Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:30 AM – jumped p following the CPI report at 8:30 AM
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 4138.50 for a change of sentiments
• The major economic data report is due during the day:
  • CPI m/m ( 0.1% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM
  • Core CPI m/m ( 0.4% vs. 0.4% est.; prev. 0.5%) at 8:30 AM
  • CPI y/y ( 5.0% vs. 5.1% est.; prev. 6.0%) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Resumed Daily: Uptrend 120-Min: Up-Side

30-Min: Up-Side 15-Min: Side-Up 6-Min:  Side-Up

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4133.13, 4105.36, and 4094.98
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4147.72, 4159.77, and 4176.54
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4177.25, the high at 8:30 AM, and a break below 4138.50, the low at 8:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 4137.75, and the index closed at 4108.94 – a spread of about +28.75 points; the futures closed at 4136.50; the fair value is +1.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +35.00, Dow by +220, and NASDAQ by +148.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Hong Kong closed down
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY	Dollar index USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are mostly higher
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.434, down -13.0 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.621%, down -16.2 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.024%, down -4.8 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.590, down from -0.508
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.187, down from +0.219
• VIX
  • At 19.23 @ 6:45 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 30.81 on March 13; low = 18.16 on March 2
  • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on April 7 was a small red Spinning Top candle near the close of the previous day’s candle. Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above the %D; RSI-9 is just below 60 The week was down -4.29 or -0.1%; the 5-week ATR  is 148.12 A down week, second in the last five weeks, and fifth in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=4102.66, R1=4135.49, R2=4165.95; S1=4072.20, S2=4039.37; No pivot levels were breached Above 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA Uptrend Resumed
Daily	A small Doji candle just above two side-by-side white lines Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below the %D RSI-9 is just above 65; above 8-DMA Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA; Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving up within an up-sloping flag, which is in effect since 2:00 PM on March 9 RSI-21 is just above 50 At/above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias:  Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving above just above the upper band of a Horizontal Channel since 3:30 PM on April 10, a convincing break above 4136.00 will have a 61.8% extension target around 4158.00 and a 100% extension target around 4172.00; RSI-21 is around 50 Below EMA10 of EMA50, but at/above EMA20 Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways to up since 3:00 AM. The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 4:00 AM, with the price walking up the upper band. Bias: Side-Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Tuesday, April 11, in mixed volume. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite closed lower. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in higher volume.

The major indices opened flat and then gradually traded higher until the final hour of trading, when they declined.

From Briefing.com:

[…] Some of the mega cap stocks were able to climb off their session lows as the broader market settled into a steady grind higher in the afternoon. The main indices took a sharp turn lower, though, with about 30 minutes left in the session […] The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) logged a 0.6% decline while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) gained 0.7%, reflecting underlying strength in the market. In turn, advancers led decliners by a nearly 3-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a 5-to-3 margin at the Nasdaq. Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed with a gain led by the cyclical energy (+0.9%), financial (+0.9%), materials (+0.7%), and industrial (+0.6%) sectors. Losses from their respective mega cap components drove the information technology (-1.0%), communication services (-0.4%), and consumer discretionary (flat) sectors to the bottom of the pack. […] Treasury yields settled somewhat higher in front of tomorrow’s inflation data. The 2-yr note yield rose five basis points to 4.05% and the 10-yr note yield rose two basis points to 3.43%. Nasdaq Composite: +15.0% YTD S&P 500: +7.0% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +2.8% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.6% YTD Russell 2000: +1.4% YTD […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX +0.4%, FTSE +0.6%, CAC+0.9% Asia: Nikkei +1.1%, Hang Seng +0.8%, Shanghai -0.1% Commodities:  Crude Oil +1.67 @ 81.53 Nat Gas +0.03 @ 2.20 Gold +15.40 @ 2020.00 Silver +0.28 @ 25.21 Copper +0.05 @ 4.03