Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:45 AM, forming a Cup-with-Handl pattern, albeit a very small handle; A break above 4002.25 will complete the pattern
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for break below 3991.25 for a change of sentiments
• The major economic data report is due during the day:
  • Final Service PMI ( 50.5 est.; prev. 50.5) at 9:45 AM
  • ISM Services PMI ( 54.2 est.; prev. 55.2 ) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure 120-Min: Down-Side

30-Min: Side-Up 15-Min: Up-Side 6-Min:  Up-Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3964.90, 3939.12, and 3928.16
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3990.84, 4000.470, and 4018.05
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4002.50, the high at 7:00 AM, and a break below 3991.25, the low at 5:45 AM

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2023) closed at 3986.25, and the index closed at 3981.35 – a spread of about +5.00 points; the futures closed at 3984.75; the fair value is +1.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +12.25, Dow by +80, and NASDAQ by +31.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Singapore was down
• European markets are mostly higher – Switzerland is lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are mostly higher
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.073, up +23.0 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 4.021%, up +11.7 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.904%, up +23.8 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.831, down from -0.823
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at -0.052, down from 0.061
• VIX
  • At 19.48 @ 7:00 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 23.63 on February 22; low = 18.11 on February 15
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on February 24 was a red candle with a small lower shadow and almost no upper shadow Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below the %D; RSI-9 is just below 50 The week was down -109.05 or 2.7%; the 5-week ATR  is 137.72 A down week, third in the last five weeks, and sixth  in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=3988.49, R1=4033.90, R2=4097.76; S1=3924.63, S2=3879.22; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached At/below 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA Uptrend Under Pressurere
Daily	A Bullish Engulfing candle with small upper and lower shadows; an outside day at the 200-day SMA. Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above the %D; Bullish Divergence RSI-9 is just above 32; below 8-DMA Below 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA; Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Trending down since the high of 4208.50 reached at 2:00 PM on February 2 – lower lows and lower highs; A downsloping channel is emerging,, with price bouncing up t the upper bound Broke below a descending triangle at 4:00 AM on February 21 – the 61.8% extension target near 3970.00 is achieved, and the 100% extension target is near 3914.00; A downsloping channel is emerging, with price bouncing up to the upper bound. RSI-21 has bounced up above 70 from 25 Above EMA20, which is at/below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias:  Down-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Broke above down-sloping wedge at 9:30 AM on March 2; up more than 75 points from the low at 3:00 AM on Thursday RSI-21 is moving around 65 since Thursday morning Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving up since 3:00 AM. The Bollinger Band has been contracting a little since 7:30 AM. Bias: Up-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday, March 2, in mostly lower volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average traded in lower volume.

Most major indices opened lower and traded sideways until 1:30 PM before moving higher. Most commodities closed lower – Crude Oil, Platinum, Palladium, Wheat, and Soybeans closed higher. Only two S&P sectors – Consumer Discretionary and Financials – closed lower.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The 10-yr note yield, which hit 4.00% overnight after the eurozone reported core CPI was up a record 5.6% year-over-year in February versus 5.3% in January, settled the day up eight basis points to 4.07%. […] Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors logged a gain today led by utilities (+1.8%) and information technology (+1.3%). The financials (-0.5%) and consumer discretionary (-0.3%) sectors were the lone holdouts in negative territory by the close. […] Nasdaq Composite: +9.5% YTD Russell 2000: +8.0% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +7.8% YTD S&P 500: +3.7% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.4% YTD […] Q4 Productivity-Rev. 1.7% (Briefing.com consensus 2.5%); Prior 3.0%; Q4 Unit Labor Costs-Rev. 3.2% (Briefing.com consensus 1.4%); Prior 1.1% […] Weekly Initial Claims 190K (Briefing.com consensus 197K); Prior 192K; Weekly Continuing Claims 1.655 mln; Prior was revised to 1.660 mln from 1.654 mln […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX +0.2%, FTSE +0.4%, CAC +0.7% Asia: Nikkei -0.1%, Hang Seng -0.9%, Shanghai -0.1% Commodities:  Crude Oil +0.38 @ 78.07 Nat Gas -0.05 @ 2.90 Gold -2.80 @ 1842.70 Silver -0.16 @ 20.97 Copper -0.08 @ 4.08