Directional Bias for the Day:
S&P Futures are a little higher. They have been declining since 4:45 AM–down more than 50 points from the high of 5845.00. Broke below a trading range at 6:45 AM–the 61.8% extension target around 5788.00 is achieved. The 100% extension target is around 5776.00, and the 161.8% extension target is around 5756.00- Odds are for a down day with increased volatility. The critical resistance levels are 5816.50, 5834.50, and 5844.25.
- The notable economic data due during the day:
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (77K vs. 141K est.; prev. 186K) at 8:15 AM.
- Final Services PMI (49.7 est.; prev. 49.7) at 9:45 AM.
- Factory Orders (1.7% est.; prev. -0.9%) at 10:00 AM.
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5759.35, 5732.59, and 5708.92.
- Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5814.95, 5837.66, and 5864.70.
- The key levels for E-mini futures are 5816.50, the high at 7:00 AM, and 5768.25, the low at 3:45 PM on Tuesday.
Pre-Open
- On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 5790.75, and the index closed at 5778.15 – a spread of about +12.75 points; the futures closed at 5789.50; the fair value is +1.25.
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:30 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +3.25, Dow by +1 and NASDAQ by +48.75.
Markets Around the World
- Markets in the East closed mainly higher–Sydney was down.
- European markets are higher.
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
| Up | Down |
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are mixed.
- Precious metals are lower.
- Industrial metals are mainly lower.
- Soft commodities are lower.
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 4.248, down -30.8 basis points from two weeks ago.
- The 30-year is at 4.539%, down -23.8 basis points.
- The 2-year yield is at 4.005%, down -30.9 basis points.
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.243, up from 0.242.
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.291, up from 0.221.
- VIX
- At 23.73 @ 7:30 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
- Recent high = 28.32 on December 18, 2024; low = 17.67 on February 27; Sentiment: Risk-On
The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:
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Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Tuesday, March 4 higher volume. The major indices opened lower and traded down until 11:00 AM and then staged a rally that took them to the green territory before declining sharply in the last hour of trading.
The dollar index closed down; the energy futures closed mixed; the precious metals closed up; the industrials metals closed mixed; the soft commodities mainly closed down. The US Treasuries yields advanced, and the bonds declined. All S&P sectors closed down.
From Briefing.com
The trade war heated up after 25% tariffs for Canada and Mexico went into effect today and tariffs on China increased by 10% to 20%, and the countries announced subsequent retaliatory measures.
[…]
The Dow Jones Industrial Average settled 1.6% lower; the S&P 500 dropped 1.2%; and the Nasdaq Composite registered a 0.4% decline. There was some mid-day improvement, however, that coincided with the S&P 500 approaching its 200-day moving average (5,725).
[…]Ultimately, ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors logged declines. The heavily-weighted financial sector, which houses 14.7% of the S&P 500 in terms of market capitalization, sank 3.5%. Six other sectors declined more than 1.0%.
[…]- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.1% YTD
- S&P 500: -1.8% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: -4.6% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite: -5.3%
- Russell 2000: -6.8% YTD
