Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:45 AM – moving up since 4:15 AM after declining more than 15 points to 4078.00
• The odds are for an up day – watch for a break below 4078.00 for a change of sentiments
• The major economic data report is due during the day.
  • Core PCE Price Index ( 0.3% vs. 0.4% est.; prev. 0.5%) at 8:30 AM
  • Personal Income ( 0.3% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.6% )at 8:30 AM
  • Personal Spending ( 0.2% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 2.0%) at 8:30 AM
  • Chicago PMI ( 43.1 est.; prev. 43.6) at 9:45 AM
  • Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment ( 63.1 est.; prev. 63.4) at 10:00
  • Revised UoM Inflation Expectations ( prev. 3.8% ) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure Daily: Uptrend Resumed 120-Min: Up

30-Min: Up-Side 15-Min: Side 6-Min:  Up

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4051.91, 4032.10, and
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4072.30, 4081.51, and 4089.49
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4097.75, a high at 8:30 AM,  and a break below 4084.50, a low at 8:15 AM

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 4080.75, and the index closed at 4050.83 – a spread of about +30.00 points; the futures closed at 4080.00; the fair value is +0.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +10.75, Dow by +113, and NASDAQ by +22.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed higher
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD	Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are higher
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.522, down -6.1 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.719%, up +0.5 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.134%, down -5.2 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.610, down from -0.601
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.195, up from +0.129
• VIX
  • At 19.17 @ 7:45 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 30.81 on March 13; low = 18.16 on March 2
  • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on March 24 was a small green candle with a long upper shadow and a small lower shadow Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above the %D; RSI-9 is just above 50 The week was up +54.35 or +1.4%; the 5-week ATR  is 154.85 An up week, third in the last five weeks, and fifth in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=3973.21, R1=4037.27, R2=4103.54; S1=3906.94, S2=3842.88; R1 pivot level was breached Below 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily	A small Doji candle with a smaller upper shadow than the lower shadow that gapped up; Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above the %D – above 95 RSI-9 is above 60; above 8-DMA Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA; Uptrend Resumed
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving up within an up-sloping flag, which is in effect since 2:00 PM on March 9, finding resistance around 4080.00 RSI-21 has declined to just above 60 from above 80 after making a Bearish Divergence at 8:00 PM on March 30 Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias:  Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Trending up since 2:00 PM on March 28; moving sideways to down since 7:30 PM RSI-21 has declined to just below 55 from above 75 after making Bearish Divergence At/above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways to down since 10:45 PM. The Bollinger Band is relatively stable, with the price near the upper band. Bias: Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Thursday, March 30, in mixed volume. Russell 2000 traded in closed lower in higher volume, and NASDAQ Composite also trade in higher volume.

Most major indices made small – Doji-like – spinning top candles that gapped a little from the previous day’s candles. The day’s range was small, and the price action was muted.

From Briefing.com:

[…] Today’s trade started on an upbeat note following yesterday’s pleasing price action. […[ Early momentum dissipated, though, and the main indices slowly declined, hitting their session lows around midday. […] Following the midday dip, the main indices bounced and closed near their best levels of the day. […] The ten remaining S&P 500 sectors, aside from financials, logged gains ranging from 0.2% (industrials) to 1.2% (real estate). The influential information technology (+1.1%) and consumer discretionary (+0.9%) sectors were among the top performers. The 2-yr note yield rose four basis points to 4.11% and the 10-yr note yield fell two basis points to 3.55%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.5% to 102.14. […] Nasdaq Composite: +14.8% YTD S&P 500: +5.5% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +1.6% YTD Russell 2000: +0.4% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.9% YTD […] Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 25 increased by 7,000 to 198,000 (Briefing.com consensus 196,000) while continuing jobless claims for the week ending March 18 increased by 4,000 to 1.689 million from last week’s revised level of 1.685 million (from 1.694 million). […] The third estimate for fourth quarter GDP showed a slight downward revision to 2.6% (Briefing.com consensus 2.7%) from 2.7% reported in the second estimate. The lowered estimate was owed to downward revisions to exports and consumer spending. The GDP Price Deflator was left unrevised at 3.9% (Briefing.com consensus 3.9%). The personal consumption expenditures index was left unrevised at 3.7% while the core-PCE Price Index was revised up to 4.4% from 4.3% in the second estimate. […] The weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories showed a draw of 47 bcf versus a draw of 72 bcf last week. […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX +1.3%, FTSE +0.7%, CAC +1.1% Asia: Nikkei -0.4%, Hang Seng +0.6%, Shanghai +0.7% Commodities:  Crude Oil +1.28 @ 74.25 Nat Gas -0.06 @ 2.11 Gold +32.10 @ 1999.90 Silver +0.45 @ 23.97 Copper +0.02 @ 4.10