Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM; drifting down since 4:00 AM; down more than 20 points from the high of 3948.00
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 3911.75 for a change of sentiments
• The key economic data report due during the day:
  • Core Durable Goods ( 0.7% vs. 0.4% est; prev. 0.4% ) at 8:30 AM
  • Durable Goods ( 0.7% vs. 0.1% est.; prev. 0.5%) at 8:30 AM
  • Pending Homes Sales ( -3,5% est.; prev. -3.9%) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: In Correction Daily: In Correction 120-Min: Side-Up

30-Min: Up 15-Min: Up 6-Min: Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3892.07, 3872.12, and 3850.29
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3912.71, 3937.65, and 3943.18
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3936.50, the high at 7:30 AM and a break below 3911.75, the low at 2:45 AM

Pre-Open

• On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2022) closed at 3919.00 and the index closed at 3911.74 – a spread of about +7.25 points; the futures closed at 3916.25; the fair value is +2.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +5.75, Dow by +17; and NASDAQ by +17.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed up
• European markets are mixed – Germany, the UK, Switzerland, and STOXX-600 are higher; France, Spain, and Italy are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CAD INR/USD	Dollar index GBP/USD USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.196%, up +4.0 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.325%, up +12.9 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.075%, up +0.6 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.121, up from 0.087
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.129, up from 0.040
• VIX
  • At 28.22 @ 8:00 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 35.05 on June 13; low = 24.94 on May 4
  • Sentiment: Risk-On-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on June 24 was a large green candle that opened near the middle of the previous week’s real body and closed above its high Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed above %D; above 40 RSI-9 is above 40 after making a Bullish Divergence The week was up +236.90 or +6.4%; the 5-week ATR  is 231.69 An up week; second in the least five weeks and second  in the previous ten weeks; ten of the last twelve weeks were down The weekly pivot point=3846.90, R1=3978.49, R2=4045.24; S1=3780.15, S2=3648.56; R1 pivot level was breached Below 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; at/below 89-week SMA In Correction
Daily	A green candle that gapped up at the open with almost no upper and lower shadows Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above %D; near 100 RSI-9 is above 50; above 8-day EMA; Bullish Divergence on June 17 Above 20-day EMA; below 50-day EMA, 200-day SMA, and 100-day SMA; Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	The sequence of lower highs and lower lows since May 30 is broken; moving up since 10:00 AM on June 17; broke above an Inverse Head-&-Shoulders pattern – the 61;8% extension target near 3910.00 is achieved and the 100% extension target is near 3974.00 RSI-21 is moving above 65 Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side-Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Trending up since 10:30 AM on June 17; broke above a Horizontal Channel between 3805.50 and 3737.75 – the 161.8% extension target near 3915.00 is achieved RSI-21 has declined to below 60 from above 81 on Friday and after making Bearish Divergence At/above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is drifting up since 2:45 PM on Friday The Bollinger Band is expanding a bit since 8:15 AM with price at the lower band Bias: Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Friday, June 24, in higher volume. Major US indices gapped up at the open and then traded higher for the rest of the days.

For the week, the major indices closed higher on lower volume. Most market exchanges closed up in ASI and Europe. The dollar index closed down and most of the hard and soft commodities closed lower. The 10-year and 2-year US treasury yields were down for the week but the 30-year yields closed up

From Briefing.com:

[…] The market opened on a high note and quickly moved sharply higher before trading in narrow range for the rest of the session. The S&P 500 (+3.1%) finished the week just above the 3,900 level. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained more than 800 points, closing up 2.7%. The Nasdaq Composite was the best performer of the day gaining 3.3%. […] In addition, the Russell 3000 Value Index closed up 2.7% compared to the Russell 3000 Growth Index, which was up 3.6%. All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in the green with gains ranging from 1.5% (energy) to 4.0% (materials). […] The sector was boosted by crude oil, which climbed 3.3% to $107.65/bbl. Treasuries finished a solid week on a lower note with the 10-yr yield rising six basis points to 3.13% while the 2-yr yield rose five basis points to 3.06%. […] New home sales increased 10.7% month-over-month in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 696,000 units (Briefing.com consensus 595,000) from an upwardly revised 629,000 (from 591,000) in April. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were down 5.9%. […] The final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for June dropped to 50.0 (Briefing.com consensus 50.2) from the preliminary reading of 50.2. The final reading for May was 58.4. The June reading compares to 85.5 in the same period a year ago and is the lowest reading ever on records dating back to 1978. […] Dow Jones Industrial Average: -13.3% YTD S&P 500: -17.9% YTD S&P 400: -17.9% YTD Russell 2000: -21.4% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -25.8% YTD