Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are lower;- Odds are for a volatile day – watch for break above 2629.00 and below 2616.75 for clarity
- Key economic data due
- Non-Farm Employment Change (164K vs. 190K est.) at 8:30 AM
- Average Hourly Earnings (0.1% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Rate (3.9% vs. 4.0% est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were down – Tokyo was closed
- European markets are mostly higher – France is lower
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
- USD/CAD
- USD/INR
|
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- Gold
- Silver
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Coffee (unch.)
|
- NatGas (unch.)
- Copper
- Platinum
- Cotton
- Cocoa
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.922%, down from May 3 close of 2.946%;
- 30-years is at 3.100%, down from 3.121%
- 2-years yield is at 2.481%, up from 2.477%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.441, down from 0.469
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2621.96, 2594.62 and 2586.27
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2637.14, 2660.87 and 2665.91
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2629.00, the high of 8:30 AM and break below 2616.75, the low of 8:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2627.50 and the index closed at 2629.67 – a spread of about -2.50 points; futures closed at 2627.50 for the day; the fair value is +5.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -9.50; Dow by -101.00; and NASDAQ by -33.25
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Down
- 30-Min: Down-Side
- 15-Min: Down
- 6-Min: Side-Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on April 27 was a doji with very small upper shadow and very long lower shadow
- Last week’s pivot point=2655.38, R1=2698.08, R2=2726.26; S1=2627.20, S2=2584.50; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
- A down week; second in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
- A symmetrical triangle pattern is emerging; price in the middle of the pattern
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- An almost Dragonfly Doji candlestick line with very small upper shadow and long lower shadow; made a low of 2594.62, near the 20-day low of 2586.27 made on April 6
- Broke below a symmetrical triangle that has been in formation since the all time high on January 26
- Below 20-day EMA, which is below 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Bounce from the low of 2591.25 on Amy 22636.25, at the downtrend line from April 18 high; price declining around the downtrend line
- RSI-9 is mostly below 50 since 8:00 AM on April 30
- At/below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Down
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Breaking bellow a horizontal trading range that was in effect since 1:00 PM on May 3
- RSI moving around 50 with down bias; hasn’t broken above 65 for a while but broke below 40 many times
- At/below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Down
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is mostly moving sideways from 7:30 PM to 8:15 AM following an exploded band during the NYSE session
- The band was narrow from 7:30 PM to 8:15 AM; expanding to the downside
- RSI fallen below 25 from just above 50 at 4:00 AM; mostly below 65 since 5:00 AM on May 2
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K below 20
- Bias: Down
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices mostly declined on Thursday May 3 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume.
Market declined at the open and reached multi-days low before turning around at 10:30 AM and then mostly moved higher and closing near the highs for the day.
| Up |
Down |
- Materials
- Industrials
- Technology
|
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Finance
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
Major U.S. indices mostly declined on Thursday May 3 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume.
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