Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:45 AM;  moving sideways since 12:00 AM forming a pennant between 3834.25 and 3816.75
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 3816.75 for a change of sentiments
• The key economic data report due during the day:
  • Revised UoM Consumer Sentiments ( 50.2 est.; prev. 50.2) at 10:00 AM
  • Revised UoM Inflation Expectations ( prev. 5.4%) at 10:00 AM
  • New Homes Sales ( 590K est.; prev. 591K) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: In Correction Daily: In Correction 120-Min: Side-Up

30-Min: Up 15-Min: Up-Side 6-Min: Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3802.58, 3784.07, and 3743.52
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3838.15, 3875.13, and 3900.00
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3834.25, the high at 1:45 AM and a break below 3816.75, the low at 3:15 AM

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2022) closed at 3798.75 and the index closed at 3795.73 – a spread of about +3.00 points; the futures closed at 3799.75; the fair value is -1.00
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +28.25, Dow by +208; and NASDAQ by +90.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed up
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.117%, up +7.3 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.24%, up +6.9 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.032%, up +22.9 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.085, up from 0.241
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.123, up from 0.127
• VIX
  • At 28.67 @ 7:00 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 35.05 on June 13; low = 24.94 on May 4
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on June 17 was a large red candle that gapped down at the open with a small lower shadow; at the lows of December 21, 2020 Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below %D; below 20 RSI-9 is just above 25 The week was down -132.11 or -3.4%; the 5-week ATR  is 240.01 A down week; fourth in the least five weeks and ninth in the previous ten weeks The weekly pivot point=3747.92, R1=3858.98, R2=3949.20; S1=3657.70, S2=3546.64; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached Below 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; at/below 89-week SMA In Correction
Daily	A green candle with an upper shadow smaller than the lower shadow within the upper shadow of the previous day Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above %D; Bullish Divergence on June 17 RSI-9 is just below 40; above 8-day EMA; Bullish Divergence on June 17 Below 20-day EMA; below 50-day EMA, 200-day SMA, and 100-day SMA; In Correction
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	The sequence of lower highs and lower lows is in danger of ending – a break above 3843.00 will do it Broke above 3805.50, completing an Inverse Head-&-Shoulders pattern – the 61;8% extension target is near 3910.00 and the 100% extension target is near 3974.00 RSI-21 is moving above 65 Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side-Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Trending up since 10:30 AM on June 17; broke above a Horizontal Channel between 3805.50 and 3737.75 – the 61.8% extension target is near 3847.00 and the 100% extension target is near 3873.00 RSI-21 is moving above 60 Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 2:45 AM The Bollinger Band has contracted since  2:45 AM Bias: Up-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday, June 23, in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in higher volume.

Major indices opened higher after a brief retreat mostly traded sideways to up. Most indices made small green real-bodied candles within the upper shadow of the previous day’s candle with lower shadows larger than the upper shadows.

From Briefing.com:

[…] Those concerns were evident in the underperformance of the cyclical energy (-3.7%), materials (-1.4%), financial (-0.5%), and industrials (-0.5%) sectors, falling prices for oil ($104.24, -1.83, -1.7%) and copper ($3.74, -0.22, -5.4%), and another run of buying interest in the Treasury market. […] On that same note, the countercyclical utilities (+2.4%), health care (+2.2%), and consumer staples (+2.0%) sectors were leaders throughout the day along with the real estate sector (+2.0%), which drafted off the drop in interest rates. The 2-yr note yield kissed 2.88% this morning after scraping 3.43% in June 14. The 10-yr note yield cruised to 3.02% after flirting with 3.50% on June 14. The 2-yr note yield and the 10-yr note yield eventually settled the cash session at 3.01% and 3.07%, respectively. […] Initial claims for the week ending June 18 decreased by 2,000 to 229,000 (Briefing.com consensus 230,000) while continuing claims for the week ending June 11 increased by 5,000 to 1.315 million. […] The preliminary June IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI reading was 52.4 compared to 57.0 for May. The preliminary June IHS Markit Services PMI reading was 51.6 compared to 53.4 for May. The Q1 Current Account Balance widened to -$291.4 billion (Briefing.com consensus -$279.0 billion) from a downwardly revised -$224.8 billion (from -$217.9 billion) in Q1. […] Dow Jones Industrial Average: -15.6% YTD S&P 500: -20.4% YTD S&P 400: -20.8% YTD Russell 2000: -23.9% YTD Nasdaq Composite: -28.2% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -1.8%, FTSE -1.0%, CAC -0.6% Asia: Nikkei +0.1%, Hang Seng +1.3%, Shanghai +1.6% Commodities:  Crude Oil -1.83 @ 104.24 Nat Gas -0.61 @ 6.26 Gold -9.80 @ 1828.60 Silver -0.44 @ 21.00 Copper -0.22 @ 3.73