Morning Notes – Thursday June 7, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; moving mostly sideways since 4:45 Am after declining from 3:40 AM high of 2779.50
  • Odds are for a sideways to up day – watch for break below 2770.25 and break above 2776.75 for clarity
  • Key economic data due:
    • Unemployment Claims (22k vs. 223K est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were up
  • European markets are mostly up – Italy is down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/INR
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Cotton
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cocoa
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.975% on June 6, up from June 5 close of 2.919%;
    • 30-years is at 3.130%, up from 3.075%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.537%, up from 2.529%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.446, up from 0.423

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2758.62, 2748.79 and 2739.51
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2783.27, 2801.90 and 2808.92
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2776.75, the high of 7:00 AM and break below 2772.25, the low of 6:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2772.25 and the index closed at 2772.35 – a spread of about +0.00 points; futures closed at 2772.25 for the day; the fair value is -0.00
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is mixed  – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +2.75; Dow up by +70.00; and NASDAQ down by -1.75

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend resumed
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Up
  • 15-Min: Up
  • 6-Min: Up-Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on June 1 was a bullish engulfing
  • Last week’s pivot point=2716.12, R1=2755.43, R2=2776.24; S1=2695.31, S2=2656.00; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
  • An up week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A large green candle that gapped up at the open and the gap was not filled; no upper shadow and small lower shadow; next meaningful resistance at 2801.90
  • Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend resumes
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Break above a horizontal channel continues; the 100% extension target is near 2782.00 and 161.8% extension target is near 2807.00
  • RSI-9 staying above 65 since 12:00 PM on June 6
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Above an uptrend line since 3:00 PM on May 29; moving higher in an upsloping channel
  • RSI-9 is mostly above 40 since 3:30 PM on May 29; made a near double top near 80 and slight bearish divergence; dropped from a high of 79.98 at 3:00 AM to near 50
  • At/above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Up
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways with an up bias since 9:45 PM on June 6
  • The band contracted for most of Asian session; expanding since 3:00 AM; the price first moved along upper band is moving along lower band since 5:15 AM
  • RSI dropped from above 65 at 3:45 AM to below 50; still staying above 40
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below %D at 7:15 AM from above 80
  • Bias: Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday June 6. The market gapped up at the open and the gap was not filled. The volume was higher than that on Tuesday.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Industrials
  6. Finance
  7. Technology
  8. Heath Care
  9. Real Estate
  10. Telecom
  1. Utility
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