Directional Bias for the Day:
S&P Futures are lower but have been bouncing off a low of 5769.25 at 8:30 AM.- Odds are for a down day with increased volatility and a good chance of an up move from the pre-open lows. The critical resistance levels are 5797.75, 5813.50, and 5830.75.
- The notable economic data due during the day:
- Challenger Job Cuts (103.2%; prev. -39.5%) at 7:30 AM.
- ECB Main Refinancing Rate (2.65% vs. 2.65% est.; prev. 2,.90%) at 8:15 AM.
- ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 8:15 AM.
- Unemployment Claims (221K vs. 234K est.; prev. 242K) at 8:30 AM.
- Revised Nonfarm Productivity (1.5% vs. 1.2% est.; prev. 1.2%) at 8:30 AM.
- Revised Unit Labor Costs (2.2% vs. 3.0% est.; prev. 3.0%) at 8:30 AM.
- Trade Balance (0131.4B vs. -128.3B est.; prev. -98.4B) at 8:30 AM.
- ECB Press Conference at 8:45 AM.
- Final Wholesale Inventories (0.7% est.; prev. 0.7%) at 10:00 AM.
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5741.35, 5732.59, and 5708.92.
- Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5791.67, 5826.52, and 5860.59.
- The key levels for E-mini futures are 5797.75, the high at 7:00 AM, and 5750.75, the low at 11:45 AM on Wednesday.
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 5850.75, and the index closed at 5842.63 – a spread of about +8.00 points; the futures closed at 5851.25; the fair value is -0.50.
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -66.00, Dow by -394 and NASDAQ by -291.50.
Markets Around the World
- Markets in the East closed mainly higher–Sydney was down.
- European markets are mainly lower–Germany is higher.
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
| Up | Down |
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are mixed.
- Precious metals are mixed.
- Industrial metals are mainly lower.
- Soft commodities are lower.
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 4.281, down -25.7 basis points from two weeks ago.
- The 30-year is at 4.575%, down -20.0 basis points.
- The 2-year yield is at 4.013%, down -26.1 basis points.
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.243, up from 0.242.
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.291, up from 0.221.
- VIX
- At 23.59 @ 8:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
- Recent high = 28.32 on December 18, 2024; low = 17.67 on February 27; Sentiment: Risk-Off
The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:
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Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday, March 5 in lower volume. The major indices opened flat and then decline a little in the morning trade before turning around and trading higher for the rest of the day.
The dollar index closed down; the energy futures closed mixed; the precious metals closed up; the industrials metals closed mainly higher; the soft commodities mainly closed higher. The US Treasuries yields advanced, and the bonds declined. All but two S&P sectors–Energy and Utilities–closed up.
From Briefing.com
The stock market logged gains across the board. The S&P 500 jumped 1.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average registered a 1.1% gain, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.5%.
[…]US Treasuries also settled with losses, leading the 10-yr yield to settled six basis points higher at 4.27%.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.1% YTD
- S&P 500: -0.7% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: -3.4% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite: -3.9%
- Russell 2000: -5.8% YTD
Reviewing today’s economic data:
- Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index 20.4%; Prior -1.2%
- February ADP Employment Change 77K (Briefing.com consensus 145K); Prior was revised to 186K from 183K
- February S&P Global US Services PMI – Final 51.0; Prior 49.7
- February ISM Services 53.5% (Briefing.com consensus 53.0%); Prior 52.8%
- January Factory Orders 1.7% (Briefing.com consensus 1.3%); Prior was revised to -0.6% from -0.9%
