Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher
- The odds are for an up day with good chance of sideways move from pre-open levels near 3145.00; elevated volatility – watch for break below 3123.75 for change of sentiments
- Key economic data due:
- Non-Farm Employment Change (4800K vs. 3037K est.; prev. 2509K) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Rate (11.1% vs. 12.4% est.; prev. 13.3%) at 8:30 AM
- Average Hourly Earnings (-1.2% vs. -0.8% est.; prev. -1.0%) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Claims (1427K vs. 1350K est.; prve. 1480K) at 8:30 AM
- Trade Balance ( -54.6B vs. -53.0B est.; prev. -49.4B) at 8:30 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3114.61, 3101.27 and 3067.43
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3141.16, 3154.90 and 3181.49
- Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3126.25, the high of 4:30 AM and break below 3118.25, the low of 6:30 AM
- On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2020) closed at 3104.75 and the index closed at 3115.86 – a spread of about -11.00 points; futures closed at 3103.00 for the day; the fair value is +1.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +38.00; Dow by +376 and NASDAQ by +90.00
Markets Around The World
- Markets in East closed higher
- European markets are higher
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield closed at 0.682%, up from June 30 close of 0.653%;
- 30-years is at 1.433% up from 1.409%
- 2-years yield is at 0.172% up from 0.148%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.510 up from 0.505
- Is at 28.14; down -0.48 from July 1 close; below 5-day SMA;
- Recent high 44.44 on June 15; low 29.26 on June 23
- Sentiment: Risk-Neutral
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (E-mini futures)||
|30-Minute (E-mini futures)||
|15-Minute (E-mini futures)||
Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Wednesday, July 1 in mostly lower. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, NYSE Composite and Russell 2000 closed up. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in higher volume. Most indices are trying to break above a congestion area. NASDAQ Composite closed at all time high.
The S&P 500 (+0.5%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.0%) finished with decent gains on Wednesday amid positive economic data and upbeat vaccine news. It was also record close for the Nasdaq, but it was a negative day for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.3%) and Russell 2000 (-1.0%).
The S&P 500 real estate (+2.6%), utilities (+2.3%), and communication services (+2.2%) sectors rose more than 2.0%, while the energy (-2.5%), financials (-1.0%), and materials (-0.5%) sectors closed in negative territory.[…]
U.S. Treasuries finished with modest losses, pushing yields higher across the curve. The 2-yr yield increased two basis points to 0.17%, and the 10-yr yield increased three basis points to 0.68%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.3% to 97.15. WTI crude declined 1.2%, or $0.48, to $39.76/bbl.[…]
- The ISM Manufacturing Index for June rose to 52.6% (Briefing.com consensus 49.2%) from 43.1% in May. This was the first reading above 50.0% in four months and the largest month-over-month increase since August 1980. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it reflects a clear bounce back from the super depressed conditions seen in April and May. It’s a natural rebound so to speak as the economy reopens, but the key is its sustainability, which is still an open question.
- Construction spending declined 2.1% m/m in May (Briefing.com consensus +1.1%) on the heels of a downwardly revised 3.5% decline (from -2.9%) in April.
- The key takeaway from the report is that total construction spending has decelerated and is now up just 0.3% yr/yr, with a 4.7% yr/yr increase in total public construction spending helping to offset a 1.2% yr/yr decline in total private construction spending.
- The ADP Employment Change report for June showed an estimated 2.369 million positions were added to private-sector payrolls. This was less than the Briefing.com consensus of 3.75 million. The data from May was revised higher to 3.065 million from -2.76 million.