Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are lower; trending down since 11:00 AM on June 29; moving sideways since 2:00 AM with an upper bound near 2710.00- Odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for break above 2710.00 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (est. 58.2 ) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed down – Hong Kong was closed
- European markets are lower
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- USD/INR
|
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
|
- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Cocoa
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.846%, down from June 29 close of 2.849%;
- 30-years is at 2.979%, down from 2.983%
- 2-years yield is at 2.520%, up from 2.516%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.326, down from 0.333
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2698.91, 2691.99 and 2676.81
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2732.31, 2743.26 and 2764.04
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2710.00, the high of 4:30 AM and break below 2698.50, the low of 3:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2721.00 and the index closed at 2718.37 – a spread of about +2.50 points; futures closed at 2721.50 for the day; the fair value is -0.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -18.00; Dow by -179.00; and NASDAQ by -60.50
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend under pressure
- 120-Min: Down-Side
- 30-Min: Side-Down
- 15-Min: Down-Side
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on June 29 was a red candle with almost no upper shadow and longer lower shadow
- Last week’s pivot point=2718.82, R1=2745.65, R2=2772.92; S1=2691.54, S2=2664.72; S1/S2/S3 pivot levels were breached;
- A down week; first in last five weeks and fourth in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend resumed
|
Daily
|
- An almost shooting star candle, which did not come after a rally; almost no lower shadow; finding resistance at 20-day EMA
- %K crossed above %D from below 20
- Below 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Bounce from the low near 2693.25 at 8:00 AM on June 28 faltered near a previous resistance
- Declining since 10:00 AM on June 13 in steps; sequence of lower highs and lower lows; a break above 2748.00 will break this sequence
- RSI-9 trending down since 2:00 AM on June 29; below 40 since 10:00 PM on July 1
- %K crossed above %D at 2:00 AM from below 30
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Down-Side
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Near the lower limit of a horizontal trading range in effect since 9:30 AM on June 25
- RSI-9 mostly moving around 40 since 3:30 PM on June 29; mostly below it
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Side-Down
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is trending down since 3:30 PM on June 29
- The band narrowed beginning 6:15 AM
- RSI is below 50 since 2:45 PM on June 29; stayed below 40 during Asian session
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crisscrossed %D below 20 in early European session; rising above 80
- Bias: Down-Side
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Friday June 29, however, the indices lost major portion of their early session gains by the close. The market gapped up at the open and then started to decline by 11:00 AM and picked up steam during the last hour of trading. The primary culprit was the imminent or potential global trade-war. The volume was higher except for Russell 2000.
For the week, major U.S. indices declined. The volume was higher for most except for Dow Jones Industrial Average. Only three S&P 500 sectors, Energy, Utilities and Real Estate, were up for the week.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance (Unch.)
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
- Consumer Staples
- Technology
|
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Friday June 29, however, the indices lost major portion of their early session gains by the close. The market gapped up at the open and then started to decline by 11:00 AM and picked up steam during the last hour of trading. The primary culprit was the imminent or potential global trade-war. The volume was higher except for Russell 2000.
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