Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are sharply lower following the NFP report at 8:30 AM; down more than 75 points from 8:00 AM
• The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 4058.00 for a change of sentiments
• The key economic data report is due during the day:
  • Non-Farm Employment Change ( 263K vs. 200K est.; prev. 284K) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Rate ( 3.7% vs. 3.7% est.; prev. 3.7%) at 8:30 AM
  • Average Hourly Earnings ( 0.6% est.; prev. 0.5%) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure 120-Min: Up-Side

30-Min: Up-Side 15-Min: Up-Side 6-Min:  Side-Up

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4015.64, 4999.83, and 3985.65
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4023.32, 4043.80, and 4050.87
• The key levels for E-mini futures: break above 4058.00, the high at 8:30 AM, and a break below 3090.25, the high of 3:30 AM on November 29

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2022) closed at 4081.00, and the index closed at 4076.57 – a spread of about +4.50 points; the futures closed at 4081.75; the fair value is -0.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -60.00, Dow by -400, and NASDAQ by -251.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed lower
• European markets are mixed
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
Dollar index GBP/USD USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD	EUR/USD USD/JPY INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are mostly higher
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.529%, down -24.6 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.636%, down -25.4 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.228%, down -23.0 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.699, down from -0.683
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.107, down from 0.115
• VIX
  • At 20.53 @ 8:30 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 26.59 on November 10; low = 20.31 on November 24
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on November 25 was a green candle following a Doji, indicating a bullish turn following an indecisive week Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D near 90; RSI-9 is above 55 The week was up +60.78 or +1.5%; the 5-week ATR  is 171.53 An up week, third in the last five weeks, and fifth in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=3997.83, R1=402.31, R2=4098.51; S1=3961.63, S2=3897.15; T1 pivot level was breached Above 10-week EMA, below 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend
Daily	A small Doji candle just below the previous day’s close  Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above %D RSI-9 is around 65; above 8-day EMA; Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA; Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Drifting sideways to lower since 4:00 PM on Wednesday after rising more than hundred forty points in the Wednesday afternoon trading RSI-21 is drifting up from around 55 at 6:00 PM on Thursday to just above 60 Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to down from a high of 4096.00 at 6:00 PM on Wednesday; RSI-21 has been moving above 50 since 10:00 AM on Thursday At/above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways since 2:00 AM on Thursday. The Bollinger Band is relatively stable, and a bit narrow Bias: Up-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mainly lower on Thursday, December 1, in lower volume. NASDAQ Composite leaked out a small gain. Most indices made small Doji or red Harami candles.

The major indices opened higher but then turned down in the first hour of trading before bouncing up a bit and then drifting sideways to higher in the afternoon trading.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The 2-yr note yield fell 15 basis points to 4.23% and the 10-yr note yield fell 17 basis points to 3.53%. […] The main indices moved higher initially after the latest readings for the PCE and core-PCE Price Indexes showed a welcome moderation on a year-over-year basis. The upside momentum ran into a wall as the S&P 500 tested the 4,100 level and participants digested the ISM release. […] Only three of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were able to log a gain today, but none of the sectors moved more than 0.7% in either direction. Communication services (+0.3%) and health care (+0.2%) led the outperformers while financials (-0.7%) and consumer staples (-0.5%) brought up the rear. Dow Jones Industrial Average: -5.4% YTD S&P Midcap 400: -9.5% YTD Russell 2000: -16.2% YTD S&P 500: -14.5% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -26.6% YTD […] Personal income increased 0.7% month-over-month in October (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) and personal spending jumped 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus 0.8%). The PCE Price Index was up 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) and the core-PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%). […] Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 26 decreased by 16,000 to 225,000 (Briefing.com consensus 238,000) while continuing claims for the week ending November 19 increased by 57,000 to 1.608 million. […] The final IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI reading for November came in at 47.7 after a 47.6 reading in October. The November ISM Manufacturing Index dropped to 49.0% (Briefing.com consensus 49.8%) from 50.2% in October. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the sub-50.0% reading for November reflects a contraction in manufacturing activity. The ISM for November hit its lowest level since May 2020, breaking a string of 29 months of expansion. […] Total construction spending decreased 0.3% month-over-month in October (Briefing.com consensus -0.2%) following a downwardly revised 0.1% increase (from 0.2%) in September. Total private construction declined 0.5% month-over-month while total public construction spending increased 0.6%. On a year-over-year basis, total construction spending was up 9.2%. […] Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories showed a draw of 81 bcf versus a a draw of 80 bcf last week. […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX +0.7%, FTSE -0.2%, CAC +0.2% Asia: Nikkei +0.9%, Hang Seng +0.8%, Shanghai +0.5% Commodities:  Crude Oil +0.82 @ 81.31 Nat Gas -0.18 @ 6.76 Gold +37.60 @ 1817.00 Silver +0.66 @ 22.95 Copper +0.02 @ 3.80