Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:30 AM – moving sideways to down since 11:00 PM
• The odds are for a sideways to down day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 4131.75 and a break below 4117.75 for clarity
• The major economic data report is due during the day:
  • PPI m/m ( -0.5% vs. 0.0% est.; prev. 0.0%) at 8:30 AM
  • Core PPI m/m ( -0.1% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Claims ( 239K vs. 233K est.; prev. 228K) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Resumed Daily: Uptrend 120-Min: Up-Side

30-Min: Side-Down 15-Min: Down-Side 6-Min:  Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4086.94, 4072.55, and 4056.18
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4106.50, 4127.00, and 4134.37
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4131.75, the high at 5:15 AM, and a break below 4117.75, the low at 8:00 AM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 4120.75, and the index closed at 4091.95 – a spread of about +28.75 points; the futures closed at 4119.00; the fair value is +1.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +1.25, Dow down by -15, and NASDAQ up by +5.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai and Sydney closed down
• European markets are mostly higher – Italy is lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD	Dollar index USD/CHF NZD/USD USD/CAD INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are mostly higher
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.421, down -14.5 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.653%, down -12.5 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.970%, down -9.0 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.549, down from -0.494
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.231, up from +0.212
• VIX
  • At 19.01 @ 6:45 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 30.81 on March 13; low = 18.16 on March 2
  • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on April 7 was a small red Spinning Top candle near the close of the previous day’s candle. Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above the %D; RSI-9 is just below 60 The week was down -4.29 or -0.1%; the 5-week ATR  is 148.12 A down week, second in the last five weeks, and fifth in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=4102.66, R1=4135.49, R2=4165.95; S1=4072.20, S2=4039.37; No pivot levels were breached Above 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA Uptrend Resumed
Daily	A Bearish Engulfing candle Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below the %D RSI-9 is just above 60; below 8-DMA Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA; Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving up within an up-sloping flag, which is in effect since 2:00 PM on March 9, at the lower bound of the flag since 8:00 PM on April 12 RSI-21 is just above 40 At/below EMA20, which is at/below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias:  Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Fallen back into a Horizontal Channel that it broke above on April 10; RSI-21 is around 45 Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side-Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been forming an upsloping flag since 9:30 PM. The Bollinger Band is relatively stable and narrow Bias: Down-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday, April 12, in higher volume. The major indices opened with volatility and, after initial swings, declined in the morning before turning around and rising to their respective resistance levels. They mostly declined in the afternoon trading.

From Briefing.com:

The day started on an upbeat note as investors digested the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq logged gains of 0.6% and 0.9%, respectively, shortly after the open. […] Early gains dissipated, though, as mega cap stocks rolled over and as Treasury yields also climbed off their post-CPI lows. The 2-yr Treasury note yield, at 4.06% before the CPI report, settled the session at 3.97%. The 10-yr note yield, at 3.44% before the report, settled at 3.42%. […] Things rolled over again in the late afternoon with mega cap stocks leading that slide. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) declined 0.6% today. […] The industrials (+0.3%), energy (+0.1%), and materials (+0.1%) sectors led the outperformers. The consumer discretionary (-1.5%), communication services (-0.9%), and information technology (-0.6%) sectors were the top laggards, weighed down by mega cap weakness. […] Nasdaq Composite: +14.0% YTD S&P 500: +6.6% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +2.3% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.5% YTD Russell 2000: +0.7% YTD […] The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 5.3% with purchase applications jumping 8.0% while refinance applications were flat. Total CPI was up 0.1% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%) following a 0.4% increase in February. Core-CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.4%, as expected, following a 0.5% increase in February. Services inflation was up 0.3% month-over-month, versus up 0.5% in February, and up 7.3% year-over-year versus up 7.6% in February. Excluding shelter, services inflation was flat, compared to a 0.1% increase in February, and up 6.1% year-over-year versus up 6.9% in February. On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 5.0%, versus up 6.0% in February. That is the smallest 12-month increase since May 2021. Core-CPI was up 5.6% year-over-year, versus up 5.5% in February. […] The weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a build of 0.597 million barrels versus last week’s draw of 3.74 million barrels. […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX +0.3%, FTSE +0.5%, CAC +0.1% Asia: Nikkei +0.6%, Hang Seng -0.9%, Shanghai +0.4% Commodities:  Crude Oil +1.69 @ 83.22 Nat Gas -0.11 @ 2.09 Gold +4.80 @ 2024.80 Silver +0.27 @ 25.48 Copper +0.06 @ 4.09