Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher
- The odds are for a sideways to an up day with high volatility – watch for break below 2495.00 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- Pending Home Sales (est. -1.8%; prev. 5.2%) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2534.99, 2520.02 and 2500.72
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2577.38, 2615.91 and 2637.01
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2567.75, the high of 1:30 AM and break below 2495.00, the low of 3:30 AM
- On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June 2020) closed at 2532.00 and the index closed at 2541.47 – a spread of about -9.50 points; futures closed at 2524.00 for the day; the fair value is +8.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +33.75; Dow by +266 and NASDAQ by +103.00
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Sydney closed up
- European markets are mixed – U.K., France, Spain and Italy are down; Germany, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are up
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield is at 0.648%, down from March 27 close of 0.749%;
- 30-years is at 1.240%, down from 1.337%
- 2-years yield is at 0.269% up from 0.246%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.379 down from 0.503
- Is at 63.44 down -2.10 from March 27 close; above 5-day SMA;
- Down from all time high of 85.47 on March 18
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday, March 27 in lower volume. All but two – Utilities and Real Estate – S&P sectors closed down for the day. Most major indices made harami like spinning top candle.
For the week, major U.S. indices closed higher in lower volume. Most Asian and European markets also closed up. Mumbai was down. U.S. Dollar and crude oil closed down for the year. Most other commodities closed up. U.S. treasuris closed up.
The S&P 500 declined 3.4% on Friday after a rebound effort faded into the close, as investors took weekly profits. The benchmark index had started the session down 4.2%, then cut its losses to just 0.5% after the House passed the $2 trillion stimulus bill in the afternoon.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.1%, the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.8%, and the Russell 2000 lost 4.1%.[…]
U.S. Treasuries ended the week on a higher note, driving yields lower across the curve. The 2-yr yield declined three basis points to 0.23%, and the 10-yr yield declined six basis points to 0.75%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 1.0% to 98.36. WTI crude lost another 4.2%, or $0.95, settling lower at $21.65/bbl.[…]
• Personal income increased 0.6% m/m in February (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%) while personal spending rose 0.2%, as expected. The PCE Price Index increased 0.1% while the core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2%, both as expected.
o The key takeaway from the report would have been that inflation remains subdued and that the income growth is a plus for consumer spending, but with the subsequent shutdown due to the coronavirus, the key takeaway now is that this February report is cold comfort in a world far different than the one that existed in February.
• The final reading for the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for March was revised down to 89.1 (Briefing.com consensus 95.7) from the preliminary reading of 95.9. The final reading for February was 101.0.
o The key takeaway from the report is that it captures the leading wave of the change in consumer sentiment, which is deteriorating rapidly in the face of the coronavirus impact on the U.S. economy. According to the report, the 11.9-point drop from February is the fourth largest one-month decline in nearly a half century.