Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher and volatile;
- The odds are for an up day – a bounce from oversold levels; extreme volatility – watch for break below 2301.25 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- Flash Manufacturing PMI (est. 45.1; prev. 50.7) at 9:45 AM
- Flash Services PMI ( est. 44.1; prev. 49.4) at 9:45 AM
- Richmond Manufacturing Index ( est. -10; prev. -2) at 10:00 AM
- New Home Sales (est. 750k; prev. 764K) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2300.73, 2280.52 and 2256.88
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2356.30, 2404.30 and 2452.80
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2385.25, the high of 8:00 AM on Monday and break below 2301.25, the low of 8:00 AM
- On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June 2020) closed at 2216.75 and the index closed at 2237.40 – a spread of about -20.75 points; futures closed at 2220.50 for the day; the fair value is -3.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +85.50; Dow by +738 and NASDAQ by +287.00
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed up
- European markets are higher
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield is at 0.832%, up from March 23 close of 0.764%;
- 30-years is at 1.413%, up from 1.344%
- 2-years yield is at 0.325% up from 0.318%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.512 up from 0.446
- Is at 55.80 down -5.79 from March 23 close; below 5-day SMA;
- Down from all time high of 85.47 on March 18
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Futures were high before the open but the indices opened up near the previous close.. Indices traded higher briefly in late morning but mostly traded in red. All S&P sectors were down.
The S&P 500 fell 2.9% on Monday in another volatile session, as disappointment over the Senate’s inability to advance its stimulus bill outweighed the unprecedented stimulus measures announced by the Fed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 3.0%, the Russell 2000 declined 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined just 0.3%.
Selling was mostly broad-based with ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finishing lower, particularly the energy (-6.7%) and financials (-6.1%) sectors. The exceptions were the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector (+0.4%) and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (+3.4%).
U.S. Treasuries finished higher amid the continued weakness in equities and the latest actions from the Fed. The 2-yr yield fell eight basis points to 0.29%, and the 10-yr yield fell 17 basis points to 0.76%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.3% to 102.48. WTI crude rose 3.8%, or $0.86, to $23.49/bbl.