Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are lower; moved sharply lower beginning 7:00 AM- Just above a critical support level of 2611.00
- Odds are for a sideways to down move – watch for break above 2624.50 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due
- Prelim Nonfarm Productivity (0.7% vs. 0.9% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Prelim Unit Labor Cost (2.7% vs. 3.1% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Claims (211K vs. 225K est.) at 8:30 AM
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (est. 58.1) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mostly down – Shanghai and Sydney were up; Tokyo was closed
- European markets are lower
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
|
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
- USD/INR
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Cocoa
|
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield closed at 2.964% on May 2, up from May 1 close of 2.976%;
- 30-years is at 3.135%, up from 3.137%
- 2-years yield is at 2.472%, down from 2.508%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.476, up from 0.468
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2625.41, 2621.37 and 2612.67
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2642.27, 2660.09 and 2665.91
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2624.25, the low at 4:45 PM on May2 and break below 2617.00, the low of 8:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2633.25 and the index closed at 2635.67 – a spread of about -2.50 points; futures closed at 2627.50 for the day; the fair value is +5.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -7.50; Dow by -103.00; and NASDAQ by -24.75
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Down
- 30-Min: Down
- 15-Min: Down
- 6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on April 27 was a doji with very small upper shadow and very long lower shadow
- Last week’s pivot point=2655.38, R1=2698.08, R2=2726.26; S1=2627.20, S2=2584.50; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
- A down week; second in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
- A symmetrical triangle pattern is emerging; price in the middle of the pattern
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A Bearish Engulfing candle reaching the lower bound of a symmetrical triangle
- Below 20-day EMA, which is below 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Bounce from the low of 2611.25 at 8:00 AM on April 25 faltered at 2682.25 on April 30 and price went down to 2624.25 at 4:00 PM; that around 8:00 AM
- Price declining around the downtrend line from the April 18 high
- RSI-9 is mostly below 50 since 8:00 AM on April 30
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Down
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Broke below a horizontal channel at 3:00 PM on May 2; reached near the 100% extension target; bouncing after testing the low of 223.25 reached at 1:00 PM on May 1
- RSI rose from a low of 27.21 at 4:00 PM on May 2 to 53.12 at 4:30 AM and then made a divergence at 6:00; now back below 30;
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Down
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is mostly moving sideways from 9:30 PM to 7:00 AM following a down move on May 2;
- The band was narrow from 9:30 PM to 7:00 AM; expanding to the downside
- RSI fallen below 25 from just above 65 at 5:00 AM;
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K turned down from just above 50 and crossed below %D; near 10
- Bias: Down
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices mostly declined on Wednesday May 2 in mostly higher volume. Russell 2000 advanced in lower volume.
Most indices made either a Bearish Engulfing or a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick line.
| Up |
Down |
- Energy
- Telecom
|
- Consumer Staples
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Utility
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
|
Major U.S. indices mostly declined on Wednesday May 2 in mostly higher volume. Russell 2000 advanced in lower volume.
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