Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are unchanged to down; moving up from a low of 2806.50 since 10:30 PM on Sunday- Odds are for a sideways to up day, with high volatility – watch for break above 2821.25 and below 2812.50 for clarity
- No key economic data due:
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Mumbai was up
- European markets are mostly lower – U.K. and Switzerland are up
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
|
- Dollar index
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
- USD/INR
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- Silver
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Cocoa
|
- NatGas
- Gold
- Copper
- Platinum
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.984%, up from July 27 close of 2.960%;
- 30-years is at 3.112%, up from 3.088%
- 2-years yield is at 2.678%, up from 2.674%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.306, up from 0.286
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2808.34, 2795.14 and 2789.24
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2820.55, 2825.33 and 2843.17
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2821.25, the high of 3:30 PM on July 27 and break below 2812.50, the low of 4:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2820.00 and the index closed at 2818.82 – a spread of about +0.75 points; futures closed at 2817.50 for the day; the fair value is +0.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is little changed – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +0.75; Dow up by +37.00; and NASDAQ down by -0.50
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend
- 120-Min: Side
- 30-Min: Down-Side
- 15-Min: Side
- 6-Min: Side-Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on July 20 was a green candle that broke above a doji candle of previous week; the real body smaller than the upper shadow
- Last week’s pivot point=2820.66, R1=2846.19, R2=2873.55; S1=2793.30, S2=2767.77; R1/R2/R3 pivot levels were breached;
- A fourth up week in a row; fourth in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
- Broke above an ascending triangle but retraced back to its upper limit; 100% extension target is near 3070.00 level
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend resumed
|
Daily
|
- A large bearish engulfing candle that engulfed a harami-doji; almost no upper shadow and small lower shadow
- %K is below %D after making a bearish divergence
- Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Downtrend since July 25 2:00 PM high of 2849.50; broke below an upsloping flag at 8:00 AM on July 27
- RSI-9 moving down from 84.26 at 2:00 PM on July 25 to 15.166 low at midnight on July 30; rising since and is just above 40
- Below EMA10 of EMA50, which just crossed below 20-bar EMA
- Bias: Side
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Broke below a support zone or lower limit of a horizontal channel near 2833.00 at 10:00 AM on Julye 27; achieved 161.8% extension target near 2810.00
- RSI-9 rising form a low of 13.37 at 12:30 PM on July 27; approaching 65
- Above 20-bar EMA but below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Down-Side
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 4:45 PM on July 27 and with up-bias since , with an up bias since 3:00 AM
- The band contracted during late Asian session but is expanding since 3:30 AM with price moving along the upper band
- RSI rising from a low of 7.13 at 12:45 PM on July 25; above 40 since 2:00 AM; at 65
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D near 50 at 7:45 AM
- Bias: Side
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday July 27. Most also made bearish engulfing candlestick line. Dow Jones Transportation Average made a small red harami candle and was the best performer relatively. The volume was higher for most except for DJT.
For the week, major indices closed mixed. NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 were down and rest were up. The volume was higher for the week. Four S&P sectors – Consumer Discretionary, Technology, Real Estate and Telecom – were down.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Staples
- Industrials
- Finance
|
- Consumer Discretionary
- Energy
- Materials
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday July 27. Most also made bearish engulfing candlestick line. Dow Jones Transportation Average made a small red harami candle and was the best performer relatively. The volume was higher for most except for DJT.
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