Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are erratic;
- The odds are for an up day – a bounce from oversold levels; extreme volatility- watch for break below 2204.50
- No key economic data due:
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2295.56, 2280.52 and 2271.65, the low of February 2017
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2356.30, 2404.30 and 2452.80
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2385.25, the high of 8:00 AM and break below 2204.50, the low of 7:30 AM
- On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June 2020) closed at 2284.25 and the index closed at 2304.92 – a spread of about -16.50 points; futures closed at 2288.50 for the day; the fair value is -4.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 9:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +19.50; Dow by +107 and NASDAQ by +101.00
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly down ; Tokyo was up
- European markets are lower
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield is at 0.828%, down from March 20 close of 0.938%;
- 30-years is at 1.520%, down from 1.556%
- 2-years yield is at 0.294% down from 0.343%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.534 down from 0.595
- Is at 65.69 down -0.35 from March 20 close; below 5-day SMA;
- Near highest levels ever
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday, March 20 in mostly higher volume. NASDAQ Composite traded in lower volume. Indices opened up at the open and then advanced for an hour or so before turning around and accelerating the losses near the close.
For the week, global market declined in double digits. The U.S. indices mostly traded in higher volume for the week. S&P 500 and JNADAQ Composite traded in lower volume during the week. European and Asian markets also declined significantly. Switzerland was up for the week.
US Dollar gained against other major currencies except Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. Most commodities also declined – palladium, wheat, soybeans, coffee and cattle advanced. 10-year Treasury yields were up for the week but 30-year yields were down. 2-year yield were also up. All three yields were up week before too.
An early rebound effort quickly turned into losses on this quadruple-witching expiration Friday, as investors continued to grapple with the persistent shutdown of the economy. The S&P 500 (-4.3%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-4.6%), and Russell 2000 (-4.2%) declined more than 4.0%, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 3.8%.
Losses were widespread, but the energy sector (+1.0%) was able to buck the broader trend, and trim its huge weekly decline, despite an 8% decline in oil prices ($23.73/bbl, -2.17, -8.4%). The utilities (-8.2%) and consumer staples (-6.5%) sectors were today’s weakest performers.
U.S. Treasuries gained buying interest amid the selling in equities and actions taken by the Fed. The 2-yr yield declined three basis points to 0.37%, and the 10-yr yield declined 18 basis points to 0.94%. The U.S. Dollar Index finished flat at 102.72.
• The key takeaway from the report is that existing home sales activity was robust in February based on contract signings that happened in December and January. Next month could look reasonably good, too, but the excitement over this report has been tempered by expectations that a meaningful slowdown will soon follow because of the coronavirus impact.