Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:30 AM; drifting sideways to up since  6:00 PM; breaking above the range between 4096.00 and 4072.0 following 8:30 AM economic reports
• The odds are for an up-to-sideways day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 4072.00 for clarity
• The key economic data report is due during the day:
  • Unemployment Claims ( 225K vs. 234K est.; prev. 241K) at 8:30 AM
  • Core PCE Price Index ( 0.2% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.5%) at 8:30 AM
  • Personal Income ( 0.7% vs. 0.4% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM
  • Personal Spending ( 0.8% vs. 0.8% est.; prev. 0.6%) at 8:30 AM
  • Final Manufacturing PMI ( 47.6 est.; prev. 47.6) at 9:45 AM
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI ( 49.7 est.; prev. 50.2) at 10:00 AM
  • Construction Spending ( -0.2% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 10:00 AM
  • ISM Manufacturing Prices ( 45.9 est.; prev. 46.6 ) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure 120-Min: Side-Up

30-Min: Up-Side 15-Min: Up-Side 6-Min:  Side-Down

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4056.92, 4034.10, and 4023.32
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4087.58, 4097.28, and 4112.46
• The key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4096.00, the high at 6:00 PM, and a break below 4072.00, the low of 4:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2022) closed at 4082.25, and the index closed at 4080.11 – a spread of about +2.00 points; the futures closed at 4081.250; the fair value is +1.00
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +7.75, Dow by +11, and NASDAQ by +19.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed higher
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
Dollar index GBP/USD USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD	EUR/USD USD/JPY INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are mixed
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.703%, up +11 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.822%, down -3.8 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.335%, down -5.2 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.632, up from -0.695
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.119, down from 0.168
• VIX
  • At 20.90 @ 6:45 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 26.59 on November 10; low = 20.31 on November 24
  • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on November 25 was a green candle following a Doji, indicating a bullish turn following an indecisive week Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D near 90; RSI-9 is above 55 The week was up +60.78 or +1.5%; the 5-week ATR  is 171.53 An up week, third in the last five weeks, and fifth in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=3997.83, R1=402.31, R2=4098.51; S1=3961.63, S2=3897.15; T1 pivot level was breached Above 10-week EMA, below 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend
Daily	A large green with almost no lower and upper shadows Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above %D RSI-9 is below 70; above 8-day EMA; Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA; Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Drifting lower since 6:00 PM after rising more than hundred forty points in the Wednesday afternoon trading RSI-21 declined to just above 70 from near 90 Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side-Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to down from a high of 4096.00 at 6:00 PM; RSI-21 declined from above 80 to just near 60 At/above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways since 2:00 AM The Bollinger Band is relatively stable, and a bit contracted Bias: Up-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday, November 30, in higher volume. The major indices traded sideways from open until 1:30 PM, just before Fed Chair Powell’s speech. They then rocketed up.

Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average are leading the market higher after breaking above their downtrend line a few weeks ago.

For the month, the major US indices closed higher in lower volume. The markets in Asia and Europe also closed higher. The dollar index closed lower. The energy future closed mixed, the precious metal and industrial metals closed higher, and most soft commodities closed up too. The US Treasury yields closed down. All but one S&P sector – Telecommunication – closed up for the month.

 

From Briefing.com:

[…] The stock market closed out November on a decidedly upbeat note. The main indices all logged big gains today and the S&P 500 was able to break above a key technical level, its 200-day moving average at 4,050. […] All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in positive territory with gains ranging from 0.6% (energy) to 5.0% (information technology). Advancers led decliners by a greater than 6-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a greater than 3-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq. […] Dow Jones Industrial Average: -4.7% YTD S&P Midcap 400: -9.3% YTD Russell 2000: -16.0% YTD S&P 500: -14.4% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -26.7% YTD Reviewing today’s economic data: Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 0.8% compared to last week with purchase applications rising 4% while refinancing applications fell 13%. Advanced report for international trade in goods reflected a $99.0 billion deficit in October following a revised $91.9 billion deficit in September (from $92.2 billion). The advanced report for retail inventories fell 0.2% in October after a revised 0.1% decline in September (from +0.4%). The advanced report for wholesale inventories showed a 0.8% build in October after a revised 0.6% build in September (from 0.8%). Q3 GDP was revised up to 2.9% from the advance estimate of 2.6%. The GDP Price Deflator was also revised up to 4.3% (Briefing.com consensus 4.1%) from the advance estimate of 4.1%. […] November Chicago PMI fell further into contractionary territory (i.e. sub-50 reading) with a reading of 37.2 in November (Briefing.com consensus 47.5) following a reading of 45.2 in October. JOLTS Job Openings totaled 10.334 million in October following a revised 10.687 million total in September (10.717 million). Pending home sales fell 4.6% in October (Briefing.com consensus -5.2%) following a revised 8.7% decline in September (from -10.2%). Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a draw of 12.58 million barrels following last week’s 3.69 million barrel draw. […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX +0.3%, FTSE +0.8%, CAC +1.0% Asia: Nikkei -0.2%, Hang Seng +2.2%, Shanghai +0.1% Commodities:  Crude Oil +2.07 @ 80.49 Nat Gas -0.31 @ 6.94 Gold +30.70 @ 1779.40 Silver +0.86 @ 22.29 Copper +0.14 @ 3.78