Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower
- The odds are for a down day with high volatility – watch for break above 2512.00 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change ( -27K vs. -150K est.; prev. 179K ) at 8:30 AM
- Final Manufacturing PMI (est. 48.2; prev. 49.2) at 9:45 AM
- ISM Manufacturing PMI ( est. 44.9; prev. 50.1) at 10:00 AM
- Construction Spending ( est. 0.6%; prev. 1.8% ) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2465.20, 2407.53 and 2360.25
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2530.02, 2534.99 and 2571.15
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2506.00, the high of 6:00 AM and break below 2467.25, the low of 8:00 AM
- On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June 2020) closed at 2572.50 and the index closed at 2584.59 – a spread of about -12.00 points; futures closed at 2569.75 for the day; the fair value is +2.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -90.50; Dow by -758 and NASDAQ by -217.50
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Sydney closed up
- European markets are lower
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield is at 0.611%, down from March 31 close of 0.698%;
- 30-years is at 1.250%, down from 1.351%
- 2-years yield is at 0.226% down from 0.246%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.385 down from 0.452
- Is at 60.14 up +6.60 from March 31 close; above 5-day SMA;
- Down from all time high of 85.47 on March 18
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Tuesday, March 31 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume. Most indices made small, relatively, harami spinning top candles. Indices opened near the high for the day and them mostly traded down. All S&P sectors closed down for the day except Energy.
The stock market ended the tumultuous first quarter in negative territory on Tuesday, while investors continued to assess the latest news on the coronavirus and the policies proposed to address its impact. The S&P 500 closed near session lows with a 1.6% decline after a brief stay in positive territory early in the session.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.8%, the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.0%, and the Russell 2000 lost 0.5%.[…]
U.S. Treasuries had a relatively quiet day, ultimately closing mixed and little changed. The 2-yr yield declined one basis point to 0.20%, while the 10-yr yield increased three basis points to 0.70%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.2% to 98.99. WTI crude increased 1.5% to $20.52/bbl, although it was up more than 8% in the session.[…]
• The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for March dropped to 120.0 (Briefing.com consensus 110.0) from an upwardly revised 132.6 (from 130.7) for February. The March reading is the lowest since July 2017.
o The key takeaway from the report is that the downturn was not as bad as feared; however, the prevailing expectation is that consumer confidence will get much worse due to the impact of the coronavirus and its effect on consumer attitudes about job security and income growth prospects.
• The Chicago PMI decreased to 47.8 in March (Briefing.com consensus 40.0) from 49.0 in February.
• The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for January increased 3.1% following an upwardly revised 2.8% increase in December (from +2.9%).