Morning Notes – Tuesday July 24, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  •   S&P Futures are higher; moving up from a low of 2792.50 at 10:00 PM on Sunday;
  • Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2811.00 for change of fortune
  • No key economic data due:

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed higher
  • European markets are higher
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.959%, down from July 23 close of 2.965%;
    • 30-years is at 3.093%, down from 3.104%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.633%, unchanged
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.326, down from 0.332

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2804.26, 2795.14 and 2789.24
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2812.05, 2816.74 and 2827.25
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2819.50, the high of 11:00 PM on July 23 and break below 2811.00, the low of 3:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2808.00 and the index closed at 2806.98 – a spread of about +1.00 points; futures closed at 2812.00 for the day; the fair value is -4.00
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside  – at 7:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +6.50; Dow by +114.00; and NASDAQ by +12.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend resumed
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Side-Up
  • 15-Min: Up
  • 6-Min: Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on July 20 was a small doji candle
  • Last week’s pivot point=2802.61, R1=2815.98, R2=2830.13; S1=2788.46, S2=2775.09; R1 pivot level was breached;
  • A third up week in a row; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
  • Breaking above an ascending triangle but still within an upsloping flag; a 100% extension target would be near 3070.00 level
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
Daily
  • A spinning top green candle with small lower shadow and smaller upper shadow; a bullish engulfing candle
  • %K is crossing above %D just below 90;
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Broke above a downtrend line from a high of 2818.25 on July 18; breaking above the high
  • RSI-9 rising from a low of 32.56 at 8:00 PM on July 22 after making a bullish divergence; crossed above 75 and back below it
  • Above 20-bar EMA; which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Broke above a descending triangle; 100% extension target is near 2830.00; also broke above a triple bottom with a 100% extension target near 2828.00
  • RSI-9 is rising since 11:00 PM on July 22; crossed above 65 and now back below it
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving up 1:45 AM on July 23;
  • The band contracted during Asian session; expanding since 2:45 AM
  • RSI mostly between 40 and 65 since 00:15 AM on July 23;
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D at 7:30 AM
  • Bias: Up

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday July 23. Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down. The markets declined at the open and made the lows for the day in the first hour of trading. The major indices gradually drifted higher after 10:30 AM and closed near the high for the day. The volume was lower.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Finance
  2. Technology
  3. Heath Care
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Industrials
  6. Utility
  7. Real Estate
  8. Telecom

 

Morning Notes – Monday July 23, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are down; moved up from a low of 2792.50 at 10:00 PM on Sunday;
  • Odds are for a down-to-sideways day – watch for break above 2802.50 and break below 2797.oo for clarity
  • Key economic data due:
    • Existing Home Sales (5.38M vs. 5.46M est.) at 10:00 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong and Mumbai closed up; Tokyo, Sydney and Seoul were down
  • European markets are down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/INR
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.908%, up from July 20 close of 2.895%;
    • 30-years is at 3.047%, up from 3.031%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.604%, up from 2.595%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.304, down from 0.300

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2799.77, 2789.24 and 2871.53
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2806.90, 2809.70 and 28112.05
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2802.50, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2797.00, the low of 7:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2803.25 and the index closed at 2801.83 – a spread of about +1.50 points; futures closed at 2800.75 for the day; the fair value is +2.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside  – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -1.00; Dow by -11.00; and NASDAQ by -18.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend resumed
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Down
  • 15-Min: Down-Side
  • 6-Min: Side-Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on July 20 was a small doji candle
  • Last week’s pivot point=2802.61, R1=2815.98, R2=2830.13; S1=2788.46, S2=2775.09; R1 pivot level was breached;
  • A third up week in a row; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
  • Breaking above an ascending triangle but still within an upsloping flag; a 100% extension target would be near 3070.00 level
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
Daily
  • A small red candle with small upper shadow and smaller lower shadow
  • %K is below %D above 90;
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Drifting down since the high of 2818.25 at 2:00 PM on July 18; below a downtrend line
  • RSI-9 rising from a low of 32.56 at 8:00 PM on July 22 after making a bullish divergence
  • Below 20-bar EMA; which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Moving down in steps since 12:30 PM on July 17; forming a descending triangle; made a triple bottom near 2793.00;
  • RSI-9 is rising since Sunday night from a low near 34.00 above 50
  • At 50-bar EMA, which is above 20-bar EMA
  • Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down-to-sideways since 10:00 PM on July 19;
  • The band expanded from 7:45 PM on July 22 to 1:15 AM with price mostly moving along the lower band; narrow since 1:30 AM
  • RSI between 40 and 65 since 00:15 AM; nearing 65
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below %D at 8:30 AM after making a divergence
  • Bias: Down-Side

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday July 20. NYSE Composite closed higher. The volume was mixed. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite traded in higher volume and others in lower volume. The price range was small.

For the week, most indices closed higher. Russell 2000 was down. The volume was higher. Only two S&P sectors were down – Utility and Real Estate.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Finance
  3. Technology
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Energy
  3. Materials
  4. Industrials
  5. Utility
  6. Heath Care
  7. Real Estate
  8. Telecom

 

Morning Notes – Friday July 20, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are down; moved up from a low of 2793.00 at 6:00 AM;  resuming the downtrend at 8:00 AM
  • Odds are for a down day – watch for break above 2802.75 for change of fortune
  • No key economic data due:

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly up – Tokyo was down
  • European markets are mostly down – Switzerland is up;
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cocoa
    • NatGas
    • Cotton
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.849%, up from July 19 close of 2.847%;
    • 30-years is at 2.969%, up from 2.967%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.600%, up from 2.587%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.249, down from 0.260

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2799.77, 2789.24 and 2871.53
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 28112.05, 2816.74 and 2822.42
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2802.75, the high of 7:30 AM and break below 2793.00, the low of 6:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2806.00 and the index closed at 2804.49 – a spread of about +1.50 points; futures closed at 2805.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside  – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -4.50; Dow by -96.00; and NASDAQ up by+9.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend resumed
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Down
  • 15-Min: Down-Side
  • 6-Min: Side-Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on July 13 was a large green candle with almost no upper shadow and shaved bottom; the candle gapped up the open, which was not filled;
  • Last week’s pivot point=2791.45, R1=2814.39, R2=2827.47; S1=2778.7, S2=2755.43; R1 pivot level was breached;
  • A second up week in a row; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
  • Breaking above an ascending triangle but still within an upsloping flag; a 100% extension target would be near 3070.00 level
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
Daily
  • A small red candle with small lower shadow and smaller upper shadow
  • %K crossed below %D above 90;
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Drifting down since the high of 2818.25 at 2:00 PM; near the support level around 2789.75, which was previous swing low
  • RSI-9 declining from 75 at 6:00 PM on July 17; bouncing off he low of 27.41 at 8:00 PM on July 19; just above 40
  • Below 20-bar EMA; below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Moving down in steps since 12:30 PM on July 17; made a double bottom at 2793.50; a break above 2806.00 will complete the pattern
  • RSI-9 is mostly below 50 since 12:00 AM on July 19; rising from a low 34.1 after making a bullish divergence
  • Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Down
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving down since 6:30 PM on July 17; moving sideways since 2:00 AM
  • The band expanded at 9:00 PM on July 19 with price moving along the lower band; the narrowed, relatively, from 2:30 AM to 6:00 AM with price moving along the upper band; expanding since 6:00 AM with moving up to the md-level
  • RSI made a bullish divergence at 6:15 AM after making a low of 29.91 and is moving up; near 50
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D at 6:30 AM
  • Bias: Down-Side

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday July 19. Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average closed higher. The volume was higher for most. DJT traded in lower.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Energy
  3. Materials
  4. Utility
  5. Real Estate
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Industrials
  3. Finance
  4. Technology
  5. Heath Care
  6. Telecom

 

Morning Notes – Thursday July 19, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are down; drifting down since 10:30 PM on July 18
  • Odds are for a down day – watch for break above 2812.75 for change of fortune
  • Key economic data due:
    • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (25.7 vs. 21.6 est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Unemployment Claims (207K vs. 220K est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly down – Sydney was up
  • European markets are mostly down – U.K. and Switzerland are up;
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • NatGas
    • Cocoa
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.885%, up from July 18 close of 2.875%;
    • 30-years is at 3.001%, up from 2.989%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.628%, up from 2.607%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.257, down from 0.268

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2811.54, 2808.24 and 2789.24
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2816.74, 2822.42 and 2835.96
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2810.00, the high of 7:00 AM and break below 2806.25, the low of 8:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2816.75 and the index closed at 2815.62 – a spread of about +1.25 points; futures closed at 2816.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside  – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -9.50; Dow by -103.00; and NASDAQ by -30.25

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend resumed
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Side-Down
  • 15-Min: Side-Down
  • 6-Min: Down

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on July 13 was a large green candle with almost no upper shadow and shaved bottom; the candle gapped up the open, which was not filled;
  • Last week’s pivot point=2791.45, R1=2814.39, R2=2827.47; S1=2778.7, S2=2755.43; R1 pivot level was breached;
  • A second up week in a row; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
  • Breaking above an ascending triangle but still within an upsloping flag; a 100% extension target would be near 3070.00 level
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
Daily
  • A small green candle with almost no upper shadow and small lower shadow
  • %K is above %D above 90;
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Drifting down since the high of 2818.25 at 2:00 PM;
  • Bounced up from the EMA50 at 10:00 AM on July 17; broke above a resistance level; moving sideways since 12:00 PM on July 17
  • RSI-9 declining from 75 at 6:00 PM on July 17; just below 40
  • Below 20-bar EMA; above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Moving sideways-to-down since 12:30 PM on July 17; broke above down-sloping flag at 10:00 AM on July 17; 61.8% Fibonacci Extension near 2816.50 is achieved; the 100% Fibonacci Extension target is near 2833.00
  • A double top pattern – high of 2818.25 and low 2815.75; all Fibonacci extension targets have been achieved
  • Broken above a horizontal channel – between 2747.50 and 2698.50 – the 100% extension target near 2796.50 is achieved and the 161.8% extension target is near 2826.75
  • RSI-9 is drifting down from a high of 76.4 at 12:00 PM on July 17; near 30
  • Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Side-Down
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways to down 6:30 PM on July 17
  • The band narrowed, relatively, from 4:00 PM to 11:15 PM on July 18; expanding since with price moving along the lower band
  • RSI is trending down since 12:15 PM on July 17 from a high of 82.26; below 40
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crisscrossing %D near 20
  • Bias: Side-Down

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday July 18. NASDAQ Composite was down. Day’s price-range was small except for Dow Jones Transportation Average. The volume was mixed. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in higher volume and others in lower volume.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Energy
  2. Industrials
  3. Finance
  4. Heath Care
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Materials
  4. Technology
  5. Utility
  6. Real Estate
  7. Telecom

 

Morning Notes – Wednesday July 18, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are down; drifting down since 8:00 PM on July 17
  • Odds are for a sideways to up day – watch for break above 2813.75 and below 2807.75 for clarity
  • Key economic data due:
    • Building Permits (1.27M vs. 1.33M est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Housing Starts (1.17M vs. 1.32M est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hing Kong, Mumbai and Seoul closed down; Tokyo and Sydney were up
  • European markets are mixed – Germany, U.K., France, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are up; Spain and Italy are down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • NatGas
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.848%, down from July 17 close of 2.864%;
    • 30-years is at 2.959%, down from 2.971%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.607%, down from 2.615%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.241, down from 0.249

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2808.24, 2789.24 and 2781.53
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2814.06, 2822.42 and 2835.96
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2813.75, the high of 5:30 AM and break below 2807.75, the low of 8:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2812.00 and the index closed at 2809.55 – a spread of about +2.50 points; futures closed at 2811.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside  – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -2.75; Dow by -12.00; and NASDAQ by -14.25

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend resumed
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Up-Side
  • 15-Min: Side-Down
  • 6-Min: Side-Down

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on July 13 was a large green candle with almost no upper shadow and shaved bottom; the candle gapped up the open, which was not filled;
  • Last week’s pivot point=2791.45, R1=2814.39, R2=2827.47; S1=2778.7, S2=2755.43; R1 pivot level was breached;
  • A second up week in a row; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
  • Breaking above an ascending triangle but still within an upsloping flag; a 100% extension target would be near 3070.00 level
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
Daily
  • A large bullish engulfing candle breaking above a resistance level created by the gap-down open on February 2, 2018
  • %K trying to cross above %D above 90;
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend resumed
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Bounced up from the EMA50 at 10:00 AM on July 17; broke above a resistance level; moving sideways since 12:00 PM on July 17
  • RSI-9 declining from 75 at 6:00 PM on July 17; just below 65
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Moving sideways since 12:30 PM on July 17; broke above down-sloping flag at 10:00 AM on July 17; 61.8% Fibonacci Extension near 2816.50 is achieved; the 100% Fibonacci Extension target is near 2833.00
  • Broken above a horizontal channel – between 2747.50 and 2698.50 – the 100% extension target near 2796.50 is achieved and the 161.8% extension target is near 2826.75
  • RSI-9 is drifting down from a high of 76.4 at 12:00 PM on July 17; near 50
  • At 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways to down 6:30 PM on July 17
  • The band narrowed, relatively, during early Asian session; expanding since 5:45 AM with price moving along the lower band
  • RSI is trending down since 12:15 PM on July 17 from a high of 82.26; below 40
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D from 0 at 7:30 AM; making a bullish divergence
  • Bias: Side-Down

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday July 17. Most indices made bullish engulfing candlestick line. The volume was mixed. Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 traded in lower volume and others in higher volume.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Industrials
  4. Materials
  5. Finance
  6. Technology
  7. Heath Care
  8. Telecom
  1. Energy
  2. Utility
  3. Real Estate