Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:30 AM, near the upper bound of a horizontal channel –  between 4163.25 and 4136.75 – in effect since 4:00 PM on Wednesday
• The odds are for a sideways to up day – watch for a break above 4163.25 and a break below 4136.75 for clarity
• The major economic data report is due during the day:
  • BoE Monetary Policy Statement at 7:00 AM
  • BoE Official Bank Rate ( 4.0% vs. 4.0% est.; prev. 3.5%) at 7:00 AM
  • Challenger Job Cuts ( 440%; prev. 129.1%) at 7:30 AM
  • ECB Main Refiancing Rate ( 3.00% vs. 3.00% est.; prev. 2.5%) at 8:15 AM
  • Unemployment Claims ( 183K vs. 196K est.; prev. 186K) at 8:30 AM
  • Prelim Nonfarm Productivity ( 3.0% vs. 2.5% est.; prev. 0.8%) at 8:30 AM
  • Prelim Unit Labor Costs (1.1% vs. 1.6% est.; prev. 2.0% ) at 8:30 AM
  • ECB Press Conference at 8:45 AM
  • Factory Orders ( 2.3% est.; prev. -1.8% ) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend 120-Min: Up

30-Min: Up-Side 15-Min: Side 6-Min:  Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4109.25, 4100.02, and 4076.83
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4183.73, 4203.04, and 4218.70
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4163.25, the high at 3:30 PM on Wednesday, and a break below 4136.75, the low at 9:30 PM on Wednesday

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2023) closed at 4134.50, and the index closed at 4119.21 – a spread of about +15.25 points; the futures closed at 4132.25; the fair value is -2.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +21.25, Dow down by -89, and NASDAQ up by +183.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Hong Kong closed down
• European markets are mostly higher – Switzerland is down
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD NZD/USD INR/USD	Dollar index USD/CHF USD/CAD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are mixed
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.397, up 2.2 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.547%, up +0.5 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.129%, up +3.1 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.732, down from -0.723
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.150, down from 0.112
• VIX
  • At 17.63 @ 6:45 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 23.76 on January 3; low = 17.36 on January 12, 2022
  • Sentiment: Risk-On-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on January 27 was a Bullish Engulfing candle following a small red Harami candle breaking above the downtrend line from an all-time high made in the last week of December 2021 Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D; RSI-9 is around 60 The week was up +104.01 or +2.7%; the 5-week ATR  is 142.86 An up week, third in the last five weeks, and fifth in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=4037.94, R1=4126.83, R2=4183.09; S1=3981.68, S2=3892.79; R1/R2 pivot levels were breached Above 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA Uptrend Resumed
Daily	A large Spinning Top green candle breaking above a resistance level around 4100.00; an uneven Cup-With-Handle pattern – the 100% extension target is around 4375.00 and the 161.8% extension target is near 4750.00 Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above%D but turning down; potential Bearish Divergence RSI-9 is near 70; above 8-DMA Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA; Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving up since 10:00 AM on January 19 making higher lows and higher highs, just below 4180.00, the high of December 13, 2022 RSI-21 has been drifting sideways to lower since 6:00 PM Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50  Bias:  Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to up since 6:00 PM on Wednesday; RSI-21 has drifted sideways to down to around 61 from above 75 At/above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways to up since 2:45 AM The Bollinger Band has been contracting a bit since 7:15 AM with the price moving up from the middle band to the upper band Bias: Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher Wednesday, February 1, in higher volume. NASDAQ Composite traded in lower volume.

The major indices opened lower and traded lower until the FOMC decision at 2:00 PM. They swung up-&-down until the Press Conference at 2:30 PM when they rose before declining a litter later closing a bit off the high for the day. Nine of the 11 S&P sectors closed higher. Energy closed down, and the Financials were unchanged.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The main indices all closed in positive territory, led by the Nasdaq with a 2.0% gain. The S&P 500 for its part closed above the 4,100 level. […] The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) closed with a 1.9% gain versus a 1.0% gain in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) and a 1.1% gain in the S&P 500. […] Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed with a gain, led by information technology (+2.3%), consumer discretionary (+1.9%), and communication services (+1.3%). The energy sector (-1.9%) was the lone holdout in negative territory as oil prices continued to retreat today. WTI crude oil futures fell 2.7% to $76.82/bbl. […] The 2-yr note yield, which is most sensitive to changes in the fed funds rate, fell ten basis points to 4.11%. The 10-yr note yield fell 13 basis points to 3.40%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.9% to 101.18. Nasdaq Composite: +12.9% YTD Russell 2000: +11.3% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +10.9% YTD S&P 500: +7.3% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.9% YTD […] Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -9.0%; Prior 7.0% January ADP Employment Change 106K (Briefing.com consensus 170K); Prior was revised to 253K from 235K January IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI – Final 46.9; Prior 46.8 December Construction Spending -0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%); Prior was revised to 0.5% from 0.2% […] January ISM Manufacturing Index 47.4% (Briefing.com consensus 48.0%); Prior 48.4% […] December JOLTS – Job Openings 11.012 mln; Prior was revised to 10.440 mln from 10.458 mln […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX +0.4%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC -0.1% Asia: Nikkei +0.1%, Hang Seng +1.1%, Shanghai +0.9% Commodities:  Crude Oil -2.13 @ 76.82 Nat Gas -0.18 @ 2.50 Gold -1.90 @ 1943.50 Silver -0.23 @ 23.62 Copper -0.11 @ 4.12