Sell in May and Go Away is a popular stock market adage referring to its historical underperformance between May and October. However, during this period, too, the market is known to stage a rally that the Stock Trader’s Almanac calls the “summer rally,” albeit a short one and the weakest of all four seasons, within…
Ending the 2023 With A Bang By the end of 2022, the year-over-year change in the Personal Consumption Expenditure index was 5.9 percent and the Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge which excluded food and energy, inflated by 4.4 percent. The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, and the real GDP growth was 2.6 percent.…
Ahead of the FOMC’s September 20, 2023 meeting, rate decisions, and subsequent press conference, various market indices are at critical junctures. The market is betting heavily on the Fed holding the rate at 5.50%, so the indecision shown by the indices is due to uncertainty about the larger picture. It is possible that the FOMC’s…
The S&P 500 is trending up since bottoming on October 13, 2022. It has cleared a few critical resistance levels and broken above bullish chart patterns since then. The probability is high that the upswing will go on for some time. Monthly Timeframe Fig 1. tells a good story of the S&P 500. The logarithmic…
“Bank on the trends, and don’t worry about the tremors. Keep your mind on long-term cycles and ignore the sporadic ups and downs …” — J. Paul Getty (as said to him by a successful financier)[1]J. Paul Getty, How To Be Rich Secular markets or secular cycles in an asset class are driven by strong…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. Moving sideways since 4:00 PM on Wednesday within a narrow range. Odds are for a sideways day. Watch for a break above 5577.50 or a break below 5634.00 for clarity. The economic data due during the day: PPI m/m (0.2% vs. 0.1% est.;…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM. Moving up since the CPI report release at 8:30 AM. Up more than 30 points. Odds are for an up day with elevated volatility. Watch for a break below 5469.25 for a change of sentiments. The economic data due during the day: CPI…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 8:30 AM. Moving up from 5462.50 since 5:15 AM after moving sideways during the Asian session. Up more than 30 points. Odds are for an up day with elevated volatility. Watch for a break below 5462.50 for a change of sentiments. The economic data due…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. Moving up since 4:30 PM on Friday. Up more than 60 points after declining almost 240 points last week. Odds are for an up day with elevated volatility. Watch for a break below 5438.50 for a change of sentiments. The economic data due…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower at 8:15 AM. Makine a rounding saucer pattern around 5480.00 level since 3:15 AM. Awaiting the Non-Farm Payroll report due at 8:30 AM. The odds are for a volatile day. Watch for a break above 5511.00 or a break below 5466.50. The economic data due during the…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower at 8:45 AM. Near the lower bound of a trading range lasting since mid-day yesterday. The odds are for a sideways to a down day. Watch for a break above 5540.00 for a change in sentiments. The economic data due during the day: ADP Non-Farm Employment…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM. Making a rounding bottom since 4:00 PM on Tuesday between 5547.00 and 5506.00. The odds are for a down day with a good chance of a sideways to up move from the pre-open levels around 5520.00. Watch for a break above 5547.25 for a…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM. Breaking below a flat pennant after declining more than 30 points during the Asian session – if the break occurs, then the 61.8% extension target would be around 5615.00, the 100% extension target around 5602.00, and the 161.8% extension target around 5580.00. The…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM – moving sideways since 3:20 AA around 5625.00 The odds are for a sideways day – watch for a break above 5639.75 or a break below 5616.75 for clarity. The economic data due during the day: Core PCE (0.2% vs. 0.2% est.; prev.…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM – moving up since 6:15 PM on Wednesday – up more than 45 points The odds are for an up day with a good chance of a sideways to down move from the pre-open level of 5625.00 – watch for a break above…
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