Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:45 AM; broke above a down-sloping flag at 8:00 Am
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 4043.50 for a change of sentiments
• The major economic data report is due during the day:
  • Factory Orders ( -1.6% vs. -1.8% est.; prev. 1.7%) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend 120-Min: Side-Up

30-Min: Up-Side 15-Min: Side-Up 6-Min:  Side-Up

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4039.15, 4030.28, and 4009.91
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4052.35, 4071.12, and 4081.16
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4064.00, the high at 8:30 AM, and a break below 4043.50, the low at 6:45 AM

Pre-Open

• On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2023) closed at 4049.25, and the index closed at 4045.64 – a spread of about +4.50 points; the futures closed at 4049.75; the fair value is -0.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +10.25, Dow by +47, and NASDAQ by +54.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai was down
• European markets are mostly higher – the UK and Switzerland are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
Dollar index GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD	EUR/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are mixed
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.905, up +7.7 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.833%, down -5.1 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.871%, up +24.1 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.964, down from -0.802
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at -0.070, down from 0.060
• VIX
  • At 19.04 @ 8:00 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 23.63 on February 22; low = 18.11 on February 15
  • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on March 3 was a green Harami candle with no upper shadow and a small lower shadow, bouncing off from the 13-week SMA Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed above the %D; RSI-9 is just below 55 The week was up +75.60 or +1.9%; the 5-week ATR  is 120.13 An up week, second in the last five weeks, and fifth in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=4007.36, R1=4086.57, R2=4127.49; S1=3966.44, S2=3887.23; R1 pivot level was breached Above 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA Uptrend Resumed
Daily	A green candle that gapped up, with almost no upper and lower shadows following an outside day at the 200-day SMA. Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above the %D and 90 following a Bullish Divergence. RSI-9 is above 50; above 8-DMA Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA; Uptrend Resumed
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Broke above a down-sloping flag within a downtrend; broke a sequence of lower highs and lower lows since 4:00 PM February 2 – lower lows and lower highs; RSI-21 is around 75 Above EMA20, which is at/below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias:  Side-Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Breaking above a down-sloping flag above 4050.00 after rising up from 3925.00 at 3:00 AM on March 2 RSI-21 turned up just below 65 Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been drifting lower since 12:30 AM. The Bollinger Band has been expanding a little since 8:00 AM, with the price walking up the upper band. Bias: Side-Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Friday, March 3, in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average traded in lower volume.

Major indices gapped up at the open and traded higher for the rest of the day. All S&P sectors closed higher.

For the week, the major US indices closed higher in higher volume. Most exchanges in Asia and Europe closed higher. The dollar index closed lower, the energy futures and metals closed higher, and the soft commodities were mixed. The US Treasury yields were mixed. All but two S&P sectors – Consumer Staples and Utilities – closed higher.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 rose 1.2%, 2.0%, and 1.6%, respectively. [///] The 10-yr note yield settled back below 4.00%, down 11 basis points to 3.96%. The 2-yr note yield fell five basis points to 4.86%. The U.S. Dollar Index also fell 0.5% to 104.50. […] Nasdaq Composite: +11.7% YTD Russell 2000: +9.5% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +9.0% YTD S&P 500: +5.4% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.7% YTD […] February IHS Markit Services PMI – Final 50.6; Prior 50.5 February ISM Services PMI 55.1% (Briefing.com consensus 54.5%); Prior 55.2% […]