Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM after a big swing following the NFP report; broke below  a descending triangle at 8:30 AM – the 61.8% extension target is near 4120.00, and the 100% extension target is near 4100.00
• The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 4153.25 and a break above 4174.50 for a change of sentiments
• The major economic data report is due during the day:
  • Non-Farm Employment Change ( 517K vs. 193K est.; prev. 260K) at 8:30 AM
  • Average Hourly Earnings ( 0.3% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Rate (3.4% vs. 3.6% est.; prev. 3.5% ) at 8:30 AM
  • Final Services PMI ( 46.6 est.; prev. 46.6) at 9:45 AM
  • ISM Services PMI  ( 50.5 est.; prev. 49.6 ) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4130.35, 4113.05, and 4100.02
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4145.40, 4159.17, and 4180.16
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4153.25, the low at 6:00 AM, and a break below 4126.00, the low at 3:30 PM on Wednesday

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2023) closed at 4192.25, and the index closed at 4179.76 – a spread of about +15.75 points; the futures closed at 4191.50; the fair value is +0.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -48.00, Dow by -187, and NASDAQ by -223.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai and Hong Kong closed down
• European markets are mostly lower – Switzerland is up
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are mixed
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.389, down -0.8 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.545%, down -2.3 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.109%, down -3.0 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.720, up from -0.742
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.156, down from 0.171
• VIX
  • At 18.48 @ 8:45 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 23.76 on January 3; low = 17.06 on February 2
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher Thursday, February 2, in higher volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down.

The major indices gapped up at the opened lower and traded higher before faltering in the late afternoon and giving up some gains. All but four S&P sectors Consumer Staples, Energy, Materials, and Healthcare – closed higher.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The Nasdaq Composite (+3.2%) led the upside charge thanks to a huge earnings-driven gain in Meta Platforms (META 188.77, +35.65, +23.3%). […] The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) rose 3.2% versus a 1.1% gain in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) and a 1.5% gain in the S&P 500. […] The communication services sector (+6.7%) held the top spot a wide margin, followed by consumer discretionary (+3.1%) and information technology (+2.8%). The energy sector (-2.5%), meanwhile, was the worst performer as oil prices continued to lose ground ($75.68/bbl, -1.14, -1.5%). […] The 2-yr note yield fell three basis points to 4.08% and the 10-yr note yield was unchanged at 3.40%. Nasdaq Composite: +16.6% YTD Russell 2000: +13.6% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +12.2% YTD S&P 500: +8.9% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.7% YTD […] Weekly Initial Claims 183K (Briefing.com consensus 201K); Prior 186K; Weekly Continuing Claims 1.655 mln; Prior was revised to 1.666 mln from 1.675 mln […] Q4 Productivity-Prel 3.0% (Briefing.com consensus 2.5%); Prior was revised to 1.4% from 0.8%; Q4 Unit Labor Costs-Prel 1.1% (Briefing.com consensus 1.5%); Prior was revised to 2.0% from 2.4% […] December Factory Orders 1.8% (Briefing.com consensus 2.2%); Prior was revised to -1.9% from -1.8% […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX +2.2%, FTSE +0.8%, CAC +1.3% Asia: Nikkei +0.2%, Hang Seng -0.5%, Shanghai +0.0% Commodities:  Crude Oil -1.14 @ 75.68 Nat Gas -0.05 @ 2.45 Gold -10.60 @ 1932.90 Silver +0.04 @ 23.67 Copper -0.02 @ 4.10