Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower to near 3080.00
- The odds are for a sideways to up day with elevated volatility – watch for break below 3062.75 for change of sentiments
- Key economic data due:
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (269K vs. 2850K est.; prev. 3065K) at 8:15 AM
- ISM Manufacturing PMI ( 49.5 est.; prev. 43.1) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3067.43, 3032.27 and 3015.62
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3111.51, 3115.01 and 3127.12
- Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3093.50, the high of 5:30 AM and break below 3056.00, the low of 1:00 PM on Tuesday
- On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2020) closed at 3084.25 and the index closed at 3100.29 – a spread of about -16.00 points; futures closed at 3090.25 for the day; the fair value is -6.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -15.00; Dow by -176 and NASDAQ by -34.25
Markets Around The World
- Markets in East closed mixed – Shanghai, Sydney Mumbai and Singapore were up; Tokyo and Seoul were down; Hong Kong was closed
- European markets are lower
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield closed at 0.653%, up from June 29 close of 0.636;
- 30-years is at 1.409% up from 1.391%
- 2-years yield is at 0.164% up from 0.161%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.489 up from 0.475
- Is at 31.42; up +0.99 from June 30 close; above 5-day SMA;
- Recent high 44.44 on June 15; low 29.26 on June 23
- Sentiment: Risk-Neutral
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (E-mini futures)||
|30-Minute (E-mini futures)||
|15-Minute (E-mini futures)||
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday, June 30 in mixed volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 traded in lower volume. Most indices are in indecisive congestion area. All S&P sectors closed up. Indices opened up and then mostly traded higher during the day.
The S&P 500 gained 1.5% on Tuesday to close out a tremendous second quarter, while the Nasdaq Composite (+1.9%) pulled ahead amid strength in its mega-cap and semiconductor components. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.9%, and the Russell 2000 increased 1.4%.
The gains were broad, with all 11 S&P 500 sectors closing in positive territory. Eight sectors rose at least 1.0%, including a 2% gain in the energy sector (+2.2%), while the utilities sector (+0.4%) lagged. The most influential gains, though, were found in the mega-cap stocks, including Tesla (TSLA 1079.81, +70.46, +7.0%) and NVIDIA (NVDA 379.91, +11.91, +3.2%).[…]
U.S. Treasuries finished near their starting positions. The 2-yr yield declined one basis point to 0.15%, and the 10-yr yield increased two basis points to 0.65%. The U.S. Dollar Index decreased 0.2% to 97.38. WTI crude declined 1.0%, or $0.39, to $39.28/bbl.[…]
- The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for June increased to 98.1 (Briefing.com consensus 92.0) from a downwardly revised 85.9 (from 86.6) for May.
- The improvement is welcome, yet the key takeaway from the report is that the index remains well below the February reading of 132.6, which predated the COVID-19 shutdown effort.
- The Chicago PMI for June increased to 36.6 (Briefing.com consensus 45.0) from 32.3 in May.
- The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index increased 4.0% in April (Briefing.com consensus 4.1%) following a 3.9% increase in March.