Morning Notes – Wednesday June 6, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; moving mostly sideways since midnight;
  • Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2753.75 for change of fortune
  • No key economic data due:

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were up – Seoul was closed
  • European markets are mostly up – Italy is down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CAD
    • USD/INR
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • NatGas
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Coffee
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.919% on June 5, down from June 4 close of 2.937%;
    • 30-years is at 3.075%, down from 3.084%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.516%, up from 2.452%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.423, down from 0.485

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2739.51, 2728.74 and 2718.70
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2761.85, 2777.11 and 2801.90
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2758.00, the high of 2:30 AM and break below 2753.75, the low of 3:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2749.50 and the index closed at 2748.80 – a spread of about +0.75 points; futures closed at 2751.50 for the day; the fair value is -2.00
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside  – at 7:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +5.50; Dow by +120.00; and NASDAQ by +7.50

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend resumed
  • 120-Min: Side-Up
  • 30-Min: Up
  • 15-Min: Up
  • 6-Min: Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on June 1 was a bullish engulfing
  • Last week’s pivot point=2716.12, R1=2755.43, R2=2776.24; S1=2695.31, S2=2656.00; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
  • An up week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A small green spinning top candle with a real body just above the real body of previous day
  • Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend resumes
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Continues the break above the upper limit of a horizontal channel that it broke below on May 29; nearing the upper limit of a long term resistance zone between 2745.00 and 2765.00
  • Higher highs and higher lows since 2:00 PM on May 29
  • RSI-9 dropped to just below 50 after staying above 65 for few days at 10:00 AM on June 5; above 65
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Above an uptrend line since 3:00 PM on May 29; moving higher in an upsloping channel
  • RSI-9 is mostly above 40 since 3:30 PM on May 29; dropped to 40 at 11:00 AM on June 5 from above 65; bounced up above 65 midnight, dropped below it and again is above it
  • Above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Up
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is drifting up since 3:45 PM on June 5
  • The band narrowing slightly since 4:30 AM
  • RSI mostly between 40 and 65 since 4:30 PM on May 31 bouncing off 50 at 4:45 AM
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D at 4:00 AM from below 20 and made slight bullish divergence; above 70
  • Bias: Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Tuesday June 5. Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average and NYSE Composite declined. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000 and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index advanced. The volume was mixed too. It was lower for DJIA, DJT and Russell 2000 but higher for S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite. The indices decline in the early session and then mostly turned around mid-day.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Materials
  3. Industrials
  4. Technology
  5. Telecom
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Energy
  3. Finance
  4. Utility
  5. Heath Care
  6. Real Estate
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