 20-bar EMA; which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Moving sideways, with an up bias, since 6:00 PM on July 25
  • RSI-9 is mostly between 65 and 40 since 6:00 PM on July 25; just below 50
  • At/below 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways, with an up bias  since 10:45 PM on July 25
  • The band contracted since 9:45 PM on Thursday
  • RSI moving between 65 and 40 since 6:00 PM on July 25; near or below 40
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossing above %D just under 20
  • Bias: Up-Side

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday July 26. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite decline little bit. They also, along with Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made near harami doji with large upper shadow and almost no lower shadow. Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average and NYSE Composite followed through on the large move on Wednesday. Russell 2000 made a near morning star pattern.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Energy
  3. Materials
  4. Industrials
  5. Utility
  6. Real Estate
  7. Telecom
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Finance
  3. Technology
  4. Heath Care

 

Morning Notes – Thursday July 26, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower; moving sideways since 6:00 PM on Wednesday in a narrow range
  • Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2841.25 and below 2833.50 for clarity
  • Key economic data due:
    • Durable Goods (1.0% vs. 3.0% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Core Durable Goods (0.4% vs. 0.5% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Unemployment Claims (217K vs. 215K est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Mumbai and Seoul were up
  • European markets are mostly higher – U.K. is lower
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/INR
    • Dollar index
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • NatGas
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Coffee
    • Cocoa
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Sugar
    • Cotton
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.967%, up from July 25 close of 2.936%;
    • 30-years is at 3.095%, up from 3.064%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.673%, unchanged
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.294, up from 0.263

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2830.36, 2818.58 and 2811.12
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2851.48, 2867.45 and 2872.09
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2838.75, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2833.50, the low of 1:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2847.25 and the index closed at 2846.07 – a spread of about +1.25 points; futures closed at 2841.25 for the day; the fair value is -6.00
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is mixed – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -5.50; Dow up by +57.00; and NASDAQ down by -55.25

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend resumed
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Up-Side
  • 15-Min: Side
  • 6-Min: Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on July 20 was a small doji candle
  • Last week’s pivot point=2802.61, R1=2815.98, R2=2830.13; S1=2788.46, S2=2775.09; R1 pivot level was breached;
  • A third up week in a row; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
  • Breaking above an ascending triangle but still within an upsloping flag; a 100% extension target would be near 3070.00 level
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
Daily
  • A bullish engulfing candle with shaved bottom and almost no upper shadow
  • %K is above %D just below 90;
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Declining from a high of 2849.50 at 4:00 PM on July 25; near 2836.00 after almost 33% retracement of the last rally from July 25 low of 2814.00
  • RSI-9 declining from the high of 84.26 at 4:00 PM on July 25
  • Above 20-bar EMA; which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Moving sideways since 6:00 PM on July 25 within 2839,.50 and 2834.25, the high and low of the 6:00 PM candle
  • RSI-9 is moving around 50 since 9:00 PM
  • At 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 10:45 PM on July 25
  • The band contracted since 10:45 PM
  • RSI moving around 50 since 6:00 PM on July 25
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossing below %D just under 80
  • Bias: Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday July 25. Most are also trying to break above a multi-month resistance level, though only NASDAQ Composite made all-time high. Most also made either one-day reversal or breakout candlestick line. Russell 2000 was the lone exception. The volume was mostly lower. Only S&P 500 traded in higher volume.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Industrials
  6. Finance
  7. Technology
  8. Utility
  9. Heath Care
  10. Real Estate
  11. Telecom

 

Morning Notes – Wednesday July 25, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower; in the middle of an ascending triangle between 2822.00 and 2812.00 since 1:00 PM on July 24
  • Odds are for a sideways day – watch for break above 2822.00 and below 2812.00 for clarity
  • No key economic data due:

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Sydney and Seoul closed down
  • European markets are lower
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil (unch.)
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.947%, down from July 24 close of 2.949%;
    • 30-years is at 3.065%, down from 3.076%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.633%, unchanged
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.298, down from 0.300

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2811.12, 2804.26 and 2795.14
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2829.99, 2835.96 and 2839.26
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2821.75, the high of 6:00 AM and break below 2814.00, the low of 7:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2821.00 and the index closed at 2820.40 – a spread of about +0.50 points; futures closed at 2821.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.00
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside  – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down -5.25; Dow by -100.00; and NASDAQ by -7.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend resumed
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Up-Side
  • 15-Min: Side
  • 6-Min: Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on July 20 was a small doji candle
  • Last week’s pivot point=2802.61, R1=2815.98, R2=2830.13; S1=2788.46, S2=2775.09; R1 pivot level was breached;
  • A third up week in a row; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
  • Breaking above an ascending triangle but still within an upsloping flag; a 100% extension target would be near 3070.00 level
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
Daily
  • A doji candle that gapped up at the open with almost equal upper and lower shadow
  • %K is above %D just below 90;
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Broke above a downtrend line from a high of 2818.25 on July 18; declining from a high of 2831.25 at 10:00 AM on July 24
  • RSI-9 declining from the high of 78.48 at 8:00 AM on July 24 after making a bearish divergence
  • At 20-bar EMA; which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Forming a symmetric/ascending triangle after a spike on July 24; Break above a descending triangle achieved the 100% extension target near 2830.00; break above a triple bottom also achieved the 100% extension target near 2828.00
  • RSI-9 is declining since 10:00 AM on July 24; near 40
  • Below 50-bar EMA, which is below 20-bar EMA
  • Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 7:00 PM on July 24
  • The band contracted during Asian session; expanding since 2:30 AM; price first moved along the upper band and is moving along the lower band since 7:00 AM
  • RSI made a bearish divergence at 6:00 with a high of 66.47; now below 40
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below %D at 6:15 AM just below 80 after making a bearish divergence
  • Bias: Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Tuesday July 24. S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed higher. NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average closed lower. The indices gapped up at the open then gradually declined for most of the day before rising a bit in the last half-hour of trading. The volume was higher across the board.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Energy
  3. Materials
  4. Industrials
  5. Finance
  6. Technology
  7. Utility
  8. Heath Care
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Real Estate
  3. Telecom