Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM – moved up more than 24 points overnight but retreating since 6:30 AM
• The odds are for an up day, with a sideways to down move from the pre-open levels around 4160.00 – watch for a break above 4171.75 and a break below 4146.25 for more clarity
• The major economic data report is due during the day.
  • JOLTS Job Openings ( 10.49M est.; prev. 10.82M) at 10:00 AM
  • Factory Orders ( -0.4% est.; prev. -1.6% )at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Resumed Daily: Uptrend 120-Min: Up

30-Min: Up 15-Min: Up 6-Min:  Up-Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4113.20, 4099.73, and 4081.71
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4136.54, 4147.72, and 4159.77
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4171.75, the high at 6:30 AM,  and a break below 4146.25, the high at 10:30 AM on Monday

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 4153.50, and the index closed at 4124.51 – a spread of about +29.00 points; the futures closed at 4153.75; the fair value is -0.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +10.25, Dow by +32, and NASDAQ by +37.25

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Hong Kong closed down; Mumbai was closed for trading
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD NZD/USD	Dollar index USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are mostly higher
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.466, down -1.5 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.671%, up +0.8 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.970%, down -2.1 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.504, up from -0.510
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.205, up from +0.182
• VIX
  • At 18.84 @ 8:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 30.81 on March 13; low = 18.16 on March 2
  • Sentiment: Risk-On-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on March 31 was a relatively large green candle with a small lower shadow and almost no upper shadow Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above the %D; RSI-9 is just below 60 The week was up +138.32 or +3.5%; the 5-week ATR  is 159.22 An up week, fourth in the last five weeks, and sixth in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=4057.20, R1=4162.86, R2=4216.42; S1=4003.64, S2=3897.98; R1/R2 pivot levels were breached Above 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA Uptrend Resumed
Daily	A relatively small green candle with small upper and lower shadows; Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above the %D – above 95 RSI-9 is above 70; above 8-DMA Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA; Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving up within an up-sloping flag, which is in effect since 2:00 PM on March 9, breached the upper bound. RSI-21 has been moving around 75; made Bearish Divergence at 6:00 AM Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias:  Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Trending up since 2:00 PM on March 28; RSI-21 has been moving around 65; made Bearish Divergences a few times since 4:30 PM on March 31 Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving up since 4:45 PM. The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 4:15 AM with the price first walking up the upper band and then retreated to the middle band Bias: Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Monday, April 3, in mostly lower volume. NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000, and Dow Jones Transportation Average closed lower. Transports traded in higher volume.

The major indices opened higher and traded up in the first hour of trading, then gave up most of those gains in the next couple of hours but recovered before close.

From Briefing.com:

[…] WTI crude oil futures rose 6.9% today to $80.60/bbl, helping to drive a nearly 5.0% gain in the S&P 500 energy sector. […] The main indices traded in fairly narrow ranges today, featuring the outperformance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average throughout the session. The S&P 500 climbed to 4,127 in early action but gave back those gains and then some as it slid to 4,098 before staging an afternoon push that left it close to its high for the day by the closing bell. The Nasdaq for its part languished in negative territory throughout the day, but ended well off its worst levels as mega cap stocks pared larger losses in a late afternoon advance. […] The real estate (-1.0%) and utilities (-0.7%) sectors were also notably weak today. […] The 2-yr Treasury note yield fell seven basis points to settle at 3.99% after hitting 4.14% overnight. The 10-yr note yield fell six basis points to 3.43% today after hitting 3.54% overnight. Nasdaq Composite: +16.5% YTD S&P 500: +7.4% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +3.3% YTD Russell 2000: +2.3% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.4% YTD […] The March IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in the final reading from 49.3. The March ISM Manufacturing Index decreased to 46.3% (Briefing.com consensus 47.5%) from 47.7% in February. That is the lowest reading since May 2020. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the sub-50.0% reading for March reflects a general contraction in manufacturing activity for the fifth straight month. […] Total construction spending declined 0.1% month-over-month in February (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%) following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase (from -0.1%) in January. Total private construction was flat month-over-month while total public construction dropped 0.2% month-over-month. On a year-over-year basis, total construction spending was up 5.2%. […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.3%, FTSE +0.5%, CAC +0.3% Asia: Nikkei +0.5%, Hang Seng +0.1%, Shanghai +0.7% Commodities:  Crude Oil +5.22 @ 80.60 Nat Gas -0.10 @ 2.11 Gold +15.00 @ 2001.70 Silver -0.09 @ 24.04 Copper -0.03 @ 4.05