Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are lower; moving sideways since 6:00 PM on Wednesday in a narrow range- Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2841.25 and below 2833.50 for clarity
- Key economic data due:
- Durable Goods (1.0% vs. 3.0% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Core Durable Goods (0.4% vs. 0.5% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Claims (217K vs. 215K est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Mumbai and Seoul were up
- European markets are mostly higher – U.K. is lower
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
|
|
- Dollar index
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- NatGas
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Coffee
- Cocoa
|
- Crude Oil
- Gold
- Silver
- Sugar
- Cotton
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.967%, up from July 25 close of 2.936%;
- 30-years is at 3.095%, up from 3.064%
- 2-years yield is at 2.673%, unchanged
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.294, up from 0.263
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2830.36, 2818.58 and 2811.12
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2851.48, 2867.45 and 2872.09
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2838.75, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2833.50, the low of 1:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2847.25 and the index closed at 2846.07 – a spread of about +1.25 points; futures closed at 2841.25 for the day; the fair value is -6.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is mixed – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -5.50; Dow up by +57.00; and NASDAQ down by -55.25
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend resumed
- 120-Min: Up
- 30-Min: Up-Side
- 15-Min: Side
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on July 20 was a small doji candle
- Last week’s pivot point=2802.61, R1=2815.98, R2=2830.13; S1=2788.46, S2=2775.09; R1 pivot level was breached;
- A third up week in a row; third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
- Breaking above an ascending triangle but still within an upsloping flag; a 100% extension target would be near 3070.00 level
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend resumed
|
Daily
|
- A bullish engulfing candle with shaved bottom and almost no upper shadow
- %K is above %D just below 90;
- Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend resumed
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Declining from a high of 2849.50 at 4:00 PM on July 25; near 2836.00 after almost 33% retracement of the last rally from July 25 low of 2814.00
- RSI-9 declining from the high of 84.26 at 4:00 PM on July 25
- Above 20-bar EMA; which is above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Up
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Moving sideways since 6:00 PM on July 25 within 2839,.50 and 2834.25, the high and low of the 6:00 PM candle
- RSI-9 is moving around 50 since 9:00 PM
- At 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Up-Side
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 10:45 PM on July 25
- The band contracted since 10:45 PM
- RSI moving around 50 since 6:00 PM on July 25
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossing below %D just under 80
- Bias: Side
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday July 25. Most are also trying to break above a multi-month resistance level, though only NASDAQ Composite made all-time high. Most also made either one-day reversal or breakout candlestick line. Russell 2000 was the lone exception. The volume was mostly lower. Only S&P 500 traded in higher volume.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
|
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday July 25. Most are also trying to break above a multi-month resistance level, though only NASDAQ Composite made all-time high. Most also made either one-day reversal or breakout candlestick line. Russell 2000 was the lone exception. The volume was mostly lower. Only S&P 500 traded in higher volume.
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